AK off OOP turn it into a bluff?

NTD12NTD12 Red Chipper Posts: 60 ✭✭
Been thinking about this hand a lot.

2/5 NL Effective stack is about $600(V) I have about $700-$800.

Table is fairly passive with remaining players. Minimal 3 bets. These are mostly tight passive players that will really only raise or 3 bet with really good hands.

Hero: :As :Kc UTG Open to $25. 3 Callers, all late position and the button, blinds fold.

Flop($107): :Ad :Qh :Tc

I C Bet $100. Folds to button who calls. I Cbet because I block all the AQ hands. My read is there is a ton of lower pairs who would set mine with hands like 99, 88, maybe 77 and definitely 10,10. There is also KJ hands that could call and flop a straight but highly unlikely just based on math odds.

My initial read is he has a set or straight. Mostly likely 10s as I think QQ is a hand he would have bet pre flop.

Turn ($307)is a blank... I think a 4. I check. Button bets $150 and I fold. He shows 10,10.

My initial read is straight or set but in thinking about it more I think a straight would have raised for value? So that would leave him on a set. Most likely 10s.

Thoughts on an all in bluff? I have some equity but not much. I think in hindsight I have good(50%) fold equity.

I think the only other line would have been to just check the flop and go into check fold mode but I don't really like that. It just seems too nitty to me.

Thoughts?

Thanks

Comments

  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    All in bluff? Not sure if serious. Villains at this level are not folding sets with a card to come and them having outs to a boat. Your fold equity is close to zero. Your biggest mistake was betting flop. I check call flop. If villain bets again on turn, I would fold. Making straights where you only use one card don't normally get paid off.
  • NTD12NTD12 Red Chipper Posts: 60 ✭✭
    Yes all in bluff. I would check-raise all in bluff. I think your right on the zero fold equity in general but based on this table and this villain I may have had more. Glad I didn't try it. I didn't even think of it until a day later when I was going over the hand and thinking of different ways to play it.

    As soon as he called the flop bet I knew I was beat and went into check fold mode on the turn.

    I agree on the flop bet being a mistake but it seemed right at the time to me.

    Thanks for the advice.
  • SuessSuess Red Chipper Posts: 85 ✭✭
    Don't we, as the preflop UTG raiser, have a huge range advantage on this flop?

    Why are you guys saying that we should check it?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,299 -
    Suess wrote: »
    Don't we, as the preflop UTG raiser, have a huge range advantage on this flop?

    Why are you guys saying that we should check it?

    We're OOP to 3 players and cannot have the literal nuts.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 18
    NTD12 wrote: »
    As soon as he called the flop bet I knew I was beat and went into check fold mode on the turn.
    Game Theory Disaster.
    Why do you bet if only better hands continue?
    NTD12 wrote: »
    I agree on the flop bet being a mistake but it seemed right at the time to me.
    Betting the flop isn't a big mistake.
    The sizing is.
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 128 ✭✭
    @TheGameKat

    I disagree, we have all the sets, all 2p combos, and any broadway draws. I also agree with @Red that the sizing is the error. I would argue either 1/3-1/2...and in some cases a x/r line on this dryish flop texture
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,299 -
    edited May 19
    Deadlifts wrote: »
    @TheGameKat

    I disagree, we have all the sets, all 2p combos, and any broadway draws. I also agree with @Red that the sizing is the error. I would argue either 1/3-1/2...and in some cases a x/r line on this dryish flop texture

    Which is why I specified the literal nuts.

    Is that flop really dry?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,299 -
    I have an additional Q for the brains.

    What does range advantage actually mean when we're OOP to 3 opponents? I'd agree we have RA against a calling range and thus more than 25% equity against the field, but we certainly don't have > 50% equity against 3 opponents.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • AceBalaAceBala Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    NTD12 wrote: »
    As soon as he called the flop bet I knew I was beat and went into check fold mode on the turn.
    Game Theory Disaster.
    Why do you bet if only better hands continue?
    NTD12 wrote: »
    I agree on the flop bet being a mistake but it seemed right at the time to me.
    Betting the flop isn't a big mistake.
    The sizing is.

