Awkward stack size on the turn; what bet sizing?

thewolfmanthewolfman Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
edited April 9 in Online Poker Hands
Hi Guys,

I found myself in a weird spot where I literally blanked. Hand as follows:

6-max, 0.25/0.50, 100 BB effective
Villain in HJ (93.60 stack)
Hero in CO (50 stack)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qc As]

Villain open raises $1.56 to $2.06
Hero: raises $2.36 to $4.42
Everyone else folds
Villain: calls $2.36

*** FLOP *** [3s Qh 9h]

Villain: bets $2.82
Thoughts: a donkbet here either means for me a defensive bet (to draw) or a provoking bet with a set. This last one seems unlikely. So I raise, to find out.
Hero: raises $4.84 to $7.66
Villain calls: calls $4.84
Thoughts: now by calling I am pretty certain he has a draw.

*** TURN *** [3s Qh 9h] [6c]
Villain: checks
Hero???
Thoughts: at this point I have 37.92 behind, and the pot is 24.91. This felt for me at the time as a weird stack size because betting a small percentage of the pot would entice him to call correctly with his draw, right? A bigger percentage would leave me with an awkward stacks vs pot ratio on the river.

Any thoughts?
I ended up overbetting (dont ask me why, I felt I was stuck in a spiral of conflicting thoughts and as a result made a mistake there), but anyway thats why it is a valuable hand for me.

Thank you!

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    It's helpful if you post stack sizes at the beginning of the hand. I suspect anything north of ~ $16 and you're making money from his draws.
  • thewolfmanthewolfman Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    MichaelB wrote: »
    It's helpful if you post stack sizes at the beginning of the hand. I suspect anything north of ~ $16 and you're making money from his draws.

    Thanks! I edited the stack sizes in the post.
    16 is actually a good suggestion! If I would bet more, like 20, it would leave me with 18 and a 65 dollar pot. If a draw completes, am I then committed to call an all-in?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    Sitting on the river getting an excellent price when the draw has come in in one of the toughest spots in poker because there's no good answer. That's one of the biggest reasons I play live rather than online. I can get a measure of the player visually. In my early years I folded way too much in that spot, now I probably call too much (no doubt a result of me projecting my own bluffing capability onto the other guy).

    If you have them, I'd recommend playing around with range calculators and seeing what kinds of hands you can call with when faced with odds of 5:1 or even better on the river.

    But anyway, the real crux of the hand is, by overbetting this turn, yes, you charge the maximum amount for their draws, but you also run the risk of making it prohibitively expensive, essentially forcing your opponent to play perfectly against you.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭✭
    Would you have this sizing issue if your 3bet bet sizing was better (bigger) ?
  • thewolfmanthewolfman Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Would you have this sizing issue if your 3bet bet sizing was better (bigger) ?

    Ohhhh..... wow... crap you're right. I mean, you are referring to raising his donkbet bigger. That's actually it. I need to think ahead when I'm raising his donkbet, make it bigger, so that I can pot bet shove the turn.

    Good stuff. Epiphany right there. Thanks.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 10
    No, no, raising the donkbet isn't a 3bet. Here the only 3bet happening is preflop, when you raise to 4.42$.

    This preflop raise (3bet) sizing is to me way too small. You give Villain a very good price / very good pot odds to call: "only" having to call 2.36$ to win 9.59$ or 24.61% pot odds! Villain only need to win 25% of the time to be +EV by calling your 3bet.
    Then, do V really fold often ? I don't think so... and if you don't have much / no fold equity, then what your bet is realizing except bloating the pot ? (And would you really size this low if you had like a bluff hand like A5s or 76s?)

    I'd more size your raise between 6$ and 8$ (between 3x and 4x his opening bet). Then you do put V (the lower part of his range) under pressure and you have FE. Also SPR - and the right moment to shove - would be different ;)
  • thewolfmanthewolfman Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    edited April 10
    Oh. Hehe ok thanks - brainfart. I always button click to 9 BB in position and 11 BB out of position (+2 BB for every player). In this hand example I obviously overlooked the fact that V open raised to a little bit over 4 BB, thus making my 9 BB 3-bet too low and giving him too good of a price. Thanks! Case closed.

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 470 ✭✭✭
    thewolfman wrote: »
    Thoughts: a donkbet here either means for me a defensive bet (to draw) or a provoking bet with a set. This last one seems unlikely. So I raise, to find out.

    This seems weird. You try to break down what this donk bet means (i.e. what range he has), and you argue that it's unlikely he would do this with a set. Yet you raise to find this out, wiping away all the reasoning you have done up to this point.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    edited April 12
    thewolfman wrote: »
    Oh. Hehe ok thanks - brainfart. I always button click to 9 BB in position and 11 BB out of position (+2 BB for every player). In this hand example I obviously overlooked the fact that V open raised to a little bit over 4 BB, thus making my 9 BB 3-bet too low and giving him too good of a price.

    At 50NL, you didn't just do that. You let guys at the table know you're not paying attention, are still learning, and don't understand sizings. It's dangerous, especially when you're betting into unknowns. This is just after all the other solid gold facts Red pointed out.

    As played, this is a check back.
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    Consider raising flop for equity denial if you're far enough ahead of his range, or allow him a little more space to keep barreling. Raising to find out if your ranging process was correct isn't going to affect your EV

    His preflop sizing and the flop donk are two fishy actions. If I had one piece of advice for the players on this forum, it would be to stop trying to put fish on specific ranges. It doesn't matter as much as you might think to have a concrete grasp of what he's showing up with, it's more useful to think about how far ahead you are instead. With TPTK on a board that has no straights and few 2p, we're always quite far ahead of a range like this, he's going to have a lot of merged stuff, equity driven bluffs, and some complete air. Comparing that to the ~10 combos we lose to, he shouldn't have a hard time overshooting his "bluff allowance"

    Can you feel how dangerous it is to say "He's got sets and draws, and when he just calls my raise he's only got draws"? Without some sort of evidence, this type of ranging will cause a lot of inaccuracy and confusion

    I'm cool with raising flop considering how much we can deny from with the Q93hh board allowing for a ton of draws. On less dynamic boards, maybe we should favor calling to allow him to keep pushing his low-equity range

    Your turn jam is an overplay, while it denies effectively it loses value from so many weaker holdings that we'd be happy to see call for a regular-large bet sizing. I'd bet 18-22 and not think too much about the river sizing scheme against this profile. If he lead jams the worst river, we can probably fold. If it bricks off, we can jam for the 2/5 pot type bet left and maximize value on his merged holdings

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