Bad plays in the long run? $1/3 Live NLHE

FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
Hand 1
Villian is a young guy who is playing well and pushing action at this limp-fest. He is talking to the older guys at table about position, GTO stuff, etc. Seems knowledgeable and wants people to know he is knowledgeable.
Effective Stack ~$400
Hero (BB): :Kd :9c
Pre-flop action: Villain opens $13 UTG+1, folds to me, I defend.
Pre-flop analysis: This is a 3b candidate for me at times with K-blocker, but I do not want to build the pot up, OOP, against someone who quite honestly is probably a better player.
Flop: :5d :7s :Td (Pot $27)
Flop action: Hero check, Villain bets $20, hero calls
Flop analysis: This flop hits my range much better than his. I have more of the sets, 2-pair, combo draws. Plus, I think he fires a c-bet most of the time since he likely faces little resistance against other opponents who under-defend. My plan is to check raise turns I pick up equity or lead river on most run outs that he checks back the turn. I tend to float when OOP on boards that favor my range.
Turn: :9h (Pot: $67)
Turn Action: Hero check, villain bets $50, hero calls
Turn Analysis: I suspect he is double barreling with draws that he picked up on the turn (straight draws) or draws he has had since the flop (flush- but I do block some combos holding the Kd). I think his value double barrel range is Top-Top +. I pick up SDV by getting 2nd-pair with strong kicker. My plan is to call most blank rivers if he fires a reasonable bet size.
River: :3c ($167)
River Action: Hero check, Villain bets $100, Hero snap calls
Villain: :Jc :Qd
Comments: The villain was quite angry with me. Calling me a calling station and a fish and saying next time he is going to stack me with top pair. I just calmly say, I called you because you are a good player (meaning unlike many $1/3 I suspect he is capable of bluffing)
River Analysis: I just think he has too many bluffs here and I only have to be right 27.2% of the time to be +EV. Even if he bluffs just a few draws (JQ, AQd, AJd, A9d, A5d, A4d) and value bets (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 77, AT) that is still 33.3% bluffs that I beat. I think he shows up there with more bluffs though including more Axd, KQ, KJ some percentage of the time.

Hand 2
Villain just sat down at the BB. No information on him, generic 30-40 something white guy who bought in for full $400.
Effective Stack $400
Hero (BUT): :Qc :9s
Pre-flop action: 2 limpers, I raise to $18, BB calls, limpers fold
Pre-flop analysis: I do not like calling this hand and I prefer to play in position heads up with a decent hand where I take the initiative.
Flop: :As :Jd :7c (Pot: $43)
Flop Action: Villain checks, I bet $20, Villain calls
Flop Analysis: I have position and a range advantage so I am c-betting at a high frequency here. When he calls though I think he likely has a pair, so I am probably not barreling unless I pick up some equity on the turn.
Turn: :8h (Pot: $83)
Turn Action: Villain check, Hero bet $50, Villain calls
Turn Analysis: I pick up equity with the inside straight draw and I continue to have positional and range advantage. He has not check-raised yet so I suspect I am against single pair hands and maybe some draws. If he did hit I big hand I suspect he will lead into me some percentage of the time either here on the turn or on the river.
River: :3d (Pot: $183)
River Action: Villain checks, Hero bets $125, Villain fold.
River Analysis: I have no show-down value and I have to continue to story and fire triple barrels here. It worked this time, but in the long run is it +EV at these stakes?

I have gotten some feedback that I play too aggressively and get too sticky on the river at times. These are hands that I consider "standard plays" in my arsenal; however, I think that I have to be introspective in poker and realize that what I am doing may be strategically flawed. I submit this to you all for feedback since most of you have a vast amount more experience/knowledge. Any constructive feedback, positive or negative, is welcomed! Hopefully it is not as surly feedback as Villain in hand #1!

Comments

  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    Neither of these hands should have seen a flop. This would be a fine defend in Hand #1 preflop if the Villain was raising from the button, but definitely not UTG 1. Hand #2 just isn't strong enough, even when attacking limpers.

