Flopped Top Set and hating life?

TheGrindersCookbookTheGrindersCookbook Merrimack, NHRed Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
Ah, to flop a set.. its so great sometimes.. other times not so much...

Hero: $205
V1: $355
V2: $170

V1: Just sat at the table. I have never seen this player before. He flopped top set the hand before on a broadway board. An OMC jammed his entire stack on the flop to his $50 (2x pot bet) and got called with AK and lost. I don't think he is on tilt. It just painted a picture in my mind that this guy is going to pay you off when you have it, and will be overly aggressive even with made hands.

V2: A pure sports fan dad. Another player I have never seen before but made some very questionable calls that worked out in his favor. At one point he called off an all in with QTs OOP and stacked 2 people who were also all in with AA and AK, respectively. He had a much bigger stack earlier in the day, but was slowly letting it bleed making more decisions like these.

In this hand, hero is in the cutoff with: :Ts :TH:

V1 raises to $10, V2 calls, and I also elect to call here. With stacks the way they are, I can say that if I hit my hand, I think V1 will be doing a majority of the betting here for me. I can make a nice reraise to his aggressive flop bet and either get paid the max or take it down there. For that reason, I elect to call.

Flop: :Td :8d :9c

Great! We flop top set. Let's see what happens. As I guessed, V1 makes a 2/3 pot bet at $20. V2 calls and here is where I think hard about a raise. This board is super wet. We have the best of it right now, however I think I can play for stacks on a later street if the board pairs, or as my initial plan was, let V1 hang himself. I elect to flat here.

Turn: :Qh

Very interesting spot. Now we have 4 to straight, the flush draws, and an over. I am still not too concerned yet. Plan is to flat a bet from either of them. V1 continues his ways and makes it $50 now. Against this player, I am calling all day, every day, however it is not his action that messes me up. V2 jams his entire stack. I tank for a lonnggggg time.

Hero?

Comments

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 15
    Your thinking is pretty jumbled, to wit:
    JSnow wrote: »
    if I hit my hand, I think V1 will be doing a majority of the betting here for me. I can make a nice reraise to his aggressive flop bet and either get paid the max or take it down there....Great! We flop top set....V1 makes a 2/3 pot be...We have the best of it right now, however I think I can play for stacks on a later street if the board pairs, or as my initial plan was, let V1 hang himself. I elect to flat here.

    If a plan makes sense preflop, why does it all of a sudden not make sense postflop? What exactly about pairing the board is going to make people want to play for stacks? You went set mining preflop rather than raising specifically so that you could raise an aggressive player's flop bet, then when it happens now you think slowplaying on the wettest board imaginable is a good idea.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    Based on your analysis of your opponents in this hand, it seems like they would be willing to pay you off with made hands on this flop. You note both are making suspect decisions, why not start building a pot?

    With top set and an SPR of 5.33 based on the 160 remaining for V2, we should be playing for stacks here. Slowplaying here doesn't make a ton of sense. There are a lot of scaryish cards that can come that will make us not want to get stacks in with our set (as you've experienced) but also there's a lot of cards that can come that might shut down our action and make our villains inclined to fold.

    That could be: any diamond, any card that makes four to a straight or a paired board. You seem to think that a paired board would be ideal but when the board pairs, any draw knows they aren't drawing to the nuts, and while that might not make them inclined to fold, it might make them less inclined to chase on the river should the draw not complete on the turn but instead pairs the board.

    So you have a spot where you want to get some money in since we are going to have the best hand here an overwhelming majority of the time and are facing two villains we have noted are calling off fairly wide. Why wait to play for stacks?
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 209 ✭✭

    With top set and an SPR of 5.33 based on the 160 remaining for V2, we should be playing for stacks here. Slowplaying here doesn't make a ton of sense.

    ^^^^ This ^^^^

    You chose to play at this SPR by flatting PF. It's not a great number for TT as an overpair and not so great for set mining.

    I'm shoving this flop every time. I'll also do it with straights and stuff like Ad Jd.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,755 -
    Pre-flop is fine, though you can consider a 3-bet squeeze. I am indifferent, leaning towards a call.

    On the flop, when we call, there is $90 in the pot. If a pot sized raise represents the largest "reasonable" bet, then we could reasonably make it $110 (that is $90 on top for a PSR) with $80 back. We have no fold equity going forward with that $80 in what would be a $270 pot if we are heads up.

    We are betting to make the pot bigger in case we win, and to deny equity from the multitude of draws. Even against the nuts, we have solid equity.

    I suspect most hands that will call a raise to $90 will be price insensitive so it really does not matter what you raise to here, you are unconditionally committed to the pot and so are they much of the time.

    It does not matter a whole lot, but a jam here will sometimes look suspicious and get called because "Hero just wants to gamble with a draw."
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • TheGrindersCookbookTheGrindersCookbook Merrimack, NHRed Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭

    With top set and an SPR of 5.33 based on the 160 remaining for V2, we should be playing for stacks here. Slowplaying here doesn't make a ton of sense.

    ^^^^ This ^^^^

    You chose to play at this SPR by flatting PF. It's not a great number for TT as an overpair and not so great for set mining.

