Flop raise with top 2 on draw heavy board.

CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
1/2 NL $200 effective stack

Hero literally has just sat down - first shuffle. UTG with KQcc and raises to $12. UTG+1, and +2 call. No info on either player (older man, and younger marine Vet)

Flop (36) KdQdJh.

Hero C-bets $25. UTG +1 raises to 75, UTG+2 calls.

Hero? We’re not folding here. For 3.5:1 do we call or jam on this board with $115ish behind

Results to come, would love to see what the consensus is.

Comments

  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    When you bet the flop what were you planning to do if raised?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    What hands do you target when betting? Which worst / better hands are going to give you action ?
  • CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    What hands do you target when betting? Which worst / better hands are going to give you action ?

    With 2 players behind who both didn’t 3-bet me I’m hoping to run into hands like Axs, JT, and although I have blockers hands like QJ, JK, etc.

    I think I get action with most flush draws and the Tx, Ax hands. Also of course the T9, AT combos, but raising UTG I’d hope I could get an early position T9 to fold.

    @Red based on your question are you suggesting that a check would be more appropriate here?

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    @CactusCards : preflop, yes. But what about on the flop?
    Do TX raises? How is your equity against a FD? Against AT/T9 ? Is KQ really that good in equity?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,815 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you're not folding, then what would be your reason for just calling?
  • CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    If you're not folding, then what would be your reason for just calling?

    Really couldn’t find one so I shoved and was shown the bad news. Lot of money in the pot with less than a pot sized bet behind with essentially 4 outs to win.

    UTG+1 Snapped with 9T, +2 actually called w/ A3o and hit a T to scoop it.

    @Red are you suggesting checking flop? You typed “pre”. Folding KQs UTG seems a little too snug - I’m opening that every time pre.

    Flop could’ve been played differently, I think there’s an argument for checking and c-betting but more towards checking top 2 on this board.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    Cbet which got you in this predicament aside :smile: my thoughts... When arriving at your decision point, you realize that at best you can only be slightly ahead. A shove here never gets a fold and is maybe break even at best (maybe much worse, haven’t done math).

    Could an option be to call and reevaluate turn? There is nearly half the deck to dodge... any diamond, A or T are terrible cards. J and 9 are pretty bad as well. If those cards come you can save your remaining stack. If turn bricks... well... you’re still in a tricky spot but at least your equity improves somewhat as well as you gain a sliver thin bit of FE.
  • CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    Paul_K wrote: »
    Cbet which got you in this predicament aside :smile: my thoughts... When arriving at your decision point, you realize that at best you can only be slightly ahead. A shove here never gets a fold and is maybe break even at best (maybe much worse, haven’t done math).

    Could an option be to call and reevaluate turn? There is nearly half the deck to dodge... any diamond, A or T are terrible cards. J and 9 are pretty bad as well. If those cards come you can save your remaining stack. If turn bricks... well... you’re still in a tricky spot but at least your equity improves somewhat as well as you gain a sliver thin bit of FE.

    C-bet was the fatal flaw for me on this one. I think that given the option a check/call would be the best move if the sizing was logical (25-35) from V in this spot. Would probably have bailed on the turn to larger bets with the two sticking around if it was apparent I’d be bad here.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    If you're not folding, then what would be your reason for just calling?

    Really couldn’t find one so I shoved and was shown the bad news. Lot of money in the pot with less than a pot sized bet behind with essentially 4 outs to win.

    UTG+1 Snapped with 9T, +2 actually called w/ A3o and hit a T to scoop it.

    @Red are you suggesting checking flop? You typed “pre”. Folding KQs UTG seems a little too snug - I’m opening that every time pre.

    Flop could’ve been played differently, I think there’s an argument for checking and c-betting but more towards checking top 2 on this board.

    (I wasn't addressing preflop. Maybe this got confusing :) )

    Checking on the flop is not out of the question. It really depends on how you think both V will react - aka do they rather raise or call ? With what kind of hands ?
    Considering you still have an OK hand and you're playing 1/3 - where players are going to be rather transparent - I can be on board for a c-bet. But this is a thin value c-bet.

    But once you got raise and the raise got called, how does your equity looks like? Sure, it's top 2P and look shiny, but in the fact, you are at best slightly ahead and at worst drawing to 4 outs. This because of the board texture too (which you didn't address in your analysis)

    KQ is probably the bottom of the c-bet range. If Villains - both - want action (raising, cold calling), then your hand is suddenly meh.
    Plus : a) you don't have the direct or indirect odds to get a turn K / Q and b) your hand block 2nd best QJ/KJ but you don't block nutted hands (AT, T9, nut FD).

    I think this is a rather clear bet/fold spot.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,815 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    (I wasn't addressing preflop. Maybe this got confusing :) )

    It might possibly have been when you said "preflop yes"......... :)

  • CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    @Red & @jeffnc I appreciate the well thought out analysis!

    In regards to board texture - this is one that could be hit very hard, but of course not have the winner decided on flop. . Trying to work through being more cognizant of textures and raising my awareness
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    Yes, you've range advantage. But you've to recognize that such boards are tough to bluff on - they will require 2 to 3 barrels. (There is a RCP Pro videos about these, by Ed Miller, if my memory is good)
    On such board and with H having RA, do V really raises with any worst hands than KQ ? That's why even if you've RA, your hand itself hasn't any equity advantage and shall be bet/fold.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,815 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 17
    Red wrote: »
    Yes, you've range advantage. But you've to recognize that such boards are tough to bluff on - they will require 2 to 3 barrels.

    Which probably isn't feasible anyway at this stack depth and pot size.

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