    I am asking genuine questions here and I am explaining my logic on why both of these went to the flop. Please elaborate on why they are bad plays please so that I do not use poor logic in the future,

    For the K9o hand, lets assign JQo as the bottom of his range and say that he is only opening 9.5% which I suspect is tight for this particular player, but let's make that assumption (Range 66+, AQo+, AJs+, KJs+, KQo+, JQ). The K9o has 34.2% raw equity against that range. The direct pot odds are 37% (10/27), so I can see where that is a poor play mathematically. Furthermore, I concede that I am going to drastically under-realize that equity which is why I actually think that I can put this in my 3-bet range some percentage of the time with the K blocker. I also realize that this is a hand with reverse implied odds. However, the MDF is 63% (17/27) so I have trouble justifying folding 75% of my range if I am folding K9o. I feel like I have to play my range of hands similarly and defend a wider amount given the MDF. Perhaps I am conceptualizing MDF incorrectly and applying it incorrectly? I do think that maybe I should either 3-bet or fold here though now I am analyzing it more because it is a hand that is going to play poorly against this particular range with reverse implied odds. Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

    In terms of the Q9o hand that is a hand I am going to play from the button with a mixed strategy pending on the profile of the limpers as well as the SB/BB. The SB was not going to 3-bet me often and the BB was an unknown 1/3 player that I assume is not going to 3b the BB often. The limpers were folding often pre-flop to raises and playing fit-or-fold on flop. If I can play in position, I am comfortable when playing post-flop that I think that I will make it profitable. Including Q9o is ~opening 25-30% of hands pre against the 2 limpers (MP). I open about 40% of hands from the button so I am narrowing down my range to adjust for limpers. I play a very aggressive style when in position. Is there a mathematical error when I attack limpers with Q9o or is it that we have stylistic differences in our approach. Are you saying that Q9o is too wide because it undeniably is or because it is in conflict with your strategy which I assume is much tighter pre-flop than I employ? If it is a poor strategic move please expand so that I may understand why and I can consider re-adjusting some of my overall strategy.

    Thank you for your response.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭✭
    You are applying MDF incorrectly in your above rationale. V is risking 13 to win 3, so it needs to work 13/16, or 81% of the time if he wants to exploitatively make this play with ATC. This means that at least one player behind him needs to find a call 19% of the time to keep him from exploiting the whole lot of you. I think between the 6 of you, you can muster up that much defense. It's important to note that the onus is distributed amongst everyone, not just the final player if no one has continued.

    I also think it's important to note in your second hand that if you are opening as loose as Q9o over multiple limpers, I do not think you have range advantage over a BB flatting range on a AJ7 board. His range is going to contain a lot of Ax, but yours contains a lot of additional chaff.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Thank you for very much for taking the time to explain that. I literally just folded K9 versus MP in BB because of this. I'll tighten up more against limpers too. Appreciate the input. This makes more sense now, I've def spewed off a lot of BB given my misunderstanding of MDF!
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Would you fold the Q9 here or would you ever overlimp?
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭✭
    I personally would just fold Q9o. All you really have going for you is position and assumedly weak limping ranges. If people are limp-folding an inordinate amount it's probably not bad, but in my experience you'll often get at least one caller in this setup (don't forget the blinds can always find a playable hand, like happened here.)
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭✭
    @Phil Ebbs I'm curious how you're ranging BB. I made some assumptions and quickly ran the below ranges through an app on my phone.

    Button Open Range
    zx59mqoi9l9r.png

    BB Flat Range
    fa0ybdlztgav.png

    This is about as loose as I felt comfortable assuming an unknown flatting range. I set AKs and AKo to calling 50%.

    With these two ranges, equities are about 50/50.
    0xlq5jzoj7k8.png

    It also provided this breakdown by hand strength, which I assume is on the river after more cards come out, since it includes numbers for made straights.

    Button
    glz9g4js4lfa.png

    BB
    2qzr5olf6anp.png

    This looks more range neutral to me, though if I tighten the BB range more and loosen the button range more, it begins to swing more to BB having advantage.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Roblivion wrote: »
    @Phil Ebbs I'm curious how you're ranging BB. I made some assumptions and quickly ran the below ranges through an app on my phone.

