Bet Sizing Overbet on Flop

Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
This hand came up yesterday and I think I lost value by not betting larger. Villain is a young hispanic with tattoos and we are 500 dollars effective at 1/2.
Utg Straddles to 5 dollars and folds to hero on the button with 78s(diamonds). I raise to 20 dollars and the straddle defends. Pot=43 The flop is jdtc9h villain checks and I bet 25 dollars. This looks like a perfect spot to overbet for value but how big can I make it to extract max value? I'm thinking I can get bet 55 dollars(1.28pot) and get a ton of action from all pair+straight combos, 2 pairs and sets. Also because of villains characteristics(straddler and tattoos) should I think of going larger such as 1.5x pot?




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Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    Also because of villains characteristics(straddler and tattoos)
    I really don't understand. In which world do you think that people play differently with or without tattoo ? Does tattoo increase the likelihood of hitting the outs ? Are tattooed people forced to play more aggro - or maybe too passively ?
    Please, I want to know the secret strength (or weakness) of tattoo people !
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    If you play live poker it's obvious that people with excessive tattoos are looser and will call larger bet sizes. Also, the probability of bluffing also increases. If your not noticing these characteristics your not maximizing you win rate.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    I've a small tattoo on my left arm, and 2 big ones on my both breasts, shoulders and forearms. Next year I'll complete into an almost full body tattoo (whole arms+back+1/3 of legs).
    Will I turn bad at poker after being inked ?!?
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    Red I don't care about your life story. Focus on the question at hand. I did the mathematic calculations and determined 1.2x pot was the highest ev, however that was under the impression that additional hands would be folded when I bet 1.5x pot(my fold equity would increase however ev would decrease as villains remaining range becomes stronger). My question is will the particular villain (young tattoos and a straddler) not care and thus 1.5x pot would be greater ev than a 1.2x bet size against a more conventional opponent?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 11
    Where did you do / show any "mathematical calculations" to determine that 1.2 PSB was the highest EV ? I'd gladly see them.

    Yet you stubbornly present V going to act differently because of having tattoo - or being hispanic - which shows you don't observe Villain and are just stuck on stereotypes. Don't you have any other information about him, like estimation of VPIP / PFR ? 3bet % ? How does he react to a 3bet ? To a continuation to c-bet ? Does he has bet sizing tells / mistakes ? How does he play his draws ? And his nutted hands ? Is he able to raise ATC ? etc.
    These are the information you should look for, not "does he have a tattoo" or "are his shoes green"
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    Without any of us having played against this gentleman, there's no real way to know exactly how much he would be willing to call. I would definitely go larger on this flop due to the narrow betting range that we should have but overbetting it without a specific read other than the nonsense you suggested seems like a good way to generate folds without getting paid.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,704 -
    Let's pull this thread back to the hand analysis, please.

    I'll add one observation. While we would all prefer to know instantly when we sit down the VPIP/PFR/AF... of our opponents, we don't have that information. We can begin to deduce it as play proceeds, but in its absence it would be irresponsible not to use the appearance of our opponents as additional input.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    @TheGameKat sure, but let's not entertain the idea that OP is suggesting that the ethnicity and physical appearance of the opponent is going to determine the difference between betting 1.2x or 1.5x pot.

    If this sizing were part of an overall comprehensive strategy on connected boards such as this one then I would be more likely to get on board but I don't believe OP has an actual question here that he hasn't already made up his mind about.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,704 -
    Ninjah wrote: »
    @TheGameKat sure, but let's not entertain the idea that OP is suggesting that the ethnicity and physical appearance of the opponent is going to determine the difference between betting 1.2x or 1.5x pot.

    If this sizing were part of an overall comprehensive strategy on connected boards such as this one then I would be more likely to get on board but I don't believe OP has an actual question here that he hasn't already made up his mind about.

    I didn't interpret OP's question in that way. I think what is theoretically interesting here is IF we are indeed dealing with a player with the assumed playing tendencies, is an overbet warranted, and if so how big can we go?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 218 ✭✭
    edited June 12
    Red wrote: »
    Also because of villains characteristics(straddler and tattoos)
    I really don't understand. In which world do you think that people play differently with or without tattoo ?

    Tattoos correlate with a metric crapton of self destructive and anti-social behaviors. Even now that they've become more mainstream, tattooed men (prolly women too) are more likely to smoke, do drugs, engage in risky sex (and most any risky behavior you can name), etc. Basically, the tattooed have shown visibly a disregard for future consequences.

    I use every stereotypical generalization in the freeking world to get a baseline on any unknown player. Then ... show me the money. Break out of type. I'll move my opinion accordingly.

