A5o vs Gambler and Dad

TheGrindersCookbookTheGrindersCookbook Merrimack, NHRed Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
Hey All -

First off, just got CORE and loving it! Wanted to incorporate some of it in my session last night so I was focusing on bet sizing and equity calculations. I want to see if I made a mistake in this hand or it is a cooler?

Hero: $285
V1: $85
V2: $330

Villian 1: Has been at the table for about an hour, rather quiet dad. Sat with $150 and was not aggressive, more of a fit or fold type of player.

VIllian 2: Just sat however was known to some other players at the table. He definitely believed the game included more luck than skill based on a hand I saw. He faced a $15 preflop raise and called it. Flop came K2X, guy bet $20 and this villian jammed on him for his remaining stack. Guy knew him and called the bet and he showed K2o. This is important because I believe this Villians range to be super wide as he is not focusing on ranges but more 'feel'.

OK, so, the hand.

Hero gets dealt: :As :5c on the button

UTG+1 is V1 and he limps, and V2 limps. Given that I have a general idea of what these ranges could NOT include in this situation, I have to believe I have the best starting hand here, although not a great one. My plan is to raise the button, try to get V1 out of the hand and then play V2 accordingly. For that reason, I decide to make it $7 raise. Another point about this table, I have realized that $12 seems to be the threshold to force folds here. Since V2 range is so wide, I would rather keep him in because I don't believe a strong A to be in his range here, and I think i can value bet an A if it hits the flop. Both players call.

Flop: :5h :5d :7h

Great, I think this is a perfect spot for me to get some value. UTG+1 player bets $10 on this board, V2 flat. Assuming that he can be betting his hearts, a 7 or an over pair here, I do not want these to see a turn for this price. For that reason, I decide to make it $55 and price out the draws to not be able to continue profitably.

At this point, V1 called $7 preflop, and $10 just now, leaving him with just under $70. He has to jam here if he wants to continue. After some thought, that is what he does. V2 calls, and I call.

Turn: :6c

If V1 was open ended, had an over or was chasing a flush, they have missed. V2 could also apply to these situations as only 12 combos that include a 5 remain. There many more flush draw or straight draw combos here. V2 checks again. Once again, I do not want this player hanging on chasing for the right price. At this point, our pot is $231 (I think). With one street to go, assuming he is looking for that heart, there are only 9 alive. That would give him 18% equity. I can't imagine 34, 46, calling a preflop raise but they are there. I focus on the 18% number. 18% of a $241 is $43 roughly. I decide to bet $75, making this call, once again, unprofitable for him. He elects to call.

The river comes: :8h

Wonderful, maybe he just got there. However, to my amazement, he almost immediately checks. Deciding on a shove is tough, he could be looking to check/raise me, which I definitely do not want, especially since I think it is the only hand that is calling here and not raising. I check it back.

He goes 'I got lucky' and shows :5s :9d for a rivered straight.

Can I change anything here?

Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 406 ✭✭✭
    edited April 19
    (Edited to reflect better pot sizes as I had forgotten about V1s all in :) )

    So first thing is the preflop decision facing two limpers. I believe your game is 1/2, not 1/3? Going to proceed as if it is 1/2.

    When you open to $7, there is already $7 in the pot, so when you open this on the button, you give the following odds:

    SB: $6 to play for $14
    BB and limpers: $5 to play for $14

    And if any of those players call, of course, the players behind get even better odds.

    At most low limit games, I don't think you are going to see a ton of folds here. So I would take the open raise to $14ish and try to increase our odds of winning the pot right there.

    On the flop, the pot when it gets to you is $44. So when you raise to $55, you create a pot size of $99.

    You note that you have raised enough to not give the correct price for someone on a heart draw, but this is not true. Both V need to call 45 more to win 99. If we plug that in to the formula to calculate the equity to continue (Risk/[Risk+Reward]), we come up with:

    45/(45+99) which comes out to 31.25%. So any V on an OESD or a heart draw is actually getting the odds to continue here. Good idea to raise, but I would pump it up to $70, personally.