    Button Open Range
    zx59mqoi9l9r.png

    BB Flat Range
    fa0ybdlztgav.png

    This is about as loose as I felt comfortable assuming an unknown flatting range. I set AKs and AKo to calling 50%.

    With these two ranges, equities are about 50/50.
    0xlq5jzoj7k8.png

    It also provided this breakdown by hand strength, which I assume is on the river after more cards come out, since it includes numbers for made straights.

    Button
    glz9g4js4lfa.png

    BB
    2qzr5olf6anp.png

    This looks more range neutral to me, though if I tighten the BB range more and loosen the button range more, it begins to swing more to BB having advantage.

    1) I don't understand your strength breakdown, since it gives full house probabilities, and boats aren't even possible on this board.

    Like I said, I don't quite understand either, but I assume it's taking into consideration all possible turn and river runouts and giving percentages on river based on that. Unfortunately, not quite as useful as just showing what hands are made on the flop.

    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    2) The key range assumptions here are that BB should almost never ever show up with AA, JJ, AK, AQs and AJs. When he doesn't have these and doesn't X-raise flop, he is extremely extremely capped. I don't understand what hands you have BB 3betting here. Are you saying he 3bets QQ+, AKo and AKs 50/50? If so, that is ridiculously too tight.

    That is why I asked about what range assumptions you are making about the player in the BB. I made assumptions based on what I've seen in general 1/3 player pool population. I think the average player 3-bets QQ+, and often just flats JJ and AK. Further, I think hands like AQ and AJ are almost always going to be the heart of his BB flatting range. As far as not x-raising flop, that's a different story all together - I am simply talking about whether button has range advantage on the flop.
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    3) raw equities is not a good way to look at bluffing frequencies. Here's a quick toy game for you to think about. Imagine you raise and I call in BB, and the board comes 258r. You can now choose between one of two ranges, and I will get the other range: Range 1 is [QQ,KK,AA], Range 2 is [44,55]. Which one of those ranges in equilab shows higher EV? Now, given 3 streets of betting, which range would you rather have?

    I realize raw equity is not a good way to determine bluffing frequency. That is why I included the imperfect hand strength breakdowns as a bit more of a guidepost. Of course given the option, I would rather play a range where a third of it is made up of nut hands. I think part of our disconnect here is that
    A.) We disagree how possible it is for BB to have nuttish hands, and
    B.) I think BB's range has a larger percentage of nut hands than button's. Obviously, the more combos added to the button's range, the more dilluted it becomes. If we strip out some of those Q9o, K9o opens the percentage of nut hands on this board goes up and then I start coming around to agreeing we have range advantage.

    So, like I said, I think it is primarily a difference of range assumptions. What sort of range are you giving an unknown 1/3 BB flat?
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    As for a button flatting range, I think estimating it at 40% is a reasonable assumption. If your 1/3 players are slowplaying JJ, i'm willing to bet that they are calling any suited king, Q7s+, and all suited gappers.

    Heh, yeah it appears we play in some pretty different games. If you're assuming a 40% defense, I absolutely concede that button will have range advantage whether BB 3-bets JJ/AK or not.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    Hand 1

    My plan is to check raise turns I pick up equity or lead river on most run outs that he checks back the turn. I tend to float when OOP on boards that favor my range.
    Turn: :9h (Pot: $67)
    ![/b]

    I think its problematic that we have a plan here but dont follow through with it. According to our plan this should be a check raise. Whether or not a c/r is good here is up for discussion.... But having a plan and not following through in real time is the same as not having a plan.

  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭✭
    This is not a heads up pot where the button opens 4x. This is a pot with two limpers where the button opens 6x. In that case, yes, I think BB is probably defending about 20%, which I think is fine since the limpers will often come along and button range will be somewhat tighter for the same reason. I only advocated folding Q9o pre when there are already two limpers. If we're opening, I'm raising this hand all day.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭✭✭

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