    What should be the bet sizing, if i am following the core properly , The more wet the board , We need to CBET more and also the course on Multi user pot suggests Small bet on the Pot could be as effective as bigger bet on the Headsup pot.. Do you think 1/2 the pot around $50 should be the bet?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    First, it's not really a wet board. Few draws are available, and they are only weak (gutshot) - no OESD, no FD, and combo draw are mostly gutshot+meh pair. In comparison, T97ssh is wet.
    Also the board is static. Most of the cards in the deck for turn and river won't change the winning hand ; so any meh hand like 44 or 7h6h has no interest of staying in the pot against any bet. Esp. against big bet (see below about that.)

    Second, I guess they say "c-bet more often on wet board", this means your range hit the board well too. On T97ssh you've plenty of hands which connect. Yet the hand selection - which ones c-bet, check call, check-raise or check-fold - is important.

    Third ... Where stand AKo on AdQhTc ?
    - UTG's (Hero) range hits the board prettly strongly. There are made straight (KJs), sets (TT, QQ, AA), 2P (AQ, ATs, QTs) in his range - at least in my UTG's range. AK for TPTK+gutshot is weak in comparison.
    - Callers don't have the best combos in their range, and they will not improve. What do they do with 7h6h ? 44 ? Td8d ? They will have a hard time. Which means they will continue only with their best hands / the hands they consider having the most change to win. Which are usually hands ahead of AK on AQTr.

    So when you start to bet with meh hands like AKo on AQTr - if even you want to bet, I personally wouldn't c-bet here and will go for pot control, eventually on turn or river with one or two small bets - the sizing should be very small.
    • Bet sizing = range. Lower sizing = wider range; allowing us to correctly bet our hand as we can expand the range from top set to TPTK. Bigger the bet, more polarized your range shall be ; and AK on AQTr isn't a hand which fits a polarized range (or you're turning TPTK into a bluff, losing his SDV, when other more fitted combos would fit the bill).
    • A lower bet sizing will widen Villain's calling range. What do they do with 44 when UTG c-bet for 1/4 or 1/5 of the pot ? If you bet TPTK for value, you want worst hands to continue.


    ps: which also means that even half pot is too big to bet with AK
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,030 -
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I have an additional Q for the brains.

    What does range advantage actually mean when we're OOP to 3 opponents? I'd agree we have RA against a calling range and thus more than 25% equity against the field, but we certainly don't have > 50% equity against 3 opponents.

    Kat, we can define words to mean whatever we want, but in the relevant sense, when someone says "I'm cbetting this board often because I have range advantage", it has to do with who has the proportional nuts, NOT who has higher equity in a range v. range equilab run.

    There is natural confusion here because the term "Range Advantage" has been defined as just looking at nut proportion, just looking at range vs. range equity, or a mix of both. It's a term that hasn't been well defined, even in today's vernacular - which brings me to point #2...

    The average player that says "I'm cbetting this board often because I have range advantage" has zero idea what that means =)
  • NTD12NTD12 Red Chipper Posts: 60 ✭✭
    edited May 30
    Red wrote: »
    NTD12 wrote: »
    As soon as he called the flop bet I knew I was beat and went into check fold mode on the turn.
    Game Theory Disaster.
    Why do you bet if only better hands continue?
    NTD12 wrote: »
    I agree on the flop bet being a mistake but it seemed right at the time to me.
    Betting the flop isn't a big mistake.
    The sizing is.

    This is where I am confused. How do we gain info without betting? Are you saying to size our bet so that only better hands will continue and lesser hands will fold?

    How do we go about figuring this sizing? It may be in Core some where but I'm not seeing where to get it.

    EDIT:

    Never mind...I reread your other post and I think I get it. It looks like I unintentionally turned it into a bluff on the flop.

    My default action is to bet larger when sometimes I should be betting smaller...or not at all.

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