Polarized River Decision Live 2/5 NL

Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
$900 Effective Stacks.
I'd been playing pretty tight. Not too familiar with Villain other than he had been running really good and had me covered.

I open :Ad :Kd UTG to $25
MP calls and the BB completes.

FLOP ($75)
:8d :4s :2s
BB Checks and I bet $30
MP quickly raises to $90.
BB folds and I call with my overs and backdoor flush draw.

Turn ($255)
:Kc
I check.
Villain bets $175.
I call.

River ($705)
:Qh

I check and Villain shoves for $600 Effective.

Hero?
$600 to win $1305.

Comments

  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    I probably fold the flop. You don't need to defend. Both you and the BB are responsible for defending together, and if you're not strong enough to defend you can fold and you're not being exploited. The fact that he took this line into to players makes me lean towards a fold on the river.
  • derdonkerderdonker San Jose, CA USARed Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    edited April 26
    pf - AKs is a premium hand, best non-paired combo. you might want to size larger (30-35) to iso and building the pot early isn't the worst thing. however, 25 gets all behind but one behind to fold, so perhaps you sized correctly for your pool.

    flop - decent flop for your cards. you're in the middle of the action, with top-two overcards and a bdnfd. it's checked to you, and i think you should have checked to realize another street cheaply. if you were in-position and it was checked to you, i'd open around 2/3-pot sized. calling the 3x raise from the in-position player seems good.

    turn - Ko is good for your cards. you're now hu. i would either donk lead or check-raise here, but you check/called with no denial of equity possible. there's still a lot behind, so i would probably call most bets, but probably fold to huge/shove bets. TPTK is great, and you'd like to realize your equity, without risking your whole stack yet, if called.

    river - Qo doesn't seem to help V, and especially if you put a lot of pressure on with the donk/check-raise on the turn. as played, you don't know where you're at, and the V gets a good chance to both bluff and value bet you. however, as played with an spr of 600/1300, i think you should call with TPTK.

    i think your line made the river decision more difficult than it had to be.
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    derdonker wrote: »
    pf -

    flop - decent flop for your cards. you're in the middle of the action, with top-two overcards and a bdnfd. it's checked to you, and i think you should have checked to realize another street cheaply. if you were in-position and it was checked to you, i'd open around 2/3-pot sized. calling the 3x raise from the in-position player seems good.

    i think your line made the river decision more difficult than it had to be.

    I tanked on the turn and contemplated the Check Raise....
    My thought was I am only charging the bluffs because what else can call that I am ahead of?

    Are any of the overpairs calling? TT-JJ?
    Sets are gonna call as well. I thought with the King out...and the Large bet...what is he trying to get value from?

    I opted for the line of calling letting him stay in with a wider range to bluff the river....if he isn't bluffing at this point, the check raise isn't gonna change much.



  • derdonkerderdonker San Jose, CA USARed Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    edited April 26
    turn - both b and x/r charge spade fd and fold pairs, except for KX, which you're ahead of. x/r allows you to capture turn bets. I don't see V having AA or two pairs on this board (842K). sets, KX, and spade fd's continue, so you want to charge that, and if sets come over the top you can let it go.
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    I don’t think the flop bet is a good idea - you should consider why or why not.

    As played you obliged a player, who is likely to have a big range advantage on the flop, to build the pot.

    Although the turn appears to have helped you it is also possible it helped him via KQss, KJss, etc

    On the river the best you can hope for is that he monkey-shoved 8xss, a FD + gutshot, or some spazzy spade trash.

    I recommend time spent thinking what you were trying to counter or accomplish by betting the flop and how subsequent action compounded cloudy judgment.

    F
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    Fernando O wrote: »
    I don’t think the flop bet is a good idea - you should consider why or why not.

    As played you obliged a player, who is likely to have a big range advantage on the flop, to build the pot.

    Although the turn appears to have helped you it is also possible it helped him via KQss, KJss, etc

    On the river the best you can hope for is that he monkey-shoved 8xss, a FD + gutshot, or some spazzy spade trash.

    I recommend time spent thinking what you were trying to counter or accomplish by betting the flop and how subsequent action compounded cloudy judgment.

