Should I Have Seen This Coming?

loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
So this happened last night (link to hand as it played out):

http://mysmp.me/h_mY3

I'm not sure if the Turn had come rag (let's say 2s) if I would have played the hand any differently, although who won would have changed.

Do you think I should have seen his hole cards coming?

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 5
    Without any information about Villain and your own strategy (in a vacuum; on this table), it's hard to assess anything...

    What I don't like is the donkbet. I mean I could be on board sometimes as this board isn't the best ever for a UTG's range (depending how tight he opens, he could not have the nut advantage). But there is still HJ, which could have them. Nontheless, UTG has all overpair and has top set (blocked) ; if he is like me - doesn't like to be donkbet - he could raise you and you'll be in a tough spot as you've a marginal made hand which is then very probably behind (better TP or overpair); you'd be forced to fold too often a hand with good equity.
    Personally I prefer to x/c and stab turn if flop is checked through.

    Also, and more importantly, I think you're betting too big. Your hand is rather marginal, betting so big makes it difficult for Villain to continue with worst hands (except if making calling mistakes). I'd rather bet smaller, laying a merged price.
    (Also since you've QT, you're blocking QJ and KQ, the best draws UTG could have, meaning a call from him is rather a made hand better than QT rather than a draw or overcards)

    Hence, if I had to donk, I'd rather either bet smaller (merged price) or with a stronger combos (pole range).
    This also solve most of the "what do I do once I don't improve on turn?" In a pole line you can continue (or not, depending on how the board texture evolves) with monsters and weak draws ; in a merged line you still have worst hands to either check or bet into, with the aim to win often at showdown.
  • LoveFishLoveFish IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 92 ✭✭
    Why are you leading the flop?
  • loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    LoveFish wrote: »
    Why are you leading the flop?

    My rationale (which could be wrong) was this table had a lot of players frequently raising above-pot, such as $8 on a $6 pot.

    If I led the betting:
    - I could attempt to control the bet sizing
    - I didn't think both people would fold, so I wanted to attempt to build the pot
    - I thought given the board, I may need to protect my hand some, and I was willing to take the money already in the pot if they both did fold
    - I put out a probe bet to see if I was going to be re-raised

    If I had been re-raised on the flop, I'd have considered that a bad event. But if I called and got the Q like I did, I'd consider that a good event.

    What are your thoughts on that?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭
    loki75 wrote: »
    If I had been re-raised on the flop, I'd have considered that a bad event. But if I called and got the Q like I did, I'd consider that a good event.
    So your plan is, if raised, to call OOP and hope to hit one of your 5 (maybe 3) outs ? That's your plan, to hit one of 5 or 3 good card on the remaining 33 in the deck ?
    ... Does that sound like playing bingo or playing poker ?
  • loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    loki75 wrote: »
    If I had been re-raised on the flop, I'd have considered that a bad event. But if I called and got the Q like I did, I'd consider that a good event.
    So your plan is, if raised, to call OOP and hope to hit one of your 5 (maybe 3) outs ? That's your plan, to hit one of 5 or 3 good card on the remaining 33 in the deck ?
    ... Does that sound like playing bingo or playing poker ?

    I guess I have a lot to learn. My actual plan is not to hit 3 good cards remaining, my plan is to continue in my range at a 70% rate unless I have to adjust that based on good or bad events.

    The way I saw it, I had both a BDFD and a possible straight draw, along with the possibility of hitting 2 pairs or trips. So 3 Queens, 2 Tens, 4 Jacks, 4 Kings, 8 diamonds I haven't mentioned...that right there is 21 cards that would allow me to continue, and not lose equity.

    I've been trying to change my mindset from looking for reasons to fold, to reasons to continue...using a 2-1 bluff-to-value ratio on the flop, 1-1 on the turn, and 1-2 on the river.

    If another card had come on the turn or villain had bet differently , I would have had to have adjusted my bet, check, call, or fold play. I posted this because I had another forum post that pointed out I kept getting beat by AA, and wanted to know how to correct that so I didn't keep losing money.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭
    loki75 wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    loki75 wrote: »
    If I had been re-raised on the flop, I'd have considered that a bad event. But if I called and got the Q like I did, I'd consider that a good event.
    So your plan is, if raised, to call OOP and hope to hit one of your 5 (maybe 3) outs ? That's your plan, to hit one of 5 or 3 good card on the remaining 33 in the deck ?
    ... Does that sound like playing bingo or playing poker ?
    The way I saw it, I had both a BDFD and a possible straight draw, along with the possibility of hitting 2 pairs or trips. So 3 Queens, 2 Tens, 4 Jacks, 4 Kings, 8 diamonds I haven't mentioned...that right there is 21 cards that would allow me to continue, and not lose equity.
    That's right if V only calls: there are some cards to improve your equity. But don't they also improve V's equity? Is a K better for you or for V ?
    Still, this only is a discussion if V calls. As said, I'd raise you pretty often when you donk me. What do you do against a 18$ flop raise ?
    loki75 wrote: »
    I guess I have a lot to learn. My actual plan is not to hit 3 good cards remaining, my plan is to continue in my range at a 70% rate unless I have to adjust that based on good or bad events.
    70% rate is a) only a rule-of-thumb not a holy rule, b) is for when you've initiative : how many hands you keep c-betting and c) is in a vacuum aka doesn't take ranges or board in account. I'd add that since then solver appears and advocate for way more checking.

    Many other situations would prefer a lower / way lower continuation % (like H opening UTG an getting called by BU and BB on now 765hss), some specific will prefer a higher to a 100% continuation % (like on 522 in a 3bet pot when you 3bet).
  • loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Many other situations would prefer a lower / way lower continuation % (like H opening UTG an getting called by BU and BB on now 765hss), some specific will prefer a higher to a 100% continuation % (like on 522 in a 3bet pot when you 3bet).

    Thanks for your help. I can't wait to know as much as you, but time and study is probably the only way there. I took the Poker 1% course and proper bet sizing, along with when to bet, call, or check is still a big weakness in my game.

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