Raise or call with set on monotone board vs passive player?

RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 9.36, 3Bet Preflop: 2.27, Hands: 238)
CO: 44.5 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 3.17, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 63)
BTN: 177.4 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 53)
SB: 80.1 BB (VPIP: 21.85, PFR: 3.31, 3Bet Preflop: 1.54, Hands: 154)
Hero (BB): 132.2 BB
UTG: 118.4 BB (VPIP: 14.67, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 76)
UTG+1: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 1.75, Hands: 121)
MP: 192.2 BB (VPIP: 15.31, PFR: 13.27, 3Bet Preflop: 7.58, Hands: 202)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9h 9d
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop : (9 BB, 3 players) 8c 2c 9c
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn : (9 BB, 3 players) Kh
SB bets 6.4 BB, Hero raises to 20 BB, fold, SB calls 13.6 BB

River : (49 BB, 2 players) 3c
SB bets 23.3 BB, fold

SB wins 46.6 BB
0.8 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.

UTG opens and seems like a competent player that is not getting out of line or opening too wide. The SB has been playing a decent amount of hands but only raises QQ+ and maybe AK. I have seen him flat hands as strong as TT and JJ vs LP opens. I think he will usually have a relatively strong range here even though he flatted from the SB just because he never 3bets. I think he has a range of something like 55-JJ maybe sometimes QQ, A2s-AKs, ATo-AKo, K9s-KQs, Q9s-QJs and 87s-JTs.

I flop top set and it checks through. I think UTG is pretty weak here as I think he is betting sets here (very few combos from UTG), most nut flush draws and JJ+ with a :club .

SB bets about 2/3 pot and I need to decide between calling and raising. I decided to raise as I thought in game he has many pairs with a single :club as well as some broadway combos with one :club. He calls pretty quickly and I don't think this kind of player is ever bet/folding this turn. I think this narrows his turn range down to A3cc-A7cc, ATcc-AKcc, ATo-AKo with the A of :club, KJo-KQo and 3 combos of 88. The big issue I have is that I don't know if he would raise his strong flushes on this turn. I know he plays his big hands super passive pre flop but I haven't really seen enough of his post flop play to determine what he would do with a hand like the nut flush here.

When the river comes another club I have to check/fold as I don't think he is ever value betting anything but a flush here and most of the hands in his range have at least one club in it.

On the turn he only has 15 combos of made flushes compared to about 45 combos of hands with single clubs in them. I think my raise makes sense based on this but if the river comes a blank what line do I take? Do I bet with the plan to fold to raise? If the river is not a club I think it makes sense to bet for value targeting his Kx knowing I may be value owning myself some of the time.

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