Tough spot QQ: Does villain have nuts or bluf?

BubbleboyBubbleboy Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
Im breaking my balls over this one for a while so i hope you guys can help me. The player seems solid over 300 hands:
VPIP 21
PFR 17
AF 2
3B 8

My thoughts:
When he checkraises me from the SB he either has a made hand like A5s, 56s a set, maybe a small overpair, or he is semibluffing with a flushdraw (maybe Ad xd). I dont see him calling preflop with alot of 5x hands other than A5. Because he also could have made-hands i was in an awkward situation and my hand turned into an showdown value hand imo. On the river i beat nothing i think so i folded.

What line do you take here?

PokerStars Zoom Hand #201644016196: Hold'em No Limit (€0.10/€0.25) - 2019/06/23 1:11:57 CET [2019/06/22 19:11:57 ET]

Table 'Atria' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: barbaazul122 (€49.81 in chips)
Seat 2: InTtRvr (€73.19 in chips)
Seat 3: emilien38090 (€75.48 in chips)
Seat 4: YuriZ1990 (€58.53 in chips)
Seat 5: Kanchaka2010 (€13.12 in chips)
Seat 6: Kukune72 (€32.74 in chips)
InTtRvr: posts small blind €0.10
emilien38090: posts big blind €0.25

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to YuriZ1990 :Qc :Qh
YuriZ1990: raises €0.50 to €0.75
Kanchaka2010: folds
Kukune72: folds
barbaazul122: calls €0.75
InTtRvr: calls €0.65
emilien38090: folds

*** FLOP *** :4D: :2D: :3H:
InTtRvr: checks
YuriZ1990: bets €1.75
barbaazul122: folds
InTtRvr: raises €3.88 to €5.63
YuriZ1990: calls €3.88

*** TURN *** :4D: :2D: :3H: :3C:
InTtRvr: bets €8.50
YuriZ1990: calls €8.50

*** RIVER *** :4D: :2d :3h :3c :6D:
InTtRvr: bets €13
YuriZ1990: folds

Uncalled bet (€13) returned to InTtRvr
InTtRvr collected €29.22 from pot
InTtRvr: doesn't show hand

Comments

  • wescrowescro Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Tough spot, but quite an interesting hand. Because of the button call, V was getting decent odds to see a flop, even from the SB, so V's range PF was somewhat wider than if this had been a heads up call. I put into Flopzilla, assuming V defends at 30% of his range here, with the top 4-6% removed, assuming V will 3-bet with those most of the time. So V's continuing range PF looks roughly something like this: 22-TT, A3s-AJ2, A8o-AJo, etc for about 280 combos. Your ranges may differ, but using that as a starting point, you were slightly ahead of V's standard continuation ranges on both the flop and turn. The 6d was literally the worst river for you. Given standard continuation ranges, you still had 35% equity, and V's river size gave you right odds to call given that equity. However...given that V X/R OOP on the flop and then led the turn, it's likely that V's range was even tighter though. From a GTO perspective, it looks like a call even though you are behind. But given the tendencies of most micro-stakes players, (ie, most folks at this level are not X/R and then throwing out 2 barrels into a wet board OOP on a bluff) I'm not seeing a compelling reason to call this when we're pretty much always behind.

    Perhaps a better line would be to not to continue on the turn. I think V's turn lead was a better spot to shut down here.
  • andreicosandreicos Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    I think you played it well. I don't think SB would continue as wide as 30% pre-flop, but more like 20%, however I imagine it will depend on how much the BB squeezes.

    This is not a great flop for you as the callers can have sets and even a straight with 56s. I imagine V would raise flop with 65, 44, 33, 22 (12 combos before otf) for value, and balance it with ~12 bluff combos of mainly flush draws such as Ax, 76dd, however he can occasionally have a few oesd or even gutshots, like any 76s. QQ has an equity of ~30-35% here, depending on what exactly he bluffs, and how often he does it.

    Ott I imagine he continues with pretty much everything and your equity is ~40% and I think calling is the best option.

    River is indeed a terrible card for you, flush draws got there, any 5x (75s, A5s) got there too. Folding looks good to me.

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