Call river lead-shove with top pair?

adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
edited April 2019 in Online Poker Hands
NL50 full ring
Hero AsQh BB
Villain in SB; I have him tagged as a calling station without any more nuanced reads

Villain opens to $1.50, I 3bet to $4.50, he calls

Villain checks, I bet $6, he calls

Villain checks, I bet $10.50, he calls

Villain shoves for $32.05

My thinking
I thought that as a station-y player he could be floating the flop and giving up on turns, especially blind-vs-blind. The turn bet only needs to work maybe 25% of the time with my overs.

I was excited to hit my ace on the river, but when he leads, I figure that there really isn't that much he's doing it with for value that I beat, really only AJ and A9. I also don't see him as capable of bluffing too much. Especially when I display this much aggression by 3betting and barreling.
So I decided to fold.


  • AHallai_3AHallai_3 Sault Ste Marie, MIRed Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    This feels set-ish? I’m not sure why but it does. Seems like a fairly decent board to slow play and then shove the river hoping you hit that ace bc you have a lot of them in your range. I plugged in a range for villain and it just doesn’t look good at all for a call. Even with JJ and AJ in there you’re only looking at about 28% while needing to be good about 31%.
  • GiofromrioGiofromrio Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    Honestly i dont think there is any value hand you beat. I dont think he plays A9,AJ that way tbh. Question is is he bluffing more than 31%. With the A being a way better hand for your range than for his and you blocking the missed heart draw slightly that should be a straight forward fold vs a, non aggressive player.Calling stations rarely take the initiative with bluffs from my experience.
    In fact i dont like your whole line from an exploitative point of view. You know he is a calling station and still you try to bluff him with a hand that has decent showdown value. Calling stations are also often referred to as loose PASSIVE. Thats why you can easily check back and expect him to check again on the turn if he didnt connect with the board. If he bets you can call or fold depending on his sizing.
  • GiofromrioGiofromrio Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    Which part of villains range are you targeting buddy?
  • Rich57Rich57 Red Chipper Posts: 112 ✭✭
    Let's walk in the villain's shoes. you went 3-bet - three-quarters pot (flop) -half-pot (turn). If I am the villain, no matter what I hold I think a shove is very likely to induce a fold. If I have a set, I might (50/50) wait to see if you three barrel for slim value or think you are good,
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    Your 1/2 pot turn bet needs 33 % folds to break even
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    but of course...just wanted to let the OP know that 25% was erroneous. River play aside

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