10 NL. Should I ever x/r this board ?

andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players

mpcc604 (UTG): $10.57 (106 bb)
Andreicos (MP): $10.65 (107 bb)
meaninghell (CO): $10.03 (100 bb) (70 hands/ 19/10/0 3b/1.3 AF)
dealer FGL (BU): $13.04 (130 bb)
sunset1111 (SB): $48.99 (490 bb)
Ris2012 (BB): $10.08 (101 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero (Andreicos) is MP with T A
1 fold, Andreicos (MP) raises to $0.30, meaninghell (CO) calls $0.30, 3 players fold

Flop: ($0.75) J 8 7 (2 players)
Andreicos (MP) bets $0.42, meaninghell (CO) raises to $1, Andreicos (MP) folds

Total pot: $1.59 (Rake: $0.07)
meaninghell (CO) wins $1.52

Hello ! I know this is may not be the most exciting hand...however I had some questions about this board. I think against this villain I like my flop play. This board heavily favours the caller, however he can have weak pairs that will fold, I have good equity with a gutshot and overcard, as well as the straight blocker (I don't think I can have a bluffing hand in my range). When he raises me, since he is so passive I think he basically always has at least two pairs plus, and I cannot profitably call.

Now I was wondering whether against a more aggressive player, a x/r would be a profitable play here ? I could x/r sets and T9s for value and I would balance it with ATs and QTs as bluffs. Or is this not a board that I want to ever be x/raising, since my opponent has a higher density of nutted hands ?

Comments

  • AlpineCurtAlpineCurt Red Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    andreicos wrote: »
    This board heavily favours the caller...
    Since this is the case, ask yourself: How do I expect the opponent to react to my CBet? Given that answer, what, if anything, should I be CBetting here?
    andreicos wrote: »
    ...however he can have weak pairs that will fold
    Are you betting as a bluff? We've established that his range hits the board better. Are weaker pairs the only better hands you're targeting? That's a pretty narrow part of a perceived stronger range.
    andreicos wrote: »
    I have good equity with a gutshot and overcard, as well as the straight blocker
    Did you consider checking the flop? Given that your hand has some things going for it, but isn't eager to play a large pot OOP, would check-calling the flop be a better option?
    andreicos wrote: »
    When he raises me, since he is so passive I think he basically always has at least two pairs plus, and I cannot profitably call.
    Did you witness him make very passive plays prior to this hand? 70 hands isn't a large sample. As played, you're getting around 3.5:1 to call his raise with plenty left behind.
  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    AlpineCurt wrote: »
    andreicos wrote: »
    This board heavily favours the caller...
    Since this is the case, ask yourself: How do I expect the opponent to react to my CBet? Given that answer, what, if anything, should I be CBetting here?

    I expect to him raise me at a high frequency with straights, sets, and some gutshots as bluffs; I'd get called by any top pair, pp below tp, mid pairs. I consider that I have hands such as QQ, AJ, KJ, that can bet for value and that would highly benefit from equity denial, and I would have to balance them with some bluffs. I could be choosing some weaker hands, such as overcards with a backdoor flush-draw.
    andreicos wrote: »
    ...however he can have weak pairs that will fold
    Are you betting as a bluff? We've established that his range hits the board better. Are weaker pairs the only better hands you're targeting? That's a pretty narrow part of a perceived stronger range.

    Yeah, I'm betting as a bluff. I expect him to fold 66, 55, some lower pp if he has them, and his KQ combos. This is a small % of his range, maybe 30%, yet I think that given the equity that I have, on good turn cards I could fire another barrel.
    andreicos wrote: »
    I have good equity with a gutshot and overcard, as well as the straight blocker
    Did you consider checking the flop? Given that your hand has some things going for it, but isn't eager to play a large pot OOP, would check-calling the flop be a better option?

    It might be now that I think about it. Initially I considered that it would be too weak to x/call.
    andreicos wrote: »
    When he raises me, since he is so passive I think he basically always has at least two pairs plus, and I cannot profitably call.
    Did you witness him make very passive plays prior to this hand? 70 hands isn't a large sample. As played, you're getting around 3.5:1 to call his raise with plenty left behind.

    Indeed I am making a very strong assumptions from nothing other than the stats. I am indeed getting a very good price, however against a nutted range I don't have the equity required. Even if I were to pick up a fd on the turn, he could bet large so that I don't get the equity to call. If I add some top pairs and a few AT, JT combos as bluffs, I still only have ~22% equity, and I don't expect to be able to realise all of it.

    thanks for the reply!
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,094 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's very simple: where your opponent has more hits than you, your bets (wagers against the board vis a vis range), must decline.

    So you should not like your flop play. It targets a fraction of the opponent range rather than reaponding to it as a whole. Your idea of xr, however has merit - now you are projecting the slimmer number of combos which can lay a heavy price on this board.

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