    F

    Two overs with a backdoor flush draw? Seems like a bet every time. I'm betting alot of Turn cards as well.
    I also have a narrow range UTG and will be betting most of my range. Without the BDFD..I'm probably check, giving up.

    What betting range would you have? Just overpairs and spades/sets?
  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 3
    Hey @Michael E i like the defend as long as we think this guy is volatile and can show up with bluffs. If this is all true i would consider to XR the turn all in as u should with some of ure draws/ made hands. Given the call by the river it simply comes down to the price ure given, how often u have to be correct? And can you find enough hands that you beat given the price that is being laid to you that show up by the river with this action
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  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 3
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Hey @Michael E i like the defend as long as we think this guy is volatile and can show up with bluffs. If this is all true i would consider to XR the turn all in as u should with some of ure draws/ made hands. Given the call by the river it simply comes down to the price ure given, how often u have to be correct? And can you find enough hands that you beat given the price that is being laid to you that show up by the river with this action

    Aside from the fact that this defend is terrible, XRing the turn here with TPTK and no major reads that villain is an absolute maniac is a very very efficient way to lose all your money. What on earth kind of range are you giving villain here that this bet gets called by worse?

    I said if villain is volatile and at minimum could have draws , if this is true u have to defend a certain range and AKdd is making the cut. If villain is more on the value side based on his playstyle then this would be a fold.
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  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Michael E wrote: »
    Fernando O wrote: »
    I don’t think the flop bet is a good idea - you should consider why or why not.

    As played you obliged a player, who is likely to have a big range advantage on the flop, to build the pot.

    Although the turn appears to have helped you it is also possible it helped him via KQss, KJss, etc

    On the river the best you can hope for is that he monkey-shoved 8xss, a FD + gutshot, or some spazzy spade trash.

    I recommend time spent thinking what you were trying to counter or accomplish by betting the flop and how subsequent action compounded cloudy judgment.

    F

    Two overs with a backdoor flush draw? Seems like a bet every time. I'm betting alot of Turn cards as well.

    Ummmm....no, not even close to a bet every time, and especially not for the sizing you've chosen.

    What are you betting? 20% of your range? Overpairs and that's it lol
  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Hey @Michael E i like the defend as long as we think this guy is volatile and can show up with bluffs. If this is all true i would consider to XR the turn all in as u should with some of ure draws/ made hands. Given the call by the river it simply comes down to the price ure given, how often u have to be correct? And can you find enough hands that you beat given the price that is being laid to you that show up by the river with this action

    Aside from the fact that this defend is terrible, XRing the turn here with TPTK and no major reads that villain is an absolute maniac is a very very efficient way to lose all your money. What on earth kind of range are you giving villain here that this bet gets called by worse?

    I said if villain is volatile and at minimum could have draws , if this is true u have to defend a certain range and AKdd is making the cut. If villain is more on the value side based on his playstyle then this would be a fold.

    AKdd does not make the cut for the flop raise defend, unless you are assuming such a wide cbetting range that you can barely make MDF against a balanced raising range, and at that point you are losing EV no matter what you do, and you need to reevaluate your flop cbet strategy. OP here needs more detail than just "If villain is volatile, you can defend." If you look at just HOW volatile the villain has to be to make this defend profitable (remember that even his spade draws have like 55% equity against you, and he raised a board that crushes BB range), you will realize that you're giving him a maniacally wide raising range. This is why I asked you what your range is for the villain that makes you think that a defend here is OK.

    But that was not even my major disagreement. How is XRing TPTK on turn here a winning play? Do you think V is going to flop-raise and then bet-call worse hands? Again, the guy has to be a super maniac to think you are getting value from worse there.

    In a board texture where hand choices are scarced, u will eventually need to reach into ure overcards and of course u want the backdoors ones

    To ure second point, assuming villain is volatile he could have a raising range consisting if draws some 8x maybe even some 99-TT, once the K comes this helps our range and doesn’t touch him (besides Kx of spades) this is a spot we should now go ahead put him in via XR giving stacks are almost threatened. This will help our bluffs and value hands.
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  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    edited May 3
    [/quote]

    I'm not going to say my complete flop strategy because a lot of poker coaches charge for it, but suffice to say, probably most hands that you are trying to rep with this cbet, I don't need to balance with bluff cbets.[/quote]

    If it isn't AK with a BD flush draw...one can assume your CBETS are ONLY overpairs...99+....and maybe 99 is too weak for you to bet.

