Missed Chance to Steal Pot?

gl523gl523 Red Chipper Posts: 86 ✭✭
$.02/.04 Online 6 Players
Effective Stack Size: $4.66

Hero is on SB with :8D: :5D: .
HJ bets $.16. Hero calls.

Pot: $.36
Flop: :4S: :TC: :QC:
Hero checks. HJ checks.

Pot:$.36
Turn: :2C:
Hero checks. HJ checks.

Pot: $.36
River: :9H:
Hero checks. HJ checks.
HJ shows :KH: :3H: .

So I realized that I called too wide against Villain but that's not the question that I have. Did I miss a chance to steal the pot? If so, how could I have done so? I chose to play it safe since my hand reading skills are way too slow to make a well thought decision. If I missed the chance, is the correct line to fire on the turn and river trying to rep a flush?
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Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭✭
    Calling a 4x open from the worst position at the table is a losing proposition. Your can't really acknowledge this and follow it up with an attempt to play the hand. It should have never seen the flop.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    Agreed that you definitely should have folded pre here, but we all make mistakes sometimes and I disagree (with the other commenters) that this means we can't analyze it as played.

    I think that you could definitely take this away on the turn. The thing is, I think we can expect Villain to be betting this flop a lot with his value hands. Top pair and better, even middle pair really should be betting this because of how many draws there are available. So when they check, they should be pretty weak and thus you should be able to steal it on the turn, especially when a scare card comes.

    If we assume 1) an 18% opening range, 2) they bet the flop with middle pair and better, and check their draws, and 3) that they are only continuing the turn with a flush or a strong draw, we're getting about 50% folds, which is more than enough to throw out a bluff. If we assume that they're betting the flop with their flush draws, well now their turn range is even weaker. The reason to give up is if you think they're checking the flop with their strong pairs or if you think they're sticky on the turn, but I wouldn't assume either of those things.

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