Facing donkbet with flushdraw and turning a pair

LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 458 ✭✭✭
edited May 14 in Live Poker Hands
€1/€1 homegame -- 7 players

Preflop
UTG limps
UTG+1 (covers) limps
Hero in HJ (€286) raises to €11 with :JS: :TS:
CO calls
BU calls
SB (€245) calls
UTG calls
UTG+1 calls

Flop (6 players - €67)
:KS: :7h :6S:
SB (€234) bets €34
UTG+1 (covers) calls
Hero (€275) calls
Everyone else folds

Turn (3 players - €169)
:JD:
SB (€200) checks
UTG+1 (covers) bets €67
Hero (€241) goes all-in


Standard open preflop, expecting some calls but normally isolates one or two limpers.
Both UTG and UTG+1 have quite transparent preflop limping ranges, meaning they have some weakish playable hands which are not good enough to open.

SB plays weird. Haven't really been able to pinpoint what's going on with him, but I was expecting him to have a pretty wide range with at the bottom some decent draws (OESD, flush draw) and at the top something like K7.

UTG+1 calling his donkbet made me think he also has around the same range but I think he would raise his two pair+ (which would only be 67, 66 and 77). Also, the strongest Kx in his range he is sure to open-raise.

Now Hero has to decide between betting or raising. The problem with raising is that a 3-bet would absolutely suck as we have to forfeit so much equity while we can call profitably.

On the turn, the check by SB showed weakness. Now, I am quite sure he doesn't have a very strong hand (something like a weak Kx or draw). Given all the action UTG+1 doesn't have to be strong at all, despite him betting. He doesn't have any strong Kx, and I think he would raise his two pairs+ as I said. The J doesn't really help him at all (barring :TS: :9s). I sensed weakness, so I decided to jam, expecting both SB and UTG+1 to fold a lot and should hero get called he has varying degrees of equity.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    I find your flop / turn analysis to be non consistent. I mean I agree with your analysis on both, but then why would you raise turn instead of call (esp. since you got some SDV and you block top 2P) ? Why would you raise turn instead of flop when there was already that much weakness ?

    Also I don't really like your turn bet sizing. It's very big. Yeah I don't see any smaller bet sizing (it would left a ridicule stack for river), but right on this turn, it's meh.
    This also forces you to have both V to fold more often to be +EV (in a pure bluff EV point of view). Do they fold enough ?
    This also impact your range construction. So big also means polarized. And MP+mid FD isn't a hand I'd put in a pole range. (And you don't really have blocker either)

    Furthermore, if we call and expect SB to x/f, by calling there will be a 301$ pot and 174$ remaining. you can call with position and a good hand and an ok draws and block top 2P. This would be an river to handle I think.
    So by shoving turn, you kill all of your river edge.


    ****
    If I were SB, I'd call with any TP I've here.
    Since you didn't raise flop you shall not have a monster hand - or you play "dangerously" play trappy on a flushy board - which include not having AA, AK or KxQs. Out of the blues I'd say you might overbluff (draw, QQ, JX) when turn shove because of check flop AND overbet turn.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 768 ✭✭✭
    edited May 14
    I like the turn shove. The idea of calling with SDV I can understand but I think this is a case where you can get better hands to fold and worse to call

    I believe you can get a lot of Kings to fold and draws to call.

    IMO
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 121 ✭✭
    Sully wrote: »
    I like the turn shove. The idea of calling with SDV I can understand but I think this is a case where you can get better hands to fold and worse to call

    I believe you can get a lot of Kings to fold and draws to call.

    IMO

    I like a mix of both....with more calls than shoves.
    I'm calling more of my range than shoving I'd imagine...
    QQ, AJ, KQ, KT, etc.

    If live reads are telling me they are weak...then shoving to fold weak kings isn't horrible...and I think some worse combo draws will call here too!
    Of course, you can let them value own of bluff the river too on many cards.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 458 ✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    I find your flop / turn analysis to be non consistent. I mean I agree with your analysis on both, but then why would you raise turn instead of call (esp. since you got some SDV and you block top 2P) ? Why would you raise turn instead of flop when there was already that much weakness ?

    Well, because on the flop SB could still have very strong hands, and I wasn't quite sure what he would do with Kx if I raised. The turn check gave away his true strength and that's why I saw an opportunity.
    Red wrote: »
    Also I don't really like your turn bet sizing. It's very big. Yeah I don't see any smaller bet sizing (it would left a ridicule stack for river), but right on this turn, it's meh.
    This also forces you to have both V to fold more often to be +EV (in a pure bluff EV point of view). Do they fold enough ?
    This also impact your range construction. So big also means polarized. And MP+mid FD isn't a hand I'd put in a pole range. (And you don't really have blocker either)

    I do think SB would fold like 90% of the time, so it's mosly a question of if +1 can fold enough. But of course I always have some degree of equity so I thought I would be good often enough. The problem with range construction is very interesting and I'm glad you bring this up. Nice one

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