    Why are you posting on forums for free when coaches pay you for your insightful analysis of "that's terrible"

    Anyways, by sizing smaller, I can bet more of my hands...which is the point. Not to mention, you're not winning at 2/5 with one C-bet on the flop. Not sure what games you are playing in, but the plan is to continue on the Turn with many cards that come.

    But..thanks for the tips on what hands I should be continuing with.
    I'm still C-betting this hand every time however....and maybe some Check Raises. I'm never ck folding here.

    The only hand I do not have good equity against are sets on this flop. I'm ahead of any Ax spade hands.

    It's $60 to go with $195 in the pot...on a hand where I have quite a bit of equity vs over-pairs, and flush draws....and in big trouble vs. the times villain has a set.

    As for the Turn Check Raise....well, we would be charging the big hands with spades...A8s...Axs....etcs. I definitely considered it.....

    Also, like Frausto says...it helps balance my bluffs which I would with hands like AXs on that turn..






  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Hey @Michael E i like the defend as long as we think this guy is volatile and can show up with bluffs. If this is all true i would consider to XR the turn all in as u should with some of ure draws/ made hands. Given the call by the river it simply comes down to the price ure given, how often u have to be correct? And can you find enough hands that you beat given the price that is being laid to you that show up by the river with this action

    Aside from the fact that this defend is terrible, XRing the turn here with TPTK and no major reads that villain is an absolute maniac is a very very efficient way to lose all your money. What on earth kind of range are you giving villain here that this bet gets called by worse?

    I said if villain is volatile and at minimum could have draws , if this is true u have to defend a certain range and AKdd is making the cut. If villain is more on the value side based on his playstyle then this would be a fold.

    AKdd does not make the cut for the flop raise defend, unless you are assuming such a wide cbetting range that you can barely make MDF against a balanced raising range, and at that point you are losing EV no matter what you do, and you need to reevaluate your flop cbet strategy. OP here needs more detail than just "If villain is volatile, you can defend." If you look at just HOW volatile the villain has to be to make this defend profitable (remember that even his spade draws have like 55% equity against you, and he raised a board that crushes BB range), you will realize that you're giving him a maniacally wide raising range. This is why I asked you what your range is for the villain that makes you think that a defend here is OK.

    But that was not even my major disagreement. How is XRing TPTK on turn here a winning play? Do you think V is going to flop-raise and then bet-call worse hands? Again, the guy has to be a super maniac to think you are getting value from worse there.

    In a board texture where hand choices are scarced, u will eventually need to reach into ure overcards and of course u want the backdoors ones

    To ure second point, assuming villain is volatile he could have a raising range consisting if draws some 8x maybe even some 99-TT, once the K comes this helps our range and doesn’t touch him (besides Kx of spades) this is a spot we should now go ahead put him in via XR giving stacks are almost threatened. This will help our bluffs and value hands.

    For the first point, when you say "reach into your overcards", you mean for the cbet, or for the defend? It's simply not true that you have to defend a raise here with two overcards with back doors.

    For the second point, if you think V is cbetting the turn with spades, sets, 99-TT and 8x, then you basically are saying he's a maniac. I mean, really, Fausto - how many players do you think are turning 99-TT and 8x into a bluff on the turn? And why would you want to raise those hands? They have almost no equity and you're only going to get them to fold by raising. Villain will never call this turn raise with 8x, he will never call with 99-TT, and he should not be calling with spade draws. You will only get called by worse.

