Good Bet Sizing?

gl523gl523 Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
$.02/.04 Online 6 Players
Effective Stack Size: $7.34

Hero is on UTG with :JS: :JH: .
Hero raises to $.12. BU calls.

Pot: $.30
Flop: :3D: :8C: :9D:
Hero bets $.20. BU calls.

Pot: $.70
Turn: :6S:
Hero bets $.48. BU calls.

Pot: $1.66
River: :AH:
Hero bets $1.30. BU folds.

The flop and turn bets were due to protecting against overcards. The river bet was due to the assumption that Villain wouldn't double float with Ace high. Did I miss out on value with my bet sizing on any of the streets? My bet sizing knowledge is a bit lacking so I could use some help with this area in general. I chose to bet 2/3 each time since I thought that was good enough to price out hands that could beat me later while not trying to bloat the pot with only an overpair.
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Comments

  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 281 ✭✭✭
    I really like your bet sizing, good job! What do you think about checking the river since he is probably folding his weak pairs to a river bet? Maybe he is bluffing with his missed FDs...
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    Since we're talking about bet sizing here, I'd like to comment that I think you could go bigger preflop, probably to 4bb, possibly 5bb if they're willing to call. I say that because I assume that you'll still get calls from worse stuff, which is your goal with JJ. And it also has the benefit of discouraging a multiway pot, which you also want. (Those may sound like contradictory statements, but I don't think they really are.) The downside I see here is that you probably can't justify opening as widely, and maybe you do want to open more hands if you think you have enough of an advantage postflop, but I personally like keeping things tight UTG.

    Flop, I think you could bump it up to full pot. I think 9x, flush draws and OESD are all calling full pot. 8x and 3x, maybe not, but those aren't too large a portion of your opponents range. And they may even decide to give it a whirl for one street.

    It's also worth noting that your hand is relatively vulnerable. Flush draws have a ton of outs against you - outs to the flush, and probably some outs to an overcard. 9x has 5 outs. Another thing is that there are a decent amount of cards that could kill the action. If he's got 9x, a flush completing card or an overcard probably will. Same with if he stuck around with a smaller pair.

    Turn, I actually think the same thing applies. His range is probably pretty heavily weighted towards 9x and flush draws, and I think all of that is calling up to a pot sized bet, so I'd bump it up again to full pot.

    River, I agree that he probably isn't double-floating with something like AJ, but there are the Axdd combos, along with A9 and possibly A8 and A3. There aren't too many 9x combos, and I wouldn't be sure that they are calling a river bet, so river looks a little thin to me, but it could be good. One thing I would say is that since you're targeting 9x and we're talking about bet sizing here, I'd bet smaller, probably about half pot. The bigger bet size, especially since it's your third barrel and an ace is a scare card, could induce 9x to fold.

    https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/170/live-low-stakes-nl/cotm-bet-sizing-revisited-1735819/ is a really great read on bet sizing. The idea is that you want to give your opponents the incorrect odds to draw. Not just in terms of their immediate pot odds, but the implied odds they have. The author gives a cool example of it being +EV for a gutshot to call a half pot bet when you flop a set if they're going stack you (which is very plausible when you have a set). I still need to study that stuff way more.

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