    I'm shoving this flop every time. I'll also do it with straights and stuff like Ad Jd.

    @Jordan Power @Doug Hull @In The Dark Here is my problem with jamming here.. action goes $20, call.. and I have the second nuts and I am going to rip it in for almost $200? Great, I won a pot which I completely understand since both may fold, but I completely cap my upside with this monster. How many cards can come where I can get another street of value vs cards that hurt me?

    Any diamond, a 7, jack or queen. assuming all are alive. That would be 12 + 4 + 4 = 20. So yes, a lot COULD come that hurt me, but a lot more could come that help me get another street of value. It just seems to me that jamming this spot completely shuts down the hand and I am only getting called by straights or as Doug mentioned, the 'hero just wanted to gamble'. Assuming the turn comes out anything else, I can now jam it regardless of what V's do.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    edited April 15
    I think the key here is that your read on both V is that they're calling very wide. I can think of a host of bad regs I meet in my games that would see a jam here as "a clear bluff" and would make the hero call and then be baffled I didn't "go for value" by raising smaller. So the jam can in a weird way incentivize some bad players to call even lighter than they would otherwise.

    A jam isn't going to be a standard play here (in my opinion) but you have a player who wants to get it in with QTs pre flop. Do they want to fold a draw here? Do they want to fold a pair? Probably not.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭✭
    Not raising this flop is criminal
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 15
    JSnow wrote: »
    @Jordan Power @Doug Hull @In The Dark Here is my problem with jamming here.. action goes $20, call.. and I have the second nuts and I am going to rip it in for almost $200? Great, I won a pot which I completely understand since both may fold, but I completely cap my upside with this monster.

    What? No, you don't cap your upside at all. You're underestimating what hands and draws your opponents can have here and what they'll call with, and what hands and draws you should be shoving with.

    Not to be nitty but technically you have the 4th nuts here to begin with. It's not at all unreasonable to be losing to QJ or 76 or even J7s for that matter. But even if you shove there are plenty of hands that not only will call, but some which will call correctly based on pot odds.

    And that doesn't even cover the cases such as 88, 99 or JT, all of which are probably calling as well. Against a hand like :9D: :JD: it's almost a coinflip. Not to mention AA, KK, QQ, and JJ which are probably all calling here as well (again, because the board is so wet, you can have big draws and combo hands as well and they know that.)

    And look what happened by slowplaying your hand - you got yourself into a position where you're actually thinking about folding out all of your equity. Without even saying whether you should fold or not, you should avoid this situation to begin with - not out of fear of difficult decisions, but out of the math of the situation. You're letting them dictate and leverage the one-card-to-come situation against you on the turn rather than dictating terms yourself. You took a situation where you could have had maybe a 3-way all in on the flop with 2 cards to come (easy call with pot odds if you're behind) and turned it into a situation where you're maybe heads up with 1 card to come. Now if you assume you're behind to a straight, you're getting exactly 2:1 on the call I think which is not good enough and you have to fold.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • TheGrindersCookbookTheGrindersCookbook Merrimack, NHRed Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    For the conclusion of this hand, I did fold.

    V1: shows JT for the straight
    V2: shows QQ for the set
    River bricked

    I think the way I played it made me lose the least.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 15
    JSnow wrote: »
    I think the way I played it made me lose the least.

    I disagree - you could have folded preflop.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    JSnow wrote: »
    For the conclusion of this hand, I did fold.

    V1: shows JT for the straight
    V2: shows QQ for the set
    River bricked

    I think the way I played it made me lose the least.

    Perhaps that is true in the vacuum of this hand, but in the long run, would you not win more by building a pot with a monster?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If I knew those were the hands my opponents held, my chips would have gone into the pot on the flop so fast they'd make skid marks. It's outrageously profitable.

    TsTh 66%
    JT 21%
    QQ 14%

    (Against JT alone, with QQ out of the deck, you are 78%)

    Very high chance they're both calling (both of those hands are mentioned in my previous post where I said both are probably calling.)

    main pot: $510
    side pot: $70

    You have 66% of main pot = $337
    You have 78% of side pot = $53
    total $390

    EV = $390 - $205 = $185!!

    Shove the flop and this is a virtual double up situation.
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 71 ✭✭
    You should probably raise the flop to 80-120. As played, it was unlikely that anyone had the nuts, so you need to charge them to draw. You can't play to minimize losses, you have to play to make the best decisions. The best decision is to always get more money into the pot when you're likely ahead.

    With that said, I'm not sure what I should have done on the turn when the straight draws get there. From a pot odds perspective you're probably going to have to call if you had raised to 80 and gotten called by both players, but once the major draw comes in, it would have been a tough spot
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭✭✭
    osirus0830 wrote: »
    You should probably raise the flop to 80-120.

    Let's start with the $120 figure. You started the hand with $205 and V2 $170. On the flop after the bet and call and your call, there is $90 in the pot, $140 left for V2 and $175 effective for V1. You're now suggesting we raise $100 more, which if called in both places would put $390 in the pot leaving $75 and $40 behind respectively? Doug Hull already explained this idea.

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