    Im talking with the cbet then defend facing a raise

    I see those ranges when the player is volatile, the reason i will xr on turn is because i will have draws myself also when taking this action

    Also as a note it seems like u might be assuming how they will react giving u may not do it ureself, but if they play like that, it is what it is
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  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    I like how u assume im just loosing lol good luck @Phil Ebbs
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  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    Your comments seemed like that but its fine perhaps im reading it incorrectly

    The player doesnt have nut atdvantage on this board but it could run in his favor, and not all of our hands function to defend at its fullest, some simply drop off as the turn and river comes

    Yes this is what ive been saying, as long as villain is volatile then we need to defend, if their not and are largely unknown then folding is obviously fine as the pool doesnt really go crazy, we cant assume they are
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  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Your comments seemed like that but its fine perhaps im reading it incorrectly

    The player doesnt have nut atdvantage on this board but it could run in his favor, and not all of our hands function to defend at its fullest, some simply drop off as the turn and river comes

    Yes this is what ive been saying, as long as villain is volatile then we need to defend, if their not and are largely unknown then folding is obviously fine as the pool doesnt really go crazy, we cant assume they are

    -No problem, seems like a lot of people read my comments very differently than I intended to write them =)
    -I'm not sure how your second sentence is supposed to be a defense for defending this raise. This hand does not have the equity OOP to defend a raise, even assuming a very loose raising range by V, and we lack nut advantage. Seems like an open and shut case. How does "it could run in his favor" count as a response to that? By that logic, we could defend any hand, since your comment can be made about any two cards.
    -OK, so just to clarify, you have been saying this whole time that as long as villain falls into a minute group of people (I would estimate this group of "volatile" players is like 2-3% of the population, and I actually think that is very generous), then the action is fine as played? If that's what you were communicating, then that's obviously true, but it's trivially true. I might as well say that open-shoving the flop is a fine play against a "volatile" player, as long as I later define "volatile" to mean "the 0.5% of the population who will call the flop shove with ATC." but would anyone on the forum think that that is useful or good advice? Probably not.

    If equity is ure only desfense then ure missing the bigger picture, cause by that argument u will almost not defend anything if raised on a K72r board as an example

    So what im saying theres a certain frequency ure gonna have to defend and like i said, AKdd should make the list, if u dont agree then thats fine, i dont wanna repeat the same thing nor am i gonna give a whole maths seminar on the forum :)

    Also i think u understimate how many ppl could get agg given dynamics, maybe they don’t see as volatile and wont take this line vs u idk

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  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,002 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,683 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 3
    Michael E wrote: »
    BB Checks and I bet $30
    MP quickly raises to $90.
    BB folds and I call with my overs and backdoor flush draw.

    Turn ($255)
    :Kc
    I check.
    Villain bets $175.
    I call.

    This doesn't really add up, does it? How can you call this raise and (as far as I can tell) justify it in an outs/odds based way, and then play so passively when you hit? I mean, either your outs are da bomb or you shouldn't be calling in the first place. The only exception being what Fausto said about overly aggressive players (which we have no evidence of whatsoever in this hand history, but still could be present in the general pool) in which case your play is fine (but then the river would have been a snap call, so we know that option is out as well.)

    You're looking at about 3:1 for a draw that requires 6:1, or at least significant implied odds in addition to immediate odds, but then when the implied odds arrive which are required to show a profit here, you flinch. So either be willing to check/shove the turn, or fold to the flop raise.

    (I'm not saying check raise the turn, it's just a way to think about how the hand plays out. If you can't check raise and you don't want to call down, then the only other option is that he showed aggression over 3 streets which finally convinced you, but this should be part of the consideration when you called on the flop.)
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,683 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Touche, lol. Proved me wrong there with a very assertive comment. Point taken =)

    To be fair, you lobbed him a softball :)

  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    Interesting
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  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Hey @Michael E i like the defend as long as we think this guy is volatile and can show up with bluffs. If this is all true i would consider to XR the turn all in as u should with some of ure draws/ made hands. Given the call by the river it simply comes down to the price ure given, how often u have to be correct? And can you find enough hands that you beat given the price that is being laid to you that show up by the river with this action

    Aside from the fact that this defend is terrible, XRing the turn here with TPTK and no major reads that villain is an absolute maniac is a very very efficient way to lose all your money. What on earth kind of range are you giving villain here that this bet gets called by worse?

