Not getting 70% Model

loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
For the 70% continuation model in The One Percent, there's something just not clicking for me.

So to make sure I'm getting it right, let me ask it this way. I know I'm dumbing it down, but this is the part I'm getting stuck on:

When I decide to go in on a standard flop, am I supposed to run through the following process...
1) Evaluate the flop and come up with 70% of the hands from my range I would continue with (roughly guessing from off-table work)
2) Look at my 2 cards and see if it is one of those hands
3) Decide to continue if it's one of those hands, and check or fold if it's not?

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,030 -
    An overly-simplified answer to your overly-simplified ruleset - is yes, that's the overall idea =)
  • loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    Awesome, thank you. I must be doing something wrong in my bet sizing, or have a huge blind spot (safe to say I definitely have some huge blind spots). I seem to keep continuing because I have hands in my range, and keep losing to slightly better hands. Could I be calling too many river bets against big raises? It seems like I'm within my 70%, but near what would be the bottom end of what I'd naturally want to continue with.
  • loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    And also, thank you for the over-simplified answer. I know that could have been picked apart a whole bunch of ways...but I really needed your confirmation on that (in simple terms) for me to understand as a baseline to build upon.
  • AlpineCurtAlpineCurt Red Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    loki75 wrote: »
    I seem to keep continuing because I have hands in my range, and keep losing to slightly better hands. Could I be calling too many river bets against big raises?

    Good chance that is actually happening.

    This isn't the first time it's been said here, and certainly won't be the last: the 70% model is a very rough estimate of an average continuing frequency. You do not need to continue with exactly 70% every time. It's designed to get you thinking about poker in terms of your and your opponents' frequencies. With your case of calling too many river bets, your opponents (the player pool in general) likely have a frequency issue on the river: They aren't continuing on the river often enough, which leaves their entire range almost all value hands. If you're calling with 70% of your river range vs this value heavy range, you will often be paying them off.

    Taking this a step further: if the assumption that most players are not betting often enough on the river due to having a very value focused range is true, then we've identified a frequency issue in their game we can exploit. We simply fold to their river bets (unless of course we have the nuts).

    @loki75, are there any other actions you see players doing too often or too little? How would you describe that frequency issue and how would you attack it?
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,030 -
    loki75 wrote: »
    And also, thank you for the over-simplified answer. I know that could have been picked apart a whole bunch of ways...but I really needed your confirmation on that (in simple terms) for me to understand as a baseline to build upon.

    You're very welcome. And @AlpineCurt responded really well fwiw =)
  • loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    Yes! That seems to fit. It does seem I'm running into a very value-heavy range on the river. I've been hesitant to fold because I don't want to be perceived as having a frequency issue myself, but the majority of the time it seems like a hero call. And I'm not getting bluffed into much at all, so I keep losing money.
    AlpineCurt wrote: »
    @loki75, are there any other actions you see players doing too often or too little? How would you describe that frequency issue and how would you attack it?

    I'm pretty sure that was a rhetorical question, but you are spot-on to bring that up. I'm not asking the right questions and thinking through the answers. I suppose my best play at this point is tighten up my pre-flop range even more, and figure out the answers to those questions.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,289 -
    Your preflop range may be fine, I suspect the adjustment is to recognize that not all flops are created equal for continuing with that range.
    Moderation In Moderation

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file