    Now on the turn, we certainly want to bet for value here with our trips. But I have the pot at $238 with V1 going all in. So when you bet $75, again, consider the odds you are laying to your opponent. After your $75, there is $313 in the middle for V to win. He needs only 19.3 percent equity to continue. Granted you are correct that it is not a long term profitable call based on the raw equity he needs to continue, but if V has a pair and flush draw, he is unlikely to fold here. V could also reasonably see you as bluffing here some of the time. And you still have decent money left behind to win, so he is not going to fold here with a heart draw IMO.

    On the river, you have $148 left by my count and a pot over $400. So I think I like the decision to check back. We have loads of SDV and I do not see us getting looked up by something beat here too often, maybe a worse 5, but I think a lot of players are going to see 4 to a straight and fold a ton of the time. That's my two cents.

    But look at what V shows up with: 59. A bad hand. I think the way you avoid this situation is raising bigger preflop and not worrying so much about people folding out their garbage when you raise. Stealing the blinds plus 2 extra BB is not a bad thing.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Every time one of you monkeys calls a raise in an opened pot an open, the poker gods take special note of you.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 406 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Every time one of you monkeys calls a raise in an opened pot an open, the poker gods take special note of you.

    Ah so that's why I was card dead this weekend. Is there a ritual you can recommend to appease the poker gods? I'll clean up the verbiage, for sure, but anything to remove myself from their view would be appreciated.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,013 -
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Every time one of you monkeys calls a raise in an opened pot an open, the poker gods take special note of you.

    Ah so that's why I was card dead this weekend. Is there a ritual you can recommend to appease the poker gods? I'll clean up the verbiage, for sure, but anything to remove myself from their view would be appreciated.

    Not sure if this carries over, but whenever the site is running slow I say three Hail Sweeneys and it seems to correct the problem.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    You can change your logic of raising small so you can get value from worse Aces. This does not seem like a sound plan at all.

    Second, you can't raise to $7 after two limpers. You have to make charge them a price for staying and stealing the $4 plus blinds is printing money.

    Betting $75 into a $241 pot is not denying the right price for a flush draw.
    $241 +$75 = $316
    $316 / $75 = 4,21 - 1
    For a flush draw you need 4.1 - 1. Not to mention the $ he will win on the river.


  • derdonkerderdonker Red Chipper Posts: 123 ✭✭
    On hh posts, i prefer a quick summary of: stakes, blinds, #players, and action [in short-hand], followed by anything to consider, per street. as written, readers have to digest the whole post before understanding the hh. it's beneficial if you include the size of the pot on each street.

    Preflop, why to bet. with 4 others in pot [sb, bb, v1, v2] and holding A5o, i suggest a fold. if continuing, consider raising large enough to get 1-4 folds. your opinion was $12+, but you bet $7 to let better hands (A5+, low pp, many hands), continue that you'll try to bluff later on in position. I think it's better to improve your equity by folding-out opponents, and bluffs will probably be easier [repping a better hand], as well.

    Flop, you got an incredible flop for your hand and you're in position, but it's dynamic, with sd and fd possibilities. It seems unstated preflop pot size is around $21. the blinds folded pf, and the two V add $20 so pot is $41, action to you is $10. you want worse hands to continue, and draws are worse hands. i suggest thinking about what you want to call and fold, and size appropriately. if you get raised, on the flop, you probably shove here. i suggest raising even larger than $45 more, but that's okay. realize, any 4, 6, 7, 8, or heart on the turn is bad for you. you might want to shove right here, and if you get calls you get the whole amount when draws do not come in.

    Turn, this is one of those bad cards, a 6. you should have about a pot sized behind, and if the short stack is still in the hand, he's coming along anyway. you're thinking about what the large stack will do. i suggest just shoving here.

    River, this completes both sd and fd hands. i think if the action prior to this street was different, hands like 95o would probably not still be in the hand. i'm not sure i'd call this a cooler.

    Regards!

    Red - feel free to disagree. lol

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