Bluffing river with blocking Jacks?

dihlunddihlund Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
edited April 9 in Live Poker Hands
Hi guys, I was hoping to get some feedback on a hand that was greatly disagreed upon in my group. It's from halfway into a local MTT against a middle-aged, semi-conservative but fundamentally solid rec at my local club. We've played a few times and he likely views me as less experienced but able to pull a move. I've tried to describe the hand succinctly and added some thoughts and questions I had below. Please let me know your thoughts - I appreciate any input and feedback!

Seat 6: HERO (60,000)
Seat 7: BTN (55,000)
SB 300, BB 600, BTN ante 600
The button is in seat #7

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Jh Jd]

UTG folds
MP calls 600
HJ folds
HERO raises to 2,000
BTN raises to 5,500
SB folds, BB folds, MP folds
HERO calls 3,500.
Pot is 13,100.

*** FLOP *** [6c Th Qh]
HERO bets 8,000, BTN calls 8,000
Pot is 29,100.

*** TURN *** [8s]
HERO checks, BTN checks

*** RIVER *** [Kh]
HERO bets 20,000, BTN calls 20,000
BUN shows [Ad Js] and wins the pot of 69,100.

— Thoughts —
Flop: I view BUNs flop-range as relatively wide as he might have raised pre either for value, to re-steal or simply to pressure an inexperienced big-stack who opened late on a table of 7. So I cbet 60% of the pot, expecting him to fold trash, low A2-9, low pockets and low connectors, maybe some Tx; call and pay for another card with medium pairs and all the draws he can have; and raise sets and overpairs, vs which I want to fold.

Turn 8s: I check, thinking he will almost only call or raise with better, so I would rather call a bet and go for show-down. When he checks I think straight draw, non-ace flush draws, Tx or mid-pair with a straight draw.

River Kh: I think BUNs range has many pairs, two pairs, some sets, non-nut flushes and maybe 79 for the straight. But, I block many top hands with my red jacks (AJ, J9, JXh). I don't believe BUN will call half his stack with a mediocre hand here, so he should fold often when I bluff 20k into 29.1k (~70% pot). He is set back, takes a minute before exclaiming "you never have the flush here" and calling with AJ.

Questions:
- First of all, any thought on my analysis? Any gaps I should think about?
– I view the flop bet as being for value, but does BUN actually continue wide enough here to make it valuable?
– I suspect I should have continued to bet on the turn, as the 8s is fairly safe, but again, would he continue with enough worse hands?
– River: do I "never have the flush here"? And does BUN fold often enough to make this a profitable bet?

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭✭
    edited April 10
    Consider a 4bet pre?

    Also, I'm no donk bet expert, but isn't this a poor flop to do it on? What are you trying to accomplish here? You say you want him to fold a lot of the hands you crush, and you're just going to fold to any raise? Would you also bet KQ? And if so, would you fold if he raised you? Maybe donking is all the rage in tournaments and I don't know what I'm talking about.

    Bet the turn? Maybe? You did pick up equity and it's unlikely to have improved his hand. Pots already huge though, and even though you took back the initiative, you're still OOP.

    On the river... I don't know what's going on there. All you know about his hand is that he doesn't have a set of Queens, Tens, or 8s, because he's probably checking back everything else. And he's right you don't ever have a flush, so I don't know why you think he'd fold one of the two cards that are likely to improve his hand. I mean, AK has to call here, right?

    I'm interested to hear what the rest of your group thought.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    edited April 10
    Flop
    I could see leading. Your hand is vulnerable and you want to protect your equity/get value from a bunch of stuff. I haven't studied leading much so I personally don't have a leading range, I just check everything for the most part and proceed from there. The thing with leading is that it really forks your range and makes it hard to balance, but I'm not sure if your opponent is aware enough to take advantage of that.

    Turn
    I think that there is a ton of worse stuff that can call you on the turn. Pretty much all of the one pair hands have at least a gutshot to go along with the pair, which should be enough to get you a call. So after leading the flop, I'd lead the turn for value/protection. Yes, some stuff got there with the eight on the turn, but I think you still have enough to go for a value bet.

    River
    When your opponent checks back the turn, I take that to mean that he doesn't have anything too strong on the turn (straights, sets, two pair, TPTK), because all of that is vulnerable to a lot of rivers.

    Still, I don't see much of a reason to bet this river. If you're going for value, I don't see stuff like AT or 99 calling. If you're looking to bluff, I can't really think of much that is folding that you're behind. Yes, stuff like 87 is folding, but that doesn't help you because you beat 87. If you're betting as a bluff, you want to fold out stuff that beats you. I think that that is a key point here. The obvious choice there is a stray queen that is afraid of the king, but most queens in your opponents range make two pair at this point. I just don't see enough combos that you can get to fold to justify a bluff here. So I think it's a check.

    Now that I think about it, your opponent 3bet preflop, so we can probably use that info to narrow his range considerably.

    I'm not sure why your opponent thinks you never have the flush here. You could have decided to stab at the flop and then give up on a turn card that you don't think you could get enough folds on, but then bet thee river for value when you make your flush. Maybe your opponent thinks you don't lead with flush draws.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,889 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Anything else aside, as it is a very nuanced spot and you have taken an unusual line, i would point out that the indifference point for him folding, given that he can have significant parts of this board combined with what you want from your nut hands, is going to lead this river bet to go into a big bet category. That river lead is too small, in other words.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,705 -
    Post Flop:

    I am not a fan of the donk lead. Whenever I see this, the lead's justification comes down to: "I wanted to see where I am at." The problem is the answer is usually "You are behind." Given your check on the turn, this was the case.

    I do not see a point to making the pot bigger with a hand that does not tend to win against a stronger range. Yes, you are ahead of Hearts, two overs, OESD and in this case a gutshot with an over. However on balance when called you are often behind a simple Queen. Most of the things that call you "behind" have solid equity, and often robust equity that is far easier to play, in position versus your non-robust equity.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
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  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,923 -
    Whenever I see the word "bluffing" in the context of a tournament hand, it never seems to work out well for Hero.
    Moderation In Moderation

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