Bluff river on missed draw vs. Fish?

Ray KRay K Red Chipper Posts: 117 ✭✭
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software


NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
CO ($200.37) [VPIP: 61.4% | PFR: 21.7% | AGG: 38.8% | 3-Bet: 8.3% | Hands: 83]
BTN ($29.68) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 33.3% | Hands: 6]
SB ($55.62) [VPIP: 35% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 38.5% | 3-Bet: 10.3% | Hands: 83]
HERO ($49.89) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 37% | 3-Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 18455]
UTG ($53.49) [VPIP: 17.8% | PFR: 12.3% | AGG: 8.7% | 3-Bet: 5.7% | Hands: 74]
HJ ($52.84) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 16.4% | AGG: 15% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 56]


Dealt to Hero: T:diamond: J:spade:
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $1.50, HERO Calls $1
Hero SPR on Flop: [16.13 effective]


Flop ($3.00): 7:club: 8:club: 4:heart:
SB Bets $2 (Rem. Stack: 52.12), HERO Calls $2 (Rem. Stack: 46.39)

Turn ($7.00): 7:club: 8:club: 4:heart: 6:heart:
SB Checks, HERO Bets $5 (Rem. Stack: 41.39), SB Calls $5 (Rem. Stack: 47.12)

River ($17.00): 7:club: 8:club: 4:heart: 6:heart: 4:diamond:
SB Checks, HERO Bets $11 (Rem. Stack: 30.39)

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    Why do you say Villain is a fish ? (And how do you define a fish?)
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    edited April 28
    Hm, interesting hand.

    I could totally be wrong about this, but preflop I feel like 3bet or fold could be better than flatting. If you think your opponent's raise is weak, 3betting with the intention of barreling to get them off any stuff postflop seems like it'd be a profitable strategy. If you think their raise is strong, I'd probably prefer to get out of the way with JTo. I don't hate calling IP though blind-vs-blind.

    On the flop I don't mind calling as a float, but I could also see raising it up right there as an alternative if you think they're barreling the turn a lot of the time, and if you think they're the bet-fold type.

    Turn bet looks good. Board is scary and there's a lot of air that you could get folds from, assuming Villain cbets a lot and plays his strength aggressively by betting the turn. I'd prefer a size closer to half pot though, because I believe that will get the job done against the stuff you're targeting.

    I think the river bet was good. If we assume that Villain is cbetting 100%, check-calling the turn with overpairs, top pairs, and good (combo)draws, and calling the river with an eight or better, you'll be getting folds about 67.5% of the time. Of course, if we tweak the assumptions things will change, but it does look to me like you have a good opportunity to fire again on the river here.
  • Ray KRay K Red Chipper Posts: 117 ✭✭
    thanks for the advice
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    Agree with Red... Not sure how fishy V's stats look. Hand played well IMO. Did the bluff work or did he call with some bottom pair? (there's the fish move LOL)

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