    And here's the real tip I pass to you: Appear as the opposite of what you actually are. Lose the backpack, hoodie, card protector, off brand bottle of water, earbuds, poker talk, etc.* You WILL profit. You will build a baseline image that doesn't match your play. This is great for you at least in the beginning.

    I play amongst many convention and conference tourists that look like convention and conference tourists. And so I make it a point to look even more like a well healed, well dressed conventioneer... It pays like you wouldn't believe.

    * I'm currently lobbying the NV Legislature to make poker table TV watching a capital crime. Updates when available.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 12
    Red wrote: »
    Also because of villains characteristics(straddler and tattoos)
    I really don't understand. In which world do you think that people play differently with or without tattoo ?

    Tattoos correlate with a metric crapton of self destructive and anti-social behaviors. Even now that they've become more mainstream, tattooed men (prolly women too) are more likely to smoke, do drugs, engage in risky sex (and most any risky behavior you can name), etc. Basically, the tattooed have shown visibly a disregard for future consequences.

    Just go to the closest swimming pool.... the majority wear a tattoo. 90% of 25-38yo people have a tattoo. 50-years old mothers have tattoos. Athletes, movie/song stars, nerds, designers, financial advisors, construction workers, engineers, lobbyists for national association have tattoos.

    Yes, the history of tattooing is bounded with criminals - as punishment or as subculture. But it evolved through history and is now - too - a way of expressing art in an unique and personal way.

    Binding the mindset of daredevil drug dealer with anyone wearing a tattoo is a generalization which is both offensive and leads to very wrong assumptions (here for poker playstyle).
    I use every stereotypical generalization in the freeking world to get a baseline on any unknown player. Then ... show me the money. Break out of type. I'll move my opinion accordingly.

    And here's the real tip I pass to you: Appear as the opposite of what you actually are. Lose the backpack, hoodie, card protector, off brand bottle of water, earbuds, poker talk, etc.* You WILL profit. You will build a baseline image that doesn't match your play. This is great for you at least in the beginning.

    I play amongst many convention and conference tourists that look like convention and conference tourists. And so I make it a point to look even more like a well healed, well dressed conventioneer... It pays like you wouldn't believe.
    Playing micro and low stakes (1/2$) yes. People are very bad. And stereotype not always that far from reality - yet has to be confirmed.
    No need to be a genius playing low stakes.
    And you can fool them - if even needed.... - by wearing a different outfit to your playstyle just because, like you, they are full of stereotypes instead of poker skills.

    If you don't observe Villain for their tendencies, frequencies, sizing, playstyle, etc., and prefer stuck in your stereotypes like it's a dogma, you will never move up in stakes.

    If you doubt, go try a shot a 2/5 or 5/10 to feel the difference.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 218 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Binding the mindset of daredevil drug dealer with anyone wearing a tattoo is a generalization which is both offensive and leads to very wrong assumptions (here for poker playstyle)..

    Guess how much I care about offending anyone with a generalization THAT I ALONE USE.

    Feel free to throw away whatever information you find too difficult to assimilate.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,704 -
    Let's keep it civil.

    As an added data point, when I checked in at the WSOP line at MGM in 2006 the clerk remarked "geez, all you poker players smoke!" I now figure that anyone under 40 smoking cigarettes likely has LAGgy tendencies. These correlations are imperfect but real.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,827 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13
    Gee this degenerated remarkably fast.

    Both points of view are right, and wrong. There are no "obvious" tendencies other than actual poker decisions. Having said that, ignoring information right in front of us is foolish. Take such observations for what they're worth, which is non-zero. It is silly to make important decisions based on superficial observations over a short period of time. It's also silly to ignore your life experience.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 777 ✭✭✭
    Best thread ever. Don't stop

    Would also like to hear analysis of:

    Guys in hawaiian shirts
    large breasted women
    guys over 300lbs wearing shirts 3 sizes too small
    anyone with missing teeth
    players covered in dirt or paint head to toe

    It's real out there
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,194 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1.25 pot is nicely in line with an overpolarization strategy, and the one i prefer. I think it is good because it works well with certain spots while not simply forcing too many folds or killing late street play. However, i have seen solves where even larger equilibriums are preferred, although off hand i'm not remembering when exactly.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,827 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sully wrote: »
    Guys in hawaiian shirts

    guys over 300lbs wearing shirts 3 sizes too small

    300 lb guys wearing Hawaiian shirts specifically 3 sizes too small are losers who complain about being the unluckiest player in the world.

