JJ vs Multiway Shove Fest

Shawn JShawn J Red Chipper Posts: 66 ✭✭
Live 10 handed $1-2 $550 effective. Hero has all involved players covered.

Hero UTG JJsh opens to $20, UTG2 (Tricky TAG $550) calls, MP3 (Fish $250) calls, BTN (Weak/Tight $100) Shoves. Hero calls, UTG2 hems and haws then shoves $530, MP3 shoves $230. Hero Folds

Pot odds: $100(Hero)+$550(UTG3)+$250(MP3)+$100(BTN)= $1000. $450 for Hero to call. $450/$1450 = 31%

I predicted I was ahead in this hand by a slight margin and most likely would be a flip between UTG2. I do have a slight edge. I chose not to take it. Should I have, even if its small? The stacks were deep and game was very soft. I chose to wait for a better spot. I would’ve had to wager my profits for the session, so I was also being results oriented. @splitsuit You have tons of spreadsheets available. Which one would be best to figure out my EV in this spot verses all opponents? Vs UTG2 alone? Could you provide examples. Thank you all for your feedback.

Villains Specific Hands (Hero, UTG2, MP3, BTN)
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Villains Ranges
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UTG2 Range Vs Hero Hand
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Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,125 -
    Since it's an all-in situation, using HoldEq as you have done works fine.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,090 ✭✭✭✭
    edited July 4
    You're probably giving a way too strong of a range to UTG2

    In such situation: buckle-up and call.
    Except if some are really passive (like almost never raising/3bet pre), you're ahead of the field. (But don't be sad when losing, you will lose most of the time; yet losing often doesn't mean it's -EV)
  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 398 ✭✭✭
    It looks like you are on the right track on how to do the work to compute if your situation is +EV or not. If you had nothing committed and had to call the full $550, you would only 25.1% equity in the main 4-way pot, and 50.1% equity against UTG2, and you appear to have both of those covered.

    In the fictitious situation where you had nothing committed and $550 to call, your EV may have been so slight and the variance to your bankroll so high, that it might be OK to pass on this +EV situation because of the roller coaster nature of gambling with a tiny edge. It may depend how deep your bankroll is to manage such swings.

    However in your case, you had $100 committed and only $450 to call. If the previous situation was barely break-even, then your EV now would be a strong (550/450) = +22% on your $450 call. Sure during the cloud of confusion during the game you couldn't estimate if you were +EV or -EV, but if you knew then what you know now, and still couldn't get it in here, you might be playing too deep!

    By the way, very good work on not posting the run-out, as it means nothing!

  • Shawn JShawn J Red Chipper Posts: 66 ✭✭
    @JoeOffsuit Thank you for taking the time for a thought out post. do you mind explaining how you came up with your given equities?

    These are the numbers I've come up with while doing my work. Please point out any errors you may see.

    Converting odds ratios to and from percentages by Wikipedia

    Odds are most commonly expressed as ratios, but converting them to percentages often make them easier to work with. The ratio has two numbers: the size of the pot and the cost of the call. To convert this ratio to the equivalent percentage, these two numbers are added together and the cost of the call is divided by this sum. For example, the pot is $30, and the cost of the call is $10. The pot odds in this situation are 30:10, or 3:1 when simplified. To get the percentage, 30 and 10 are added to get a sum of 40 and then 10 is divided by 40, giving 0.25, or 25%.

    To convert any percentage or fraction to the equivalent odds, the numerator is subtracted from the denominator and then this difference is divided by the numerator. For example, to convert 25%, or 1/4, 1 is subtracted from 4 to get 3 (or 25 from 100 to get 75) and then 3 is divided by 1 (or 75 by 25), giving 3, or 3:1.

    Ratio: Pot = $1000: Hero Call = $450; 1000:450 = 2.2:1 = 1/3.2 = 31% equity or
    Percentage: 1000 + 450 = 1450; 450/1450 = 31% equity

    - Hero Loses to UTG2 = -$550
    - Hero Loses vs MP3 but Wins vs UTG2 =
    MP3 wins 250 + 250 + 250 + 100 = 850 - (MP3 250 invested) = MP3 $600 Profit
    Hero Wins 1450 – 850 = 600 - (Hero 550 invested) = Hero $50 Profit
    - Hero loses vs BTN but Wins vs UTG2 =
    BTN wins 100 * 4 = 400 – (BTN 100 invested) = BTN $300 profit
    Hero wins 1050 – 400 = 1050 – (Hero 550 invested) = $500 Profit

    Hero EV on Preflop shove Call
    cifn16rfqo4o.png

    Now I can clearly see this was an Easy Call. Yes I'm bankrolled to make this call and I'd be ok if I lost. But, my thinking was I didn't want to risk losing, I didn't want to risk losing my profits. So, In the moment, I was playing scared money and being results oriented which I can now see and should have already know is the wrong way to be thinking. It's always about taking the most +EV situation!
    I felt in the moment that my pot odds were correct but I was more focused on dodging overcards on the runout.

    5pfs6f8gjzlt.png

    As you can see, per this CardPlayer Odds Chart, That there's a 76% chance of overcards coming on the runout vs my JJ. So my thinking in the moment that there was a high probability that I'd lose to any A, K or Q.

    I specifically put UTG2 on such a narrow strong call/shoving range because I have history with this player and seen this play a few times before.

    So, I suppose in future scenarios, this is a clear call, given my EV vs UTG2
  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 398 ✭✭✭
    Shawn J wrote: »
    @JoeOffsuit Thank you for taking the time for a thought out post. do you mind explaining how you came up with your given equities?

    I will try... The multi-way nature of the pot does complicate the issue, and I apologize if I jumped around with the math.

    First of all, if you were in a heads up pot, where you had nothing committed, then your opponent shoves for some amount, if you have less than a 50% chance of winning you should fold, and if you have more than a 50% chance of winning you should call for the same amount. That's how I came to 50.1%. Although with rake maybe a little less.

    However, if you already have money committed, and your opponent shoves, and you are at or near 50% equity, you have a much easier call, because you are getting much higher than 50% on your call.

    Similarly in a 3-way pot you would need 33.3% (because you get paid 2-1 if you win), and in a 4 way pot 25% (because you get paid 3-1)

    Now, the multi-way all in with different sizes does complicate things. If you had less than 25% in the 4-way main pot but more than 50% in the heads up pot, you might still be able to call. However, you have more than 25% in the 4-way main pot AND more than 50% in the heads up pot. This is a good call if you had to put it all in at once, and a better call if some if it is already committed.

    So I never solved for equities, I just observed that you were deep in the plus zone for calling!

    Clear as mud yet?
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 773 ✭✭✭
    Why didn't you re-raise to isolate BU?
    Plus there is possibly $40 of dead money
  • Shawn JShawn J Red Chipper Posts: 66 ✭✭
    edited July 6
    @JoeOffsuit thanks for the explanation. Makes sense!

    @Sully the thought of midraising to $200 came to mind as an isolation but I disregarded that. I thought there was a chance that utg2 and mp3 would fold, but they now had pot 9 odds, so it's clear now that was unlikely. If they called, I figured my hand to be stronger then theirs, so I was willing to play for a side pot. But I can see now my thinking at that time wasn't rational because I would've been oop with a vulnerable hand post flop. So, it makes sense now that I should've iso raised the BTN shove, or if I called as I did then I should've called the shoves from utg2 and mp3. Either way, I realize I played the hand poorly. Lesson to learn from!

    Thanks for the feedback

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