Postflop Level 2 Quiz (C betting)

CaptainFalconCaptainFalcon Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
We are asked whether to cbet or check behind given the following context:

You are debating making a pot-sized c-bet with 99 here.

If villain would only give you action with 6x, Tx, Ax, and flush draws – should you c-bet here?
6qyu3n5z4t1r.jpg

The answer given was to cbet, but this seems very off to me. I checked the scenario in Flopzilla and, although we fold out a decent chunk of villains range, we have a mere 14% equity against his continuing range! This is compared to 47% equity if we check back, which I think would be the correct decision. I've attached below a screenshot of my flopzilla analysis if we cbet and get called so it can be checked for accuracy.
wuq2obendo1b.jpg

Comments

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 471 ✭✭✭
    Villain is folding 2/3rds of the time so your 50% break-even percentage is exceeded. I think that's it?
  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    Hey !

    First time I looked at the question I got it wrong for the same reason. I'd figured this is a good sd hand that's great for checking.

    First of all I think your % are slightly wrong, because you marked 76 and 65 as only diamond combos, however he will call 76 and 65 of the other suits. This is just a side note however, it only changes the percentages by 2-3.

    Well if we check our equity is 47%, thus, assuming we get to realise all of it by the river, the EV of checking in a 10BB pot is 10*0.47=4.7 BB.

    If we cbet pot he folds 53% of his hands and we have 18% equity against his calling range. The EV I thus get for raising is 3.13 BB.

    I guess however often times we get bluffed off the pot if we x back and than the actual EV of checking is much lower.. .Also a lot of the hands he folds, like KQ,QJ,KJ have a lot of equity against our hand, ~41.5%. In reality, if we x often times V will fire with flushdraws and gutshots and we will have to fold a lot.

    Yet assuming he only he bets 30% of the time, (top pair+, fd, KQ) and we fold the EV of checking becomes 0.7*0.54*10 BB= 3.78 BB (54% is the equity vs his checking range).

    So this actually seems fairly villain dependant to me and not so straightforward ? Though I might be underestimating the value of denying equity. Also the question says "villain only gives action with 6x, Tx, Ax and flush draws". Does this not include two pairs+ ? Does it mean that he re-raises those ?

    Sorry if this all makes no sense I actually got a bit confused myself after re-looking at the question.
  • CaptainFalconCaptainFalcon Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Villain is folding 2/3rds of the time so your 50% break-even percentage is exceeded. I think that's it?

    Thanks, I guess that makes sense. Perhaps a smaller bet sizing would be optimal, but this should at least be a profitable bet.

    andreicos wrote: »
    First of all I think your % are slightly wrong, because you marked 76 and 65 as only diamond combos, however he will call 76 and 65 of the other suits. This is just a side note however, it only changes the percentages by 2-3.

    Good catch. And thank you for your overall answer. It's clear you took several different factors into account and made some calculations.
    andreicos wrote: »
    Well if we check our equity is 47%, thus, assuming we get to realise all of it by the river, the EV of checking in a 10BB pot is 10*0.47=4.7 BB.

    If we cbet pot he folds 53% of his hands and we have 18% equity against his calling range. The EV I thus get for raising is 3.13 BB.

    I think you have the right idea, but it looks like some values are off in your calculation for when we bet. I calculated that villain is folding 66% of the time based on (171-58)/171 combos folding. The folding % will be slightly less since (as you pointed out) villain calls non-diamond suits of 76s and 65s, but the value should still be well above 53%. If we do use the 66% figure, I believe we would make .66*$10 when villain folds and .18 (our equity)*.34 (villain's calling frequency)*$30 (the size of the pot when villain calls our pot size bet) when villain calls for a total EV of (,66*$10)+(.18*.34*$30)=$6.60+$1.84=$8.44. That would exceed the $4.70 from checking back. Let me know if that seems right to you.
    andreicos wrote: »
    I guess however often times we get bluffed off the pot if we x back and than the actual EV of checking is much lower.. .Also a lot of the hands he folds, like KQ,QJ,KJ have a lot of equity against our hand, ~41.5%. In reality, if we x often times V will fire with flushdraws and gutshots and we will have to fold a lot.

    Yes, it is pretty striking how many of his overcard hands with good equity are folding. I imagine that's why the overall fold % is so high and villain's remaining calling range is pretty nutted.
    andreicos wrote: »
    Also the question says "villain only gives action with 6x, Tx, Ax and flush draws". Does this not include two pairs+ ? Does it mean that he re-raises those ?

    I interpreted 6x as meaning any facedown cards with at least one six. So villiain's range would include sets (of 6s and Ts) as well as the AT two pair.
  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    Well I have him calling 78 out of 168 combose0rxif6d1qkk.png
  • CaptainFalconCaptainFalcon Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    andreicos wrote: »
    Well I have him calling 78 out of 168 combose0rxif6d1qkk.png

    Ok, it looks like you're right. In the opponent's continuing range I was missing not just the non-diamond combos for 6x hands, but also for Tx and Ax hands. Thus the opponent would be folding far less than I calculated.

    I think the overall result is the same though because even if we had zero equity against his continuing range (we actually have 18%), we would make .53 (folding frequency) *$10=$5.30 from betting as opposed to .47 (hand equity) *10=$4.70 from checking back.

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