AK Shove on the Post flop

AceBalaAceBala Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
This is a home game 10 handed. Later part of the game, Where everyone has played around 6 hrs and we have 2 more hours to wrap up. People are playing super tight are very aggressive.

Blind $1 - $2

SB -$1
BB -$2
Hero AcKd (125 in chips) - Raise to $12
Other Fold
Button ( Chip leader, May be $400+) - Calls
BB ( $100)- Calls

POT $37

Flop
QsJh5d

BB - Checks
Hero - Raise to $32
Button - Re Raise to $75
BB- Calls

Hero - Shoves all in ( Considering there were some fold equity among the opponent). I believe this is a horrible move by me. I think I was card dry for a long time and frustrated with some game didn't go my way.I was pretty sure as soon as Button called he has aTwo Pair+ hands and he showed a Set with 5s.I lost all my chips.

What do you think about my CBET on the post-flop here? Good Bet, Good Sizing.

Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 479 ✭✭✭
    By my count your shove is for $38 more and it brings the total pot size to $300. So V needs just 11.2% equity to continue profitably here since BB called the $75 as well. So you have just about 0 fold equity in this spot.

    On the flop though, why a nearly pot sized bet with a gutter in a MW spot? Certainly we can rep the overpairs, sets, and Qx and Jx holdings, but would you bet nearly pot with any made hand here if the table was indeed playing tight? I think the large flop bet also reduces any FE you'll have later simply because you're playing $125 effective and after your c-bet have over a third of your stack in the middle already. You won't have enough behind to push opponents off many of their made hands on later streets.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    Shoving flop is a terrible idea which can only lead to disaster. There is no world where a shove can make you win this pot or be +EV in the long run.

    You've to understand that you're c-betting pot against 2 tight players (who call a - rather large - preflop open bet). They have tight ranges, and your c-bet bet sizing means a polarized c-bet range - having either a bluff or a monster (JJ, QQ). Hands like AA don't even belong here (could be c-bet, but not for that price).
    AK is not the best to put here: you might have some SDV and, mostly, you're blocking the hands you want V to fold (AQ, KQ, AJ). And you've only 4 outs. For these reason, I don't think I'd c-bet that large with AK here, but would more pick T9s or KTs with bckd FD.

    When BU raises and BB calls, both say they are ready to fight your shown strong range. There is absolutely 0 FE by re-raising here.
    Maybe if BU raises and BB fold, or BU fold and BB c-r, then you could see a 3bet/shove with a very small polarized range. Yet a raise and (worst) c-r against a pot size c-bet shows a tremendous strength. Do we have FE? No. Is AK the right combo to polarize ? I don't think so.

    All together, I like how you look for aggressive line - which usually are the best ones - but you fail to recognize the strength of your opponents and your (largely) overestimate your FE.
    Hence to improve your game:
    - Understand how the dynamic put your AK at the same value as two napkins
    - Villains have a tight range. How do their ranges hit the board? I think pretty fairly; meaning they might not have that many combo to fold (aka we shall not have much FE).

    Also don't think you shall not c-bet AK. You can, but not for this price.
  • AceBalaAceBala Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Shoving flop is a terrible idea which can only lead to disaster. There is no world where a shove can make you win this pot or be +EV in the long run.

    You've to understand that you're c-betting pot against 2 tight players (who call a - rather large - preflop open bet). They have tight ranges, and your c-bet bet sizing means a polarized c-bet range - having either a bluff or a monster (JJ, QQ). Hands like AA don't even belong here (could be c-bet, but not for that price).
    AK is not the best to put here: you might have some SDV and, mostly, you're blocking the hands you want V to fold (AQ, KQ, AJ). And you've only 4 outs. For these reason, I don't think I'd c-bet that large with AK here, but would more pick T9s or KTs with bckd FD.

    When BU raises and BB calls, both say they are ready to fight your shown strong range. There is absolutely 0 FE by re-raising here.
    Maybe if BU raises and BB fold, or BU fold and BB c-r, then you could see a 3bet/shove with a very small polarized range. Yet a raise and (worst) c-r against a pot size c-bet shows a tremendous strength. Do we have FE? No. Is AK the right combo to polarize ? I don't think so.

    All together, I like how you look for aggressive line - which usually are the best ones - but you fail to recognize the strength of your opponents and your (largely) overestimate your FE.
    Hence to improve your game:
    - Understand how the dynamic put your AK at the same value as two napkins
    - Villains have a tight range. How do their ranges hit the board? I think pretty fairly; meaning they might not have that many combo to fold (aka we shall not have much FE).

    Also don't think you shall not c-bet AK. You can, but not for this price.

    @Red Thanks for the analysis!! one question..You said shoving flop is always negative ev. I take that this is just not for this hand, in general shoving flop is bad.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    Shoving this flop in this situation is IMHO a bad mistake.

    Now in general: "Shoving" just means going all-in. Shoving 190$ into a 20$ pot isn't the same as 160$ in a 120$ pot. Shoving as flop 3bet isn't the same a c-bet shove. It depends too on (your range and) Villain's range: does he fold often? When he calls, with which hands / what is your equity against these ?
    Shoving isn't bad per se, it depends on the situation and your expectations based on all information you've gathered yet.
  • AceBalaAceBala Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
  • G14ClassifiedG14Classified Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    down bet flop $12 or vs two tight aggressive players I don't hate x/f at these stack depths on this board texture. If the cap is $200 or more and you can swing it, you should be topping off when ever you drop below $200. Playing 50-60 bb's you can't have many open/folds so I would open bigger to lower SPR and with a range that I'm not folding on most any flops.
  • CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 139 ✭✭
    A check/fold on the flop is probably the lowest variance line you can take here. With a gutter and no backdoor flush possibilities I think it’s fine to check this flop and see what V’s do - if the game is as tight as you say you’re likely drawing to only the T.

    AQ, AJ, JJ, QQ KQ, even 55 could be in V’s range (though you block the hands like AJ and KQ that might find a fold to a larger shove).

    For my tournament life I’m going x/f here and waiting for another spot

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