Top pair poker math advice

SixthStreetSixthStreet Red Chipper Posts: 242 ✭✭
$1/2 7 handed.
1 limper
Hero Co ($180) :Ad :Kh bets $10
Btn SB folds
BB, limper call pot ($31)
flop :8d :Kd :3s
checks to hero Bets $17
BB folds V1($120) calls (pot$65)
turn :8h
V1 leads $17 Hero calls (pot $99)
River :6c
V1 leads $37
Hero?
So question is about pot odds vs his bluff %
I put his flop call on flush draw :8d block lots off combos of 8's after seeing turn
With bet size on river How often do i have to catch him bluffing To be +EV$
He is reg and one of his MO is to lead flops with weak flush draws and take small pots down big bets.calling seemed more like big flush draw or worse K. 2 pair should be rare here.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,923 -
    A small donk lead on the turn when the middle card pairs is fairly often a programmed play. Add in worse Ks I don't see ever folding the river.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • SixthStreetSixthStreet Red Chipper Posts: 242 ✭✭
    Thanks Kat never thought of this as a programmed play. He is in his late 70's and has played game long time and there is not study time in his game. Probably true for most the +70 crowd I play with, they just plays a lot poker.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,970 -
    What do you suspect happens if you raise the turn to $75?
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • SixthStreetSixthStreet Red Chipper Posts: 242 ✭✭
    James. to be honest I find this an issue I trying to get over. It is one tactic that has worked online, but for some reason I rarely do live is to raise the donk bet. A leak I think is they call so wide live That I have believed their donk bets to be made hands. That being said a raise lets me know where I am at in hand. I would have to say the I would get my share of folds and calls mean they still drawing or have a K they can't seem to find fold button. If they have the Proverbial made hand they will let me know. This guy in particular has balls in this game with his stack size he could shove my raise and chase his draw, which math wise I would be calling about $25 bucks. That being said getting it all in on turn with high % of hands I ahead of which is not a bad thing either. That way I get max value out of my hand.
    let me know if I am looking at this right, because this is becoming a common spot of trouble for me.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,970 -
    I think you're starting to visualize it more correctly =) Letting Vs set their own pricing on draws is something I try to actively avoid tbh.
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • SixthStreetSixthStreet Red Chipper Posts: 242 ✭✭
    James . I am trying to put more time into going through these spots and get a more of a good plan so don't get lost when these spots come up.
    Thanks

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file