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,704 -
    I probably shouldn't go down this path, but any Vegas-based poker player worth their salt will make significant poker strategy adjustments against large-breasted women during the last week of January.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,827 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Late December through late January. I'm a September baby, what can I say?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,704 -
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Late December through late January. I'm a September baby, what can I say?

    Was actually thinking of a convention that is traditionally held at the end of January.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,827 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • BigDaddyBigDaddy Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    I’m glad this thread got hijacked. This stereotype issue needs to be discussed. We got “tattooed Hispanic” here, and I saw “loose Asian guy” in another thread, and I just joined a month ago. Forget the PC aspect; you would be making a poker mistake if you draw too many conclusions from appearance.
    I fall into a category that some might want to make assumptions about, and I’m aware of it and I love it. I don’t even speak much at the table, lest I let it slip that I have an MBA in Finance. Don’t want you thinking I can handle “all dem numbers”.
    Not that guy!
    Yea, that guy.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 218 ✭✭
    BigDaddy wrote: »
    Forget the PC aspect; you would be making a poker mistake if you draw too many conclusions from appearance.

    Can't agree.

    When someone new sits, you have clues but they are almost all stereotypical generalizations. It's basically all you have and if you refuse to use them you're throwing information away.

    I love checking their watch. 3 hours off at 3AM? They're likely tired. Is there a money back guarantee? Hell no.

    Look at their jewelry.

    Look at their player card. A platinum card is usually a sick pit gambler here on the Strip. How do you think they will play poker?

    This is all so obvious and easy ... unless you've been indoctrinated to believe there's some PC crime in doing so.
  • NTD12NTD12 Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    I played with a tattooed guy the other day. He deposited roughly $2k in 4 hours. The tattoo thing is real people...take note and take a payday.
    Nobody hear knows me but that was sarcasm[/spoiler}
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,704 -
    BigDaddy wrote: »
    I’m glad this thread got hijacked. This stereotype issue needs to be discussed. We got “tattooed Hispanic” here, and I saw “loose Asian guy” in another thread, and I just joined a month ago. Forget the PC aspect; you would be making a poker mistake if you draw too many conclusions from appearance.
    I fall into a category that some might want to make assumptions about, and I’m aware of it and I love it. I don’t even speak much at the table, lest I let it slip that I have an MBA in Finance. Don’t want you thinking I can handle “all dem numbers”.
    Not that guy!
    Yea, that guy.

    Some great points here. I'd certainly agree that drawing too many appearance-based conclusions is worse (and more costly) than drawing none at all. And it's also true that being aware of how you are perceived can be very valuable, either as a result of stereotypes or because you've decided to put on a blazer and a convention lanyard as a ruse. I've personally found that the fact someone arrives at the table with a pool cue case is typically a more reliable indicator of playing tendencies than ethnic/racial generalizations.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,827 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15
    BigDaddy wrote: »
    you would be making a poker mistake if you draw too many conclusions from appearance.

    "Too" much of anything is not good - that's basically a tautology. It's what the word "too" means. It's also true you'd be making a poker mistake if you drew too few conclusions - by definition.

    Let's take appearance out of it and stick strictly to actions. If a new player sat down and raised his first 2 hands in EP, would you draw too many conclusions from it? (If you draw too many, then you're making a mistake, obviously.) Maybe he got dealt aces twice in a row. So we're not going to start isolating and going crazy against him yet.

    It's really no different. You have observations, you have data points. If this thread started by saying villain raised his first 2 hands at the table, we wouldn't be having this discussion. By the same token, if OP said he tried to isolate the guy because he's obviously a maniac, we'd be telling him he's wrong about that. That doesn't mean those actions shouldn't be stored away for future reference. After all, you can't tell that someone has raised 5 times in a row if you missed the first 2.

    If someone's life experience tells them something, they should give that however much credit it deserves until more information comes along. Sometimes 4 or 5 observations can add up to something meaningful.

  • BigDaddyBigDaddy Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    That sinks it!
    I'm running right out today and get some removable face tattoos and clean up!!!!!
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,827 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, there's nothing wrong with letting other players draw conclusions too quickly! Like with false tells, just be careful you don't assume too much about that either.....
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 218 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Well, there's nothing wrong with letting other players draw conclusions too quickly! Like with false tells, just be careful you don't assume too much about that either.....

    There's something more lasting about first impressions. When your opponents are led well astray by your initial appearance they will have an internal battle matching that impression to likely opposite play.

    You want them confused. They aren't confused by your backpack, hoodie and ear buds.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,194 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You guys should really focus on playing better and let the tattoos stretch out where they may.

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