1/3: In Position with 33 as the Preflop Raiser; Everyone Checks to Me on Flop

EnnodEnnod Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
1/3 Live 10-Handed (No Rake, Time Charge)

UTG+1 limps. He has around $200.

UTG+2 limps. She has around $300.

I’m in UTG+3 with 3s 3c.

I raise to $25 because the table has been tight. The players have been folding to my raises. I have around $400.

However, I think calling is better because of the BB. I haven’t raised his limps but when he limps, he has called everyone’s raises so he will probably call my raises too.

This is another situation where I need to slow down and assess the situation before making a play.

Everyone folds to the BB, who calls. He has around $200.

The limpers also call. Based on their reactions to the BB call, I think they would’ve folded if the BB didn’t call. They folded earlier to my raises.

Therefore, I think the limpers have weak hands. The BB is probably weak too since he is loose preflop.

Flop ($101): As 9s 4s

BB has been semi-aggressive postflop. I think he could bet with a strong flush draw or strong Ace here.

The other players in the hand are passive postflop.

They all check to me.

Your play?

Comments

  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 773 ✭✭✭
    Your raise is fine. I would consider UTG+3 MP so why not. You said your getting folds so there is good chance your buying the BU and getting it HU.

    Bad, unexpected event... too many callers...it happens

    you have to play fairly honest now. Betting good made hands and good draws

    You have neither. Check planning to fold and move on to the next hand. Let's not make things worse by betting into the field with air and hoping it works out

    And ask yourself "has the table dynamic changed??' and adjust according to your answer
  • JayLeeJayLee Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    I would never open with my low pairs in MP. Anyhow, this easy check. There is no equity for you to continue against someone having high spade or ace.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 773 ✭✭✭
    edited April 25
    JayLee wrote: »
    I would never open with my low pairs in MP. Anyhow, this easy check. There is no equity for you to continue against someone having high spade or ace.

    Try it, You might like it

    Sometimes everyone folds and you pick up blinds

    Sometimes only the blinds call and your IP with Initiative. Lots of good cbet bluff/protection boards

    Sometimes every Tom, Dick and Harry call for a multiway jamboree. Oh well you were going to limp call this anyways

    Sometimes with a big isolator behind you get to set your setmine price at 3x,4x instead of his/her 7x-8x iso

    Sometimes only one caller behind, So your HU with lots of bluff moves to add EV

    Sometimes you hit as the PFR.... the fun possibilities are endless

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭✭
    You cannot raise or call small pocket pairs if your only plan is to hit a set or give up. Now is a point to make a decision. You gotta turn your hand into AK or AQ, or decide to give up now. If you triple barrel, a weak Ax should have to give up. If they have FD's your gonna have to wait for a safe run out to bluff the river. If you wanna win this pot, your gonna have to likely triple barrel it. I leave it up to you to do the math of: what sizing, how often do I have to bet, and what hands can call me down. I used to think "I have range advantage here, I can have AK here I should just bet and take it down!"...but MW pots like this I dunno sometimes I assume no one can call me down with A10o and then I just punt my entire stack when they do....I think the conservative approach of "I'll play more honestly in MW pots" here is probably best. Just do the maths of how often you have to bet to take it down to break even if you cards have 0% equity, range them, and then realize if you DO bet, it can't be to give up. You gotta be ready to barrel it. AND, then ask yourself...would you unload the clip completely with AK here? AQ? What hands go for 3 streets of value here? If the flush completes do you always give up?
  • EnnodEnnod Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    edited April 28
    1/3 Live 10-Handed (No Rake, Time Charge)

    UTG+1 limps. He has around $200.

    UTG+2 limps. She has around $300.

    I’m in UTG+3 with 3s 3c.

    I raise to $25 because the table has been tight. The players have been folding to my raises. I have around $400.

    However, I think calling is better because of the BB. I haven’t raised his limps but when he limps, he has called everyone’s raises so he will probably call my raises too.

    This is another situation where I need to slow down and assess the situation before making a play.

    Everyone folds to the BB, who calls. He has around $200.

    The limpers also call. Based on their reactions to the BB call, I think they would’ve folded if the BB didn’t call. They folded earlier to my raises.

    Therefore, I think the limpers have weak hands. The BB is probably weak too since he is loose preflop.

    Flop ($101): As 9s 4s

    BB has been semi-aggressive postflop. I think he could bet with a strong flush draw or strong Ace here.

    The other players in the hand are passive postflop.

    They all check to me.

    I bet $50. Everyone folds.


    Thanks for the replies. It looks like my play is too spewy. I went strongly with live reads on this one. The players all checked pretty quickly and it looked like they were not interested in the pot.

    Still, with a half pot bet, I need everyone to fold 33% of the time to break even. Let’s estimate that UTG+1 and UTG+2 are 70% to fold and BB is 50% to fold.

    That’s only 24.5% (70% * 70% * 50%), which is lower than 33%.

    To get around 33%, we need BB to also be at 70% to fold. 70% * 70% * 70% is 34.3%.

    70% for each player seems super generous so checking seems best.

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