Strange hand?

sumoswimsumoswim Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 106.1 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.50, Hands: 317)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.82, PFR: 13.20, 3Bet Preflop: 5.94, Hands: 1,708)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 13.91, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 116)
BB: 115.4 BB (VPIP: 21.89, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 5.17, Hands: 475)
Hero (UTG): 141.4 BB
MP: 134.6 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 2.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 86)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4h 4d



Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO raises to 12 BB, BTN calls 12 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 9 BB, fold

Flop : (40.5 BB, 3 players) 5h 7c Js

Note: miss X/f, fail to x/f

Hero bets 15.2 BB, CO calls 15.2 BB, BTN calls 15.2 BB

Turn : (86.1 BB, 3 players) Qd
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

River : (86.1 BB, 3 players) 4c
Hero bets 107 BB, CO calls 78.9 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero shows 4h 4d (Three of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 12%, Turn 0%)

CO shows Qc Qh (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 88%, Turn 100%)


Comments

  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    otf I'm pretty much always x/folding. I don't think I can ever get the FE 3-way on this board.

    You have a lot of hands on BTN, maybe some more stats such as call 3B, some flop, turn, maybe even river stats would help.

    I'd assume CO has a small 3b% so PF I'd give him QQ+, AK, AQs. Otr he probably has something like QQ+ (since he slows pays sets, probably he slow plays overpairs as well ?). I think he calls the shove with AA and QQ, but not sure about KK
    If we assume he gets to the river with QQ+ and he calls everything to a shove, you beat him 80% of the time.

    Let's say BTN shows up otr with 77, 99-QQ, AJ,KJ,QJ,JT and he calls two pairs+ to a shove. (although this may be wrong and you'd be able to construct a better range using the stats that you have on him). You're ahead of 72% of his range and he would call 35%. When he calls you only win 18% of the time.

    You could take all the possible scenarios ( they both call and you win, they both call and you lose, BTN calls, HJ folds and you lose etc.) and calculate their EV

    Initially I thought that since you're far behind BTN calling range, you'd be losing money by shoving here, however he folds so often and CO calls so much with a range that you have dominated that this is very profitable. Even if CO folds KK, the shove is still profitable since BTN is folding so much (this would change however if he folds TT,99 otf, though given the pot odds he gets I think he calls)

    You could also bet small ( like 1/4 pot) and fold to BTN shove, call CO. If CO shoves the hands he would call anyways than this would be more profitable, assuming BTN doesn't turn some of his 88/99 into a bluff and makes you fold the best hand a considerable % of the time (in my experience people usually don't do that).



  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,036 ✭✭✭✭
    Preflop we could see a bet/call since there will go MW and it's 100BB. Still we are facing strong ranges (3bet and cold call 3bet)

    On the flop: we play 44 as set mining, we miss, we check/fold. Anything else is splashy to spewy and you've just been punished for that.
    (Don't think the river is a cooler: mistakes in earlier streets put you in that spot; even, by overbet-shoving, what does call you except a better set?)

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