    I said if villain is volatile and at minimum could have draws , if this is true u have to defend a certain range and AKdd is making the cut. If villain is more on the value side based on his playstyle then this would be a fold.

    AKdd does not make the cut for the flop raise defend, unless you are assuming such a wide cbetting range that you can barely make MDF against a balanced raising range, and at that point you are losing EV no matter what you do, and you need to reevaluate your flop cbet strategy. OP here needs more detail than just "If villain is volatile, you can defend." If you look at just HOW volatile the villain has to be to make this defend profitable (remember that even his spade draws have like 55% equity against you, and he raised a board that crushes BB range), you will realize that you're giving him a maniacally wide raising range. This is why I asked you what your range is for the villain that makes you think that a defend here is OK.

    But that was not even my major disagreement. How is XRing TPTK on turn here a winning play? Do you think V is going to flop-raise and then bet-call worse hands? Again, the guy has to be a super maniac to think you are getting value from worse there.

    In a board texture where hand choices are scarced, u will eventually need to reach into ure overcards and of course u want the backdoors ones

    To ure second point, assuming villain is volatile he could have a raising range consisting if draws some 8x maybe even some 99-TT, once the K comes this helps our range and doesn’t touch him (besides Kx of spades) this is a spot we should now go ahead put him in via XR giving stacks are almost threatened. This will help our bluffs and value hands.

    For the first point, when you say "reach into your overcards", you mean for the cbet, or for the defend? It's simply not true that you have to defend a raise here with two overcards with back doors.

    For the second point, if you think V is cbetting the turn with spades, sets, 99-TT and 8x, then you basically are saying he's a maniac. I mean, really, Fausto - how many players do you think are turning 99-TT and 8x into a bluff on the turn? And why would you want to raise those hands? They have almost no equity and you're only going to get them to fold by raising. Villain will never call this turn raise with 8x, he will never call with 99-TT, and he should not be calling with spade draws. You will only get called by worse.

    You never had Kx here, right? I mean never...because A. You aren't Cbetting it...B. You aren't defending the Check raise.

    If you are bluffing as the raiser...and you know you are never calling the raise with Kx or AK....the King becomes the ultimate bluff card. You have to fold everything to the large Cbet, right? TT-QQ go away and any draws get severely charged...UTG raiser has little
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Michael E wrote: »
    BB Checks and I bet $30
    MP quickly raises to $90.
    BB folds and I call with my overs and backdoor flush draw.

    Turn ($255)
    :Kc
    I check.
    Villain bets $175.
    I call.

    This doesn't really add up, does it? How can you call this raise and (as far as I can tell) justify it in an outs/odds based way, and then play so passively when you hit?

    It's one thing to call a 3bet on a flop. In the games I play..raising with a draw or even top pair here is standard by alot of players.

    But, when he BOMBS the turn by the game standards....it does make me flinch. And it polarizes his hands to sets and Flush/Pair draws.

    Additionally, calling $60 in a $195 pot when you have 30% equity...this seems LOL that some are calling it a fold.

    Here is a question...If I have to fold AK with the backdoor diamonds...what can I call?
    TT? JJ? QQ?

    Given the action, what do I do with QQ-TT on the turn since it essentially becomes the same hand?
    I guess fold everything except Spades and AA with the ace of spades?





  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,683 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Michael E wrote: »
    Additionally, calling $60 in a $195 pot when you have 30% equity...this seems LOL that some are calling it a fold.

    I'm pretty sure we're saying there's more to it than equity, it's how the hand plays out.

  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 835 ✭✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Interesting

    Yeah, I have found that solvers can very frequently show quite interesting results in these spots where the historical advice has not been theoretically provable. I mean, to be honest, the real weakness of this thought process of "what do I do with AdKd here?" is that it's not really looking at our range. If we are cbetting AdKd and other overcards with BD (say, BDFD connected overcards, JTs-AKs), then we realize that we are way over-c-betting and opponents can just wait for strong hands. Of course, we can over c-bet our range here as an exploit if we think opponents are nitty and will be over-folding, but then the logical conclusion is that we should actually be over-folding to a raise.

    i was being sarcastic sorry lol :D
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