Your thoughts on this hand

accessdeniedx2accessdeniedx2 Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
I play a home game live 1/2. We have a relatively new guy. (Villain) He plays alot of fit or fold poker, but recently has started showing up with bluffs, but I've noticed bet sizing tells. Large bets are bluffs. Value bets are smaller.

10 player table. Theres is a TON of limps all the time and ranges are generally wide for about 50% of players. I'm not sure how important all this information is, but I'm adding it.

Because it limps alot, I tend to limp in with small pp, suited connectors, and Ax suited. If I limp and face a raise, I base my continuance on SPRs and number of players in the hand (pot odds).

Effective stack is 360$.

Hero is in MP with :5s :5c
Villain is in BB

There is an open limp ahead of me. I limp for 2$. Hijack and button limp and the SB completes.

Villain in BB raises to 16$, which is standard, but on the low side. 16$ to 22$.

The open limper calls. I call based on the fact that villain over values hands. All other players fold. (I'm in position to the other 2 players).

Flop is :Qh :Jc :6s

Action checks to me and I represent the Q and bet 25$.

BB calls. EP folds.

Turn is :5d
Villain checks. I make it 40$ now because I dont put him on a Queen and want to keep his range wide. Villain calls 40$.

River is :4h
Now Villain leads 40...??
I figured hes trying to pot control for showdown value, so I tank raise to 140$. Villain thinks for a short while before moving all in for the remainder of 150ish.

Instantly, alarms are going off because that river couldn't have helped him and in low stakes check/call, check/call, lead is usually a big hand and now he's 3bet me all in. I ended up calling it off.

I dont mind my play up until the river. Preflop, I dont mind my MP flat call and even limping in. I usually over limp as long as the table limps about 75% of times so that I'm not stuck facing raises very often.

Hes completely polarized here. I guess he has bluffs, but based on live reads and specific player tendencies, hes much more value heavy.

Comments

  • CoilerinoCoilerino Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Flop: Why do you think your limp call range represents a queen when you just said your limping range is pockets, suited connectors and Ax suited? It makes more sense for you to just raise vs the EP limp and now you can just bet in position with AQ KQ QJ QT and AJ in your range.

    Turn: You hit your set. This should be a clear value bet. I think you can make it more like $50-$65 depending on how sticky you think Villain is here.

    River: You said Villain is very fit or fold so what do you think he's calling down with? If you think he's only raising QQ and JJ preflop and just slowplaying them here you can fold, but you beat so many Qx Jx, missed straights, etc. You already said you wanted to keep him in the pot with your turn bet, why are you upset now that he's giving you action on the river? If you're afraid he's going to be nutted on the river, you can just call his lead. Why are you going to raise without having a plan for when he jams?

    What did Villain end up showing?
  • accessdeniedx2accessdeniedx2 Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Yes, I didnt think about my plan if he shoved. And I do have a wider limp range... unsuited Broadway cards etc.

    My table image is tight. He had JJ, but he said he thought that I could've had QQ there and I dont know why, I'd have 3bet QQ. Hes a new player and almost 75% of my reraises are for value. I'm working on thinking all the way throughout my hands. In this game though, I'm rarely put in tough spots as I'm normally the aggressor.
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    I want to just call this a cooler but if you're sure that villain is only raising a premium from the bb and he is never showing up here with QJ, it's a tough spot. I would have to be 100% confident in my read and even then, I would adjust by not raising his river bet. On that run out, you can't really fold your set imo, the only decision is if you're willing to play for stacks. If the answer is no, then don't go for thin value at the end.
  • accessdeniedx2accessdeniedx2 Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Thank you. I wanted to call it a cooler also, but afraid if I do, then I'm saying to myself that I didnt make a mistake in this hand and if I did... then I'm not going to learn from it. I'm too much of a novice for that lol.

    I agree with you though. I should've just called because I didnt take into effect "what if he pushes". I just dont get pushed on by these guys ever without them having nuttish type hands. Given what I just said, I agree with your assessment of making that fold in the end or just flatting the 40
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,013 -
    Thank you. I wanted to call it a cooler also, but afraid if I do, then I'm saying to myself that I didnt make a mistake in this hand and if I did... then I'm not going to learn from it. I'm too much of a novice for that lol.

    I agree with you though. I should've just called because I didnt take into effect "what if he pushes". I just dont get pushed on by these guys ever without them having nuttish type hands. Given what I just said, I agree with your assessment of making that fold in the end or just flatting the 40

    If you just flat with a well-hidden set you're losing a ton of value IMO. If your read is good enough you can raise-fold, but I far prefer that to just calling.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • accessdeniedx2accessdeniedx2 Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Maybe I could've folded to the reraise Kat.... I guess what I was wondering..... Was I just so enamored by turning a set that I was unable to think through the hand well enough to fold to that all in push? The board certainly didnt change much for his open raising range that I had him on, so for him to c/c, c/c, and then lead/shove... could anyone make that fold? And should I have been able to see I was dominated? Or is it really just a cooler?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,013 -
    I think set over set is nearly always a cooler. The main point I was making was that just because you hadn't considered what would happen if you raised the end and got reraised, it doesn't mean that you shouldn't have raised in the first place. As to whether you can fold to the push, if this opponent never plays top 2 like that I guess you can, but it's likely not easy in real time.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • accessdeniedx2accessdeniedx2 Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Thank you for your insight. It certainly got me thinking about other situations. Appreciate all your help!

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