How to play a set on a monochrome board versus aggression

adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
edited April 2019 in Online Poker Hands
NL50 online full ring,
Hero UTG with 9s9d
Opponents are unknowns

Hero opens to $2, BTN and blinds flat

SB leads $8, I call, others fold

SB bets $24, has $32.56 behind and I cover. Hero?

My thoughts
I feel a little confused about how to play this.

On the flop, Villain's play seems super strong, betting pot into three opponents first to act. I feel like I'm beat. I guess it could be 44, K9s or K4s, but flushes seem more likely. Idk though, perhaps not. Raising for value seems too thin though, and my opponent seems too strong to raise as a bluff.

But flatting is also sorta rough. Yes, I do have a lot of outs and I have the implied odds if I hit my boat, but I'm pretty likely going to be facing more big barrels from my opponent in this spot, so I'm going to have to pay big time to see it.

On the turn, he seems even more strong, barreling full pot twice. I really don't think I could be raising for value here. Raising as a bluff could be nice if I could get him to fold a small flush, but I can't really tell if opponents are capable of folding that.

And the math doesn't seem to work out for flatting. If we say I stack him 100% of the time when I hit an out, then I'm risking $24 to win $22.67 + $24 + $32.56 = $79.23, so I need to hit an out 24 / 24 + 79.23 = 23% of the time. But with my 10 outs, I'm only going to be hitting about 20% of the time. But if I'm folding the turn, why am I calling the flop? But how can I fold a set on the flop?
I kinda defaulted to aggression and shoved the turn. Got called by 87hh after about 5 seconds of thought by my opponent, and lost after I missed on the river.

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