Late-Stage Tournament Bluff Opportunity?

CrodigglyCrodiggly SF Bay AreaRed Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
Online MTT, $10 buy-in, 21 places paid. Payouts don't get any good until top 5. We just broke the bubble and have 17 players on 2 tables.

Blinds 1k/2k, with 200 ante, my table is 8 handed.
My stack is ~46k, Villian has ~52k, both solidly middle of the pack, avg is probably 35k but most players are clustered in the 20k-60k range.

I am in the BB with :Qc:9c

UTG min-raises to 4k, folds to me. Pot is 8,600 and it costs me 2k to call.

I don't have much history with the UTG player as we joined this table after the bubble, but in these tournaments I'm always wary of EP limps and min-raises because people seem to raise bigger with marginal hands and limp/min-raise big hands hoping to trap. I generally think of this move as being a fairly polarized range of pairs QQ+, and low pairs 22-66, with high and low aces mixed in, AK, AQ, A2-A5, along with some SCs because the min-raise gets a lot of flop action. If anyone has a better heuristic range for this kind of situation, I'd love to hear it.

I call, pot is 10,600, flop comes :7s:6c:5d

I am pretty happy to see this flop. 2 overs plus the gut-shot and backdoor flush feels very strong. I'm expecting him to cbet 100% here and my plan was to check-raise semi-bluff. I checked, but his cbet was full pot, 10,200 and I froze.

If he bets 1/2 to 2/3 pot, I would be able to raise to ~20-25k and keep 20k behind, but now I feel like the semi-bluff loses most of it's FE unless it's an all-in.

I folded, but I am second-guessing the decision. Was my original plan reasonable? Should I have followed through even given the bigger bet? As I type out that range above I don't see him folding much (if I gave him the right range) so was this a bad bluffing opportunity to start with?


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