Spiked set on flush turn facing a bet

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 473 ✭✭✭
1/3 MGM National Harbor just before midnight on Friday evening.

Hero ($1560) dealt 2s 2c on the button. MP ($670) opens to $16. CO ($1000) calls. Hero calls as well, planning to set mine with such significant money behind to potentially win. BB ($200) also calls.

Flop ($65): Kh 8h 3d.

BB, MP and CO check to hero who elects to check back. This is the first spot about which I have a question. Should we bet the flop? I can have sets of 8s and 3s here and for kings K9s, KTs, KJ and KQ in my range at this point while only BB I think will have a king here. I would expect MP and CO to have bet a king at this point, but BB could certainly check his Kx holdings to the PFR, in my opinion.

My 22 holding, if it is indeed the best hand at this point, which is possible, certainly needs protection as any card besides a 2 is a bad card for me at this point. So any thoughts around a flop bet are certainly appreciated.

Turn ($65): 2h

So hero has now turned a set of 2s as the flush draw comes in. BB and MP check again. CO bets $35.

At this point, I'm confused as to whether a raise or a call is superior. After CO checks the flop, I do not believe he has a Kx holding from which I could get value on a raise. I certainly would get value from Ah holdings that do not have a made flush already; potentially even Qh holdings as well. But outside that, I cannot find a hand from which a raise generates value. I do want to charge Ah draws, of course, but I also want to give V a chance to bluff with these on the river when he misses.

Beyond that, if I raise, I think my range is lacking in bluffs. I might elect to raise Ah holdings but given my lack of a 3 bet pre, I do not have that many left in my range. AhJx, AhTx is probably it, just a few combos.

So my range when I raise is going to be extremely value heavy with made flushes and 22. Does it make more sense to call here and trying to keep bluffs in Vs range? V is certainly capable of firing again on a bluff at the river.

Any and all thoughts on flop and turn appreciated!

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16
    My 22 holding, if it is indeed the best hand at this point, which is possible, certainly needs protection as any card besides a 2 is a bad card for me at this point. So any thoughts around a flop bet are certainly appreciated.
    You could stab the flop if Villains are weak bad players. Otherwise, it can turn into an expensive bluff.
    Yes, PFR didn't c-bet and CO didn't stab. Doesn't mean they will easily fold. Maybe they have a hand they could call but don't feel strong enough to bet. Could be a bad KX, a mid PP, 8X, or a FD. All these combos have tremendous equity against 22.
    Plus don't forget that PFR could plan a check-raise.

    Yes, 22 don't have much SDV and can be easily outdrawn. Yet you've many better hands to bluff with, which have even less/same SDV but better equity expectation, like 9h7h or 87s. I'd prefer to stab with such hands.

    Also this board is rather disconnected, so it's hard for you to have many strong value hands (it would be different on like K87hhc instead of K82hhc). Meaning a stab will be either polarized (at little frequency) or merged - but then you are looking for thin value.
    Yet 22 don't fall in neither of these categories.

    So for me, 22 is a check/fold. We set-mined, we didn't hit, that's it.
    So hero has now turned a set of 2s as the flush draw comes in. BB and MP check again. CO bets $35.

    At this point, I'm confused as to whether a raise or a call is superior.
    Only a solver will be able to give you a perfect solution.

    For me, I don't really see the point of raising. (Although you could, depending on how light CO could stab/continue. But I don't see that happening at 1/3.) You've a great hand to beat most of none flush CO value hands, but if you raise, you might be called only by better hands (better sets and flushes). And raising allows CO to fold all his bluffs like a naked AhXx/QhXx.

    Folding is out of the question too. Set is way too strong in your distribution to be fold, and you don't block any thin value or bluff CO could fire with.

    So definitely, I'm calling the turn and intent to call any non :heart: river or stab for thin value if CO checks river (except if CO is tight passive).
  • March422March422 Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    Why not raise here on the turn small to $75 for protection? There are still players behind who can call the $35. This also could allow us to get away cheaper if v does have flush by checking behind on any river that doesnt improve us to fh or quads. If co comes over the top i think its an easy fold. This may be a stretch but by not raising we are capping our range saying we dont have a flush so v could bomb us off our hand on the river.

    No info really on CO from OP but could v have Ah x with gssd or a pair? Its reasonable that he would bet these with everyone seeming like they have given up on this pot.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    I agree that a call is best here. Kinda gross spot with these stack depths.
    I’m in c/c mode to the river with this hand.

    I’d hate to raise small, get called by CO and deal with a :heart or 🧱 river. At this depth a good player can c/r river with Ah on a lot of rivers as well as lead made flushes.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    Stabbing at this flop HU may have merit.

    Stabbing at this flop multiway is burning money. This is never, never, ever getting 3 folds and we have zero backdoor equity.
  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 850 ✭✭✭✭
    @Jordan Power I wouldn't make it a huge habit of betting your 22 when checked to you, simply put, what hand are you not betting if you decide to bet this hand?

    As for the turn, you def have incentives to raise this hand to deny other players equity that are involved in the hand. Given you have position you always have the ability to check back the river if it does come a heart since most times Villain will check it to you.

    On the turn we will be basically targeting, Ah, Kx and some pocket pairs and as well 8x that may or may not call but ure biggest focus is getting rid of the other players in order to properly recoup most of ure equity. You also have the bonus of improving 20% of the time just incase u are behind. You could continue betting river on a blank pending how wide villain plays and calls.
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  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    @Jordan Power I wouldn't make it a huge habit of betting your 22 when checked to you, simply put, what hand are you not betting if you decide to bet this hand?

    As for the turn, you def have incentives to raise this hand to deny other players equity that are involved in the hand. Given you have position you always have the ability to check back the river if it does come a heart since most times Villain will check it to you.

    On the turn we will be basically targeting, Ah, Kx and some pocket pairs and as well 8x that may or may not call but ure biggest focus is getting rid of the other players in order to properly recoup most of ure equity. You also have the bonus of improving 20% of the time just incase u are behind. You could continue betting river on a blank pending how wide villain plays and calls.

    I think it will work in aggro games or on 5/10$ + (where people player lighter combos). But low stakes players tend to be value heavy.
    • MP doesn't have much because missed betting flop and turn. I don't expect any action from him. At best he has AhXx
    • BB's range is loose and his flop check didn't cap him. Because he checks turn, he doesn't have a flush. Yet he might have sometimes 2P/set, scared of the flush.
    • CO called pre and checks flop. This means he shall not have many KX, if any, and only marginal ones (otherwise we can expect a flop stab) ; at best KxTh? Also except if CO is aggro - which doesn't fit the few preflop and flop action have - , I don't think he would naturally bet turn light like with a MP or with a naked nut FD (maybe few times, but not that frequently) - and even rarer considering it's still MW and the flush completes, which can easily be in BU/BB ranges. (Also I think these will bet/fold almost always if Hero raises.)

    So IMHO raising turn only makes worst hands fold and better (mostly made flushes) continue.
    Yes, raising allows to deny equity. But I don't think we want to deny equity here; on the contrary, we want to build the pot. And raising here seems only resulting in folds or facing a flush.
    Also Hero is in position, so calling isn't bad as we can handle the river IP. I'd be more prone to lead or c-r if OOP (SB/BB).
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 473 ✭✭✭
    Certainly agree @RCP Coach - Fausto Valdez that betting the flop would be less than ideal. Wanted to bring it up only because I dismissed it out of hand as a viable option live during this hand.

    However, on the turn I agree with @Red. I don't think a raise is ideal here. We do increase the chance we deny equity to draws, certainly, by raising; however, I don't think any worse hands except Ahx combos are going to be calling me here and I will be folding out all of Vs bluffs.

    Would I not be incentivized to keep his range full of bluffs by calling the turn rather than forcing him to continue only with Ahx draws and made flushes?

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