River Play on Flush board

CrodigglyCrodiggly SF Bay AreaRed Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
Live 1-1-2 NL game at my local card room.

Hero is in MP with :Kd:8d , two limpers in front. Hero limps, limps around to BB, check. 7 ways. Pot 7BB

Flop :Jd:9d:4d - checks to hero who bets 5BB, 2 callers, first caller is newish to the table, 100BB effective. Other V likes draws

Turn (22BB), :Ah - I lead for 15BB, new-V calls, 2nd guy folds

River (52BB), did not pair the board and was not a diamond.

Hero checks, hoping to induce a bluff from a missed flush, or a bet from a lower flush. I'm calling anything. V bets 3BB?!?

Hero? My first instinct was to raise to a realistic value bet and expect to get called by a worse flush, but his underbet is so strange that I wasn't sure what it meant. Would someone with the nut flush ever bet that small?
Hero calls, V shows :Qd:3d

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,160 ✭✭✭✭
    What bluff? The only relevant bluff would be AdXx, but because of