Better hand with worse odds?

loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
Probably easier to watch this hand here, but explanation is below and question is at end.

Here is a link to the hand:
http://mysmp.me/h_nre

So I was in a pot (hand replay above) where I took a shot at the flop with :Qc:Th in the small blind because of the flow of the table (and it was cheap...I may have folded to a re-raise).

0.10/0.25 game
EP first-in with 0.25 (stack size irrelevant for this question)
CU calls 0.25 (stack size irrelevant for this question)
I'm in SB and call 0.15 (leaving me with $18.38)
BB checks (leaving him with $25)

I have it in my notes BB absolutely loves an Ace, and the only thing he loves more than that is a flush draw. He's a solid player from what I can tell.

The flop comes :Ac:Td:Qd

I've got 2 pair with my :Qc:Th ...but would like to get more money in the pot than the $1 in it. So I check hoping someone will bet. My plan is to call, see what happens, and make my move on the Turn or River.

BB bets $1.33 after my check. I'm sure he has an Ace, but don't peg him for 2 pair since he's so likely to play any suited Ace, and even though he's a bit tricky, he probably would have reraised any Ace-Broadway preflop.

EP and CU fold.

I decide he thinks his one Ace is going to be good enough, and since I just called in the SB, I don't think he believes I have anything that beats him.

So I reraise to $2.66, thinking he'll call with his good Ace. BUT he 3bets me to $4.80.

I think I've got him beat so I go all in, half hoping he'll fold and half hoping he'll call. He calls, and turns over :Ad:3d

Turn comes :7s . River comes :5h .

Obviously I won the hand, but that's not why I posted this. So let's get to the meat of the matter.

Here's the part I have a question about: According to the odds on the replay I had, his Ace-high-flush with 2 diamonds on the flop was a 51% favorite versus my 2-pair of QT. It then dropped to 36% on the Turn, and 0% on the River.

So even though I had him beat if the hand stopped right there, and even if we could see the cards face up, would I be -EV to put someone all-in with a situation like this if I knew with certainty they would call? And is it the right move to call when you're beat in his situation (which might be an easier answer)?

What I'm hoping to learn out of this is if there is a guideline I can use in the future to call or bet when I have an Ace-high flush draw vs what I think is 3 of a kind, 2 pair, or a straight.





Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 530 ✭✭✭
    You're focusing on just his hand and not his range. If you KNEW with certainty he had A3dd, you can figure out off table whether this is a profitable shoving assuming V is not folding. I think there's even a spreadsheet on here somewhere but doing the math longhand makes it easier to learn IMO.

    But you're almost never going to know someone's exact holding.

    However, his range is going to have a lot of other draws without a pair that won't be a 51% favorite to win the hand. So what you need to consider is how wide V is going to stick money his money in on this flop when he is behind.

    Also, you note that your plan was to check hoping someone would bet and call and go from there.

    But then you go ahead and raise. Why did you change your plan? And if V is never going to fold Ax or is willing to stick his money in on a draw, why not go bigger? Why the min-raise?

    We give V amazing odds to call and try to spike a second pair or a diamond. Any non Q or T is going to give V 2 extra outs to the river. Let's say its the 3h. Well he can still now spike the 3c or the 3s (as well as 3d) to make a better two pair. Won't happen that often but remember that he's going to pick up outs a ton of the time on the turn in this situation with Ax.

    So if we are raising for value, why not go bigger and get V to put in more money? How do we feel about our hand if we min raise and the turn is a :XD:

    Are we check folding now? Or are we going to call a bet and then end up folding to a river jam. If V is going to let you play for stacks, and you're ahead of his range with which he would play for stacks, why not raise bigger and get more money in? I realize you got it all in and won and that's great but I think a lot of the time you'll get flatted here and then have some sub-optimal runouts that make it difficult to know how to proceed. My two cents.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    loki75 wrote: »
    So even though I had him beat if the hand stopped right there, and even if we could see the cards face up, would I be -EV to put someone all-in with a situation like this if I knew with certainty they would call?
    When you calculate your EV, you've to take the pot (dead money) in account.

    There is also a difference between being +EV and the variance of your play.

    If you look on youtube and on RCP, you will find all further info you need.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,070 -
    I might suggest download these spreadsheets and looking at this spot with the All-In EV Spreadsheet from both points of view (your POV with QT and villain's POV with A3). As @Red pointed out, dead money is a massive factor =)
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
    📘 Start the Preflop & Math Poker Workbook today.
  • loki75loki75 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    But then you go ahead and raise. Why did you change your plan? And if V is never going to fold Ax or is willing to stick his money in on a draw, why not go bigger? Why the min-raise?

    We give V amazing odds to call and try to spike a second pair or a diamond. Any non Q or T is going to give V 2 extra outs to the river. Let's say its the 3h. Well he can still now spike the 3c or the 3s (as well as 3d) to make a better two pair. Won't happen that often but remember that he's going to pick up outs a ton of the time on the turn in this situation with Ax.

    So if we are raising for value, why not go bigger and get V to put in more money? How do we feel about our hand if we min raise and the turn is a :XD:

    To answer the question about the small raise, I recently watched a video criticizing people for betting too big where only better hands will call...and combined that with the Core teaching that the value of your hand is unlocked at Showdown.

    So I started trying to implement a get-to-showdown strategy to get more money in the pot. Yes, if the diamond had come I probably would have folded to a bet or just called, reducing aggression (not that I showed much), figuring I gave it a shot at getting more money in and this time the cards foiled my plan in smaller pot.

    Maybe that's not the best way to play, but switching to a trapping style of play has been working really well for me the last few days.

    I'm still learning and appreciate the advice. I will try to take it into account and adjust my play so I'm not drawn out on in the future.
  • Peter SchaldemosePeter Schaldemose Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    I know this is an old hand, but I'm rehearsing my thought process and analysis method using The Splitsheets and Equilab, so bear with me =) This is a looong "comment"...

    My assumption prior to Villain's (V's) overbet on the flop is as follows (including equities):


    Board: Q:diamond:T:diamond:A:club:
           Equity     Win     Tie
    SB     73.81%  72.17%   1.64% { QcTh }
    BB     26.19%  24.55%   1.64% { 66-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o }


    I would have raised or folded preflop as SB, probably raised, since the EP and CO limped and showed weakness, unless it's a limpfest. In that case, I would raise big, like 12-15 big blinds, and I might get the BB to fold too.

    Since V overbets to 1,33 pot, it polarizes him, so he either has a hand or not. With two behind him, and a possible slowplay from SB (Hero), it would be dangerous to bluff, so I would assume, that V hit the board, but not superhard, since he is trying to win the pot outright by trying to deny the equity from the three others (even if he doesn't know the concept...). If he wanted to build a pot, he should have made a smaller bet, as in halfpot to 2/3 pot.

    Assumed range for the overbet and the equities:


    Board: Q:diamond:T:diamond:A:club:
           Equity     Win     Tie
    SB     59.10%  57.31%   1.79% { QcTh }
    BB     40.90%  39.11%   1.79% { KdQd, KcQc, AdJd, AcJc, KdJd, KcJc, QdJd, QcJc, AdTd, AcTc, KdTd, KcTc, QdTd, QcTc, JdTd, JcTc, Ad9d, Ac9c, Qd9d, Qc9c, Ad8d, Ac8c, Ad7d, Ac7c, Ad6d, Ac6c, Ad5d, Ac5c, Ad4d, Ac4c, Ad3d, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ac2c, AQo-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


    On the flop you have almost 60% equity against this V range, so I agree with your check/raise, but it should be a lot bigger to build the pot. You have a great hand, so not many hands are ahead. Many drawing hands would still call a bigger checkraise. Remember, even if you make V fold more top pair hands and the weaker draws, you are still ahead a lot of the time. You can't just take V's actual hand and run the equities, because you can only put him on a range.

    Even with this tighter V range, you are still ahead with 52% equity:


    Board: Q:diamond:T:diamond:A:club:
           Equity     Win     Tie
    SB     52.01%  49.68%   2.33% { QcTh }
    BB     47.99%  45.66%   2.33% { KdQd, KcQc, AdJd, AcJc, KdJd, KcJc, QdJd, QcJc, AdTd, AcTc, KdTd, KcTc, QdTd, QcTc, Ad9d, Ac9c, Ad8d, Ac8c, Ad7d, Ac7c, Ad6d, Ac6c, Ad5d, Ac5c, Ad4d, Ac4c, Ad3d, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ac2c, AQo-ATo, A5o-A2o, KJo+, QTo+ }


    I disagree with the notion, that the stack sizes of the EP and CO do not matter, since we cannot look into the possible Stack to Pot ratio (SPR) situations preflop/flop (e.g. if EP is shortstacking, would I really recommend raising QTo here in the SB ?), but with the info given, the SPR is very high at 18 between V and Hero, a dream SPR for a drawing hand.

    The min-raising leaves you money on the table and gives V too good potodds to call. I think, I would have valuebet 8-10$ considering that I'm not afraid to play for stacks here (there are not many better hands in V's range). I want to lower the SPR and pressure V, but not give him too good a price by shoving straight away.

    With a check/raise to 10$, V would get 1,2:1 potodds needing 45% equity to call. With a shove on the flop from Hero, the EV would be too good for him not to gamble, and fewer of his worse hands would continue, probably.

    A realistic shoving range for Hero is:


    Board: Q:diamond:T:diamond:A:club:
           Equity     Win     Tie
    SB     59.38%  57.44%   1.94% { TT, AcQc, KdQd, AcJc, KdJd, QdJd, AcTc, KdTd, QdTd, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AQo-ATo, KJo, QTo }
    BB     40.62%  38.68%   1.94% { Ad3d }


    That gives V 41% equity.

    As played, calling Hero's shove gives V an EV= +1$ with 41% equity. With 5% more it would be +3$.

    Let's say V would call a 10$ check/raise against the same Hero range, giving him 41% equity, the EV of calling would only be -0,7$, making it a minus EV call for V, much worse than calling the shove.

    As V min. 3bets you, it is clear that he doesn't know how to size a bet either, if he really wants you to fold. Now, if Hero 4bets to 8$, V would get EV= +2,7$ on a call.

    As mentioned above, the shove gives V an EV= +1$, so at this point, the shove is the better choice, but still a minus EV situation for Hero, whereas a check/raise is plus EV.
  • FrankDFFrankDF Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    my opinion is that the min raise on the flop was not a good sizing, your giving too many draws a good price and not getting enough value. you cant expect everybody to come over the top of you there..I like 3-5x better. the vill wont have AA to much since they didn't raise pre and you block their AT with your T so I don't mind the shove too much but

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file