AA a fold on FLop MW, when facing a massive overbet??

Onix1708Onix1708 Pune, IndiaRed Chipper Posts: 99 ✭✭
edited April 4 in Online Poker Hands
Hi, m posting this hand.
Being result oriented, i guess i have learnt recently that when facing a massive overbet on flop is is genereally best to have Top 2p+.
But is folding AA here too weak?
Here Goes the Hand
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BB ($3.15) [VPIP: 42.7% | PFR: 0.6% | AGG: 15.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 335]
HJ ($7.32) [VPIP: 21% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 38.3% | 3-Bet: 7.6% | Hands: 686]
HERO ($5.60) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 28.5% | 3-Bet: 5.5% | Hands: 30492]
BTN ($5.18) [VPIP: 19.3% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 21.8% | 3-Bet: 10.4% | Hands: 192]
SB ($5.0) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 27% | 3-Bet: 8.1% | Hands: 2497]
Undefined ($5.84) [VPIP: 25.2% | PFR: 19.5% | AGG: 42.3% | 3-Bet: 6.4% | Hands: 708]

Dealt to Hero: :AC::AS:

Undefined Folds, HJ Raises To $0.13, HERO Raises To $0.44, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.42, BB Folds, HJ Calls $0.31

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.33 effective]
Flop ($1.37): :TH::4C::9D:
SB Checks, HJ Checks, HERO Bets $1.02 (Rem. Stack: 4.14), SB Calls $1.02 (Rem. Stack: 3.54), HJ Raises To $6.88 (allin), HERO Calls $4.14 (allin), SB Folds

Turn ($14.43): :TH::4C::9D::5H:

River ($14.43): :TH::4C::9D::5H::8S:
HJ Shows :TC::9C:

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,194 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So, onix, this is a thread where you can follow Red's advice.

    Make a range for your opponent, and evaluate how your holding (or range of holdings) do against this action including price.

    The many generous members of this forum are only too happy to help evaluate your efforts once you do this.
  • Onix1708Onix1708 Pune, IndiaRed Chipper Posts: 99 ✭✭
    Hi
    Thanks persuado for your suggestion.
    This is an attempt to work using my range first and then my cards.
    So when i did put in my range and 3 bet calling range of these other players and Board.
    i did consider the acton, and check-raise seemed very strong.
    i filtered the range of the guy who check-raised to overpair and 2p+.
    when i consider two pair and overpair plus i seem to have 49.07% equity.
    Pot odds is 3.48 . so i guess it is a call.
    But if we limit 3 CHeckraise range to 2p+ then ofcourse we have 11% equity.
    so a fold.
    Now, the probability of my opponenet having anything less than 2p here is 63%.
    so 37% of time he has one of my opponent has me beat.

    M still struggling how to plug in proper adjustment to understand the data better.
    tips on how to proceed further.

  • Onix1708Onix1708 Pune, IndiaRed Chipper Posts: 99 ✭✭
    In retrospect, my action Meant overpair. Check-raise mean 2p+.
    So logic dictates fold.
    But for better analysis, i have 8 combos of 2p+, 0 for staright or flush draw.
    12 combinations of overpairs that i beat.
    So i beat 12 combos and lose to 8 combos.
    Can someone explain how to poker nerd would analyse this?

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