Feedback on trips board with Over pair

elsecretelsecret Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
Hey guys wanted some feedback on a hand I think I played ok? But would like some feedback on the thought process I had. I'm just going to link the card player. 10 NL Global Poker

Villain was basically pushing/ shoving every now and then probably when he had ace-x or good pocket pairs. My thought process was yeah he could definitely have a 7 here but he could also be overvaluing pocket pairs as well or over cards. If I'm folding queens I feel like it's bad since I'm pretty much at the top parts of my range.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,130 -
    Where be the hand?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • elsecretelsecret Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
  • AlpineCurtAlpineCurt Red Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    IMHO this is a great hand which which to plug some ranges into Flopzilla.

    Some questions to ask yourself:
    -How closely have you been watching this player? How wide have they been calling PF? Have you seen them make any similar actions on the flop before?
    Failing that:
    -How does the player pool tend to behave? What have you seen players shove with on the flop? Overpairs? FDs? Complete air? Has this player shown similar tendencies to previously seen styles of play?

    Play around with various ranges you think he would shove with and see how your equity holds up.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    When I have the luxury of being off-table, the way that I like to analyze these situations is to play around and figure out how you perform against different ranges:
    - Vs nut hands, you're obviously crushed: 9% equity
    - If we add in nut flush draws, making the value-to-bluff ratio 3:1, you have 22% equity.
    - If we add in second nut flush draws, making the value-to-bluff ratio 3:2, you have about 30% equity.
    - Adding in third nut flush draws for a value-to-bluff ratio of about 1:1, you have about 35% equity.

    You need about 39% equity to justify calling, so even if they're bluffing at a super high frequency (for NL10), you still have a fold. You'd need them to be bluffing at an even higher frequency, or shoving pocket pairs like 88, but most players at NL10 don't do either of those things, so I think that this is a fold.

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