Spiked set on flush turn facing a bet

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 429 ✭✭✭
1/3 MGM National Harbor just before midnight on Friday evening.

Hero ($1560) dealt 2s 2c on the button. MP ($670) opens to $16. CO ($1000) calls. Hero calls as well, planning to set mine with such significant money behind to potentially win. BB ($200) also calls.

Flop ($65): Kh 8h 3d.

BB, MP and CO check to hero who elects to check back. This is the first spot about which I have a question. Should we bet the flop? I can have sets of 8s and 3s here and for kings K9s, KTs, KJ and KQ in my range at this point while only BB I think will have a king here. I would expect MP and CO to have bet a king at this point, but BB could certainly check his Kx holdings to the PFR, in my opinion.

My 22 holding, if it is indeed the best hand at this point, which is possible, certainly needs protection as any card besides a 2 is a bad card for me at this point. So any thoughts around a flop bet are certainly appreciated.

Turn ($65): 2h

So hero has now turned a set of 2s as the flush draw comes in. BB and MP check again. CO bets $35.

At this point, I'm confused as to whether a raise or a call is superior. After CO checks the flop, I do not believe he has a Kx holding from which I could get value on a raise. I certainly would get value from Ah holdings that do not have a made flush already; potentially even Qh holdings as well. But outside that, I cannot find a hand from which a raise generates value. I do want to charge Ah draws, of course, but I also want to give V a chance to bluff with these on the river when he misses.

Beyond that, if I raise, I think my range is lacking in bluffs. I might elect to raise Ah holdings but given my lack of a 3 bet pre, I do not have that many left in my range. AhJx, AhTx is probably it, just a few combos.

So my range when I raise is going to be extremely value heavy with made flushes and 22. Does it make more sense to call here and trying to keep bluffs in Vs range? V is certainly capable of firing again on a bluff at the river.

Any and all thoughts on flop and turn appreciated!

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,090 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16
    My 22 holding, if it is indeed the best hand at this point, which is possible, certainly needs protection as any card besides a 2 is a bad card for me at this point. So any thoughts around a flop bet are certainly appreciated.
    You could stab the flop if Villains are weak bad players. Otherwise, it can turn into an expensive bluff.
    Yes, PFR didn't c-bet and CO didn't stab. Doesn't mean they will easily fold. Maybe they have a hand they could call but don't feel strong enough to bet. Could be a bad KX, a mid PP, 8X, or a FD. All these combos have tremendous equity against 22.
    Plus don't forget that PFR could plan a check-raise.

    Yes, 22 don't have much SDV and can be easily outdrawn. Yet you've many better hands to bluff with, which have even less/same SDV but better equity expectation, like 9h7h or 87s. I'd prefer to stab with such hands.

    Also this board is rather disconnected, so it's hard for you to have many strong value hands (it would be different on like K87hhc instead of K82hhc). Meaning a stab will be either polarized (at little frequency) or merged - but then you are looking for thin value.
    Yet 22 don't fall in neither of these categories.

    So for me, 22 is a check/fold. We set-mined, we didn't hit, that's it.
    So hero has now turned a set of 2s as the flush draw comes in. BB and MP check again. CO bets $35.

    At this point, I'm confused as to whether a raise or a call is superior.
    Only a solver will be able to give you a perfect solution.

    For me, I don't really see the point of raising. (Although you could, depending on how light CO could stab/continue. But I don't see that happening at 1/3.) You've a great hand to beat most of none flush CO value hands, but if you raise, you might be called only by better hands (better sets and flushes). And raising allows CO to fold all his bluffs like a naked AhXx/QhXx.

    Folding is out of the question too. Set is way too strong in your distribution to be fold, and you don't block any thin value or bluff CO could fire with.

    So definitely, I'm calling the turn and intent to call any non :heart: river or stab for thin value if CO checks river (except if CO is tight passive).
  • March422March422 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    Why not raise here on the turn small to $75 for protection? There are still players behind who can call the $35. This also could allow us to get away cheaper if v does have flush by checking behind on any river that doesnt improve us to fh or quads. If co comes over the top i think its an easy fold. This may be a stretch but by not raising we are capping our range saying we dont have a flush so v could bomb us off our hand on the river.

    No info really on CO from OP but could v have Ah x with gssd or a pair? Its reasonable that he would bet these with everyone seeming like they have given up on this pot.

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