Missed value? Should I have even gone to showdown?

yesitsmattharrisyesitsmattharris Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
Live 1/1 game

Villain: UTG has us covered
Hero: SB £175
BB: £100

Preflop:
Hero gets dealt JdTd
UTG raises to 6BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls, BB calls.

I decided to call behind here as Villain was opening fairly wide regardless of position. He was definitely one of the better players at the table, but I had noticed that he was calling down on the lighter side. Haven't seen him show up with any bluffs, but have seen some incredibly thin 'value' bets at showdown. Also the table was pretty passive and there was very little chance of a 3bet from the BB as he was pretty nitty.

Flop (18BB): 6d 6c Ts
Hero checks
BB checks
Villain bets 16BB
Hero calls
BB folds
  • I called behind here as I noted Villain took stabs at paired boards often, and we have TP and a backdoor flush draw. He could have a lot of overcards in his range, as well as JJ+ and sets, but not too often so I'm feeling pretty good here so far.
  • Plan is to check/call any 6 or brick as we have SDV, any T, and any diamond as we have equity with a runner-runner flush.

Turn (50BB): 6d 6c Ts Ad
Hero checks
Villain bets 26BB
Hero calls
  • I tanked for a while on this. On the one hand, the Ad gives us the 3rd nut flush draw and makes it very unlikely that our opponent has a flush draw himself (KdQd being the only combo I can see, and MAYBE 9d8d). However, the board is paired and Villain is very likely ahead of us. The Ad hits his range well, so he could well have turned a two-pair here and from previous action I'd seen, he would not be folding it to a raise.
  • Was racking my brain trying to figure out what we would be betting or check/raising here. I guess I would be check/raising 66, and TT (if I was to call preflop with TT), and KdQd, KdJd.
  • At this point, the plan on the river is to call down with any diamond, check/raise the Kd, Qd, or a T and check/fold pretty much everything else.
  • The problem with betting or check/raising with JT here is if he raises back we're put in a difficult spot. And if he calls, the pot size is getting on the larger side. I'm not folding as we could easily get a call from worse on the river if we hit our flush. Pot odds aren't good, but the implied odds make up for it.

River (102BB): 6d 6c Ts Ad 3d
Hero checks
Villain checks

When we hit our flush, I check with the intention of calling a bet, but he checks back.

I wanted to raise the turn or bet out on the river as he will likely call down with worse. If I had the Qk or Kd I would have done this, but with the Jd, it seemed too risky. In hindsight, he was very unlikely to have a better flush as the only combo is KdQd, but he would have likely bet on the larger side on the turn, so I was probably safe here.

The main reason I was so passive was due to the paired board.

Did I miss out on value here? Should I have check/folded or check/raised the turn? Should I have lead out on the river, as my flush is pretty hidden?

Cheers

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    I wanted to raise the turn or bet out on the river as he will likely call down with worse. If I had the Qk or Kd I would have done this, but with the Jd, it seemed too risky.
    What's the difference here between having Kd, Qd or Jd ? Why and how are these FD different ?
  • yesitsmattharrisyesitsmattharris Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Thanks for replying Red.

    Well at the time, I didn't want to face a raise against a potentially worse flush as well as potential boats. But after the hand ended I realised how unlikely Villain is to have a flush here, so it shouldn't make a difference.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    How many better flushes can Villain have?
    How many boat does V have?
    How many other combos V could bet flop/turn ?
  • yesitsmattharrisyesitsmattharris Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    edited June 30
    1 combo of better flushes (KdQd)
    1 combo of quads (66)
    6 combos of boats (33 wouldn't bet flop and turn)
    79 combos of other hands (JJ+ / AT+ / KT / QT / JT / maybe KQ)

    Okay after getting those numbers from Equilab, it makes sense for me to raise the turn or bet out on the river. Couldn't get these numbers whilst I was at the table!

    Thanks for the questions. Anything else I can take from this?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    If you raise, how do you expect Villain to react with all these hands : fold, call or re-raise ? (which ones for each case)
  • yesitsmattharrisyesitsmattharris Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    I'd generally expect Villain to:

    Fold
    JT / QT / KT / KQ

    Call
    JJ-KK / AT

    Re-raise
    66 / TT / KdQd

    So if he was to re-raise here, I'm drawing dead and would fold. If he calls here, I'm good as long as a diamond comes on the turn, but otherwise I'm in check/fold mode. By betting, I'm getting him to fold out 7 combos of hands that currently chop or beat us.

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