$600 venetian epic stack day 2 Good bluff spot?

Stomper13Stomper13 Red Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
edited July 1 in Tournament Poker Hands
Sorry in advance for this long post.
as title says day 2 of the $600 venetian epic stack tourney.
227 players remain 207 get paid.

blinds are 6k/12/12k BB ante 9 handed
Folds to hero In the LJ with 350k and :Qs :Ts .
Hero raises to 30k.
Folds to villain in the BB who calls has 600k to start hand.
Pot=78k
Flop comes :Ac :Jc :6s
Villain donk leads 50k

the villain of this hand has been extremely aggressive he was opening roughly 75% of the time when folded to him. He would 3 bet later positions about 20-25% of the time. and he would cbet the flop about 75-80%. He was the chip leader at the table with only one other person close to his stack size. He was abusing the fact we were close to the bubble.

I feel like my image was pretty nitty as I hadn't played many hands. I had caught about an hour stretch of cards that were unplayable I didn't even see a high card till this hand.

I put Villains BB calling range something like this
22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o
Which is 578 combos.

My range here
22+,A7s+,A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
314 combo
this flop hits my range more than his so....

Should I raise in this spot to say 150-120k or maybe even a jam.
if I raise to 150-120k my bluff has to work about 50 percent here.
to be honest him leading into had me confused.

Comments

  • CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    Raising here seems like a bad move when you can float and see if the turn brings a backdoor flush draw or you realize your straight equity.

    If you raise here you’re essentially committing your stack if called and there’s so much in BB range that could’ve gotten a piece here.

    I’d call and evaluate turn, especially with your positional advantage.
  • BubbleboyBubbleboy Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    Personally i dont like calling here. 50k is 1/7th of your stacksize, and what will you do on the turn in the likely event that you dont hit your straight.

    It may be weak but i think i would just fold here. Raising means committing your stack with very little equity close to the bubble. Doesnt seem very profitable. Against this aggressive player, im sure there will be better spots.
  • Stomper13Stomper13 Red Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
    Raising here seems like a bad move when you can float and see if the turn brings a backdoor flush draw or you realize your straight equity.

    No offense intended but I think calling is the worst option here.
    If we call and he fires the turn we have to fold unless we hit a king so why just hand over 50k more. Second our straight equity is limited to just 3 outs. If a :Kc and he shoves we are gonna hate life.
    Also I don't wanna call and let him set the price to realize his flush equity of some of his weak flush draws.
    I think.its either a raise or a fold.
    I guess the question is does he fold.enough in this spot. He has to fold more than 50 percent with a pot size raise.
  • BubbleboyBubbleboy Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    edited July 2
    If you do raise, i think it has to be a shove. Let's figure out his donkbet range assuming he is not completely bluffing:
    - 66 (JJ and AA will probably 3bet pre)
    - Flushdraws (i think most players would prefer to check/raise in this spot)
    - 2 pair hands
    - Ax hands
    - Maybe Jx hands

    If he has a flushdraw it is likely he also has a gutshot. He will not fold those hands. AJ and A6 obviously wont fold either. Maybe you can get him out if he has Ax with x being 9 or lower, assuming an aggro player 3 bets AK and AQ pre. The Jx are probably folding also.

    I don't have the equity calculating program, but im sure someone could do the math here.

    Still just 'by feel' i would still prefer a fold here. I wouldnt risk my stack close to the bubble with air. I would feel silly if i get snapcalled with A6 or something.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,640 -
    The meta problem here is that you're close to the bubble facing an opponent who is willing and able to abuse the table with a big stack. Against this fairly substantial bet I prefer a fold. Against a smaller lead I think floating has some merit.
    Moderation In Moderation

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