Action with Big Draw

babalouisebabalouise Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
Playing 10nl online, I had this hand:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 134.9 BB (VPIP: 17.99, PFR: 14.76, 3Bet Preflop: 7.56, Hands: 17,747)
SB: 102.9 BB (VPIP: 16.11, PFR: 6.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.40, Hands: 643)
BB: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 3.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
UTG: 126.9 BB (VPIP: 33.13, PFR: 17.79, 3Bet Preflop: 3.64, Hands: 164)
UTG+1: 112 BB (VPIP: 21.75, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 4.94, Hands: 3,789)
MP: 99 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (CO): 92.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:spade: A:spade:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) T:spade: 8:club: 9:spade:
BB bets 3 BB, UTG+1 raises to 15 BB


At this point in the action, do you suggest re-raising, or calling? I don't want to just call and then face a big bet on turn if I miss. But I don't want to re-raise if somebody already has the nut straight (although I do have the J blocker).

Fold doesn't seem like an option. Any thoughts?

Comments

  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    You block QJss which is the best possible hand on this board.

    Which such a strong draw you can either raise or call imo. Even if you miss the turn you'd still have 15 outs to improve to the river + good IO if you hit a flush and he has a straight, so you can call even a pot bet.

    But on the other hand raising is also good to get some FE and to build the pot for when you hit your draw.
  • babalouisebabalouise Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    In my head, I was thinking of Ed Miller's mantra "Does villain want to play for stacks? If so, STOP BETTING (unless you have the nuts)." It looks like one of these guys may want to play for stacks. BB bet out, and UTG+1 raised big...

    So I just called. BB (who had bet out to begin with) now re-raised to 35 BB ($3.95). UTG+1 folded.

    My action: call, raise, or fold? It looks like BB has a straight. Though I do still have the Js blocker to the nut straight. If BB already has QJ, then I'm down to only 9 outs for the nut flush - about a 36%.

    Does anybody think that BB might make this play (raise and then re-raise) with just a set or 2 pair? I didn't think so. But, if they have a small straight, I now have 14 outs to make a higher straight or a flush.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    You've to ask yourself why is BB donkbetting on such board ? Why small ? Why UTG+1 raise when there is still someone behind ?

    Board texture is important. Low stakes, very often a donkbet is a meh TP who does a probe bet, very often a bet/fold. Usually it's a rather dry-ish board like KT5 and they have K7.
    Here, I really don't see BB donking only a TP. And BB doesn't seem such of an aggro player (his PFR is very low). So I think BB got a strong hand, 2P+ incl. made straight. Which also implies he will probably never fold on flop.

    UTG+1 raising is really hard to assess. It could be AA, TPTK, QQ (overpair + gutshot) trying to scare away. It could be top set or the actual nuts (but not the bottom straifght) who want to build the pot / make the FD pay.

    AsJs has between 30ish% (MW) and 40ish% (HU) equity.
    - Can we only pay ? No, we don't really have the right price. We need to have IO (= Villain pay when we improve to the nuts) to pay - which will be difficult since it will be either an obvious club flush or a 4 cards straight on the board. So rather meh.
    - Can we raise ? Only if we have FE. Considering the action on this board, I don't think both will fold. But we are drawing to the nuts (flush) and almost nuts (straight), so it's definitely a high equity hand.

    The problem with raising is that you've to raise big (polarized bet), which requires to put a ton of aggressive dead money in the pot. If BB or UTG+1 shove over the top, you will be force to get along because of the dead money in the middle.

    **
    Calling is IMHO not great because you play too passively without the right direct odds and without much IO.
    Raising might not be bad in another scenario, but I don't think we have enough FE here. Do they fold 2P or bottom straight if you raise to 40BB ?
    So when we could sometimes to show muscles and create an image (works better live than online), I think it might be at best barely +EV - and high variance. Here... I think I'd play snug and fold.

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