Fish adventures 3.How do you play this hand?

sumoswimsumoswim Red Chipper Posts: 148 ✭✭
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 115.3 BB
SB: 126.5 BB (VPIP: 13.43, PFR: 10.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 70)
BB: 60.9 BB (VPIP: 22.64, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 162)
UTG: 60.5 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 18.10, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 214)
MP: 130.3 BB (VPIP: 30.43, PFR: 24.64, 3Bet Preflop: 24.00, Hands: 73)
CO: 138.1 BB (VPIP: 19.44, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 109)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: J:club:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 3:club: 8:club: 3:diamond:
SB bets 9 BB, Hero raises to 105.3 BB and is all-in, SB calls 96.3 BB

Turn: (231.6 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond:

River: (231.6 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:

SB wins 219.1 BB

Comments

  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    With the small sample size, I would approximate he 3bets ~11% from the SB, maybe as low as 8% and as high as 15%. So something like AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-AJs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs.

    I do expect him to cbet a lot on this board, possibly his entire range. I think he would call your shove with overpairs+. He folds >70% of his range and your equity is at least 34% (vs QQ-AA, 88, A3), so this is clearly a profitable +EV shove.

    Now if he was only cbetting like 65% of the time, say overpairs +, bdfd, and any J,Q,K high, the shove would be marginal because you're barely getting the folds that you need.

    Still I believe it's likely he usually cbets close range on this board. But I think the EV of calling or raising it to something like 21-25 BB would be significantly higher. I believe he would fold the same hands he folds to shove if you just raise his cbet to like ~ 2.5x.

    I wonder whether you're shoving because you're uncomfortable playing flush draws when they miss on the turn ? I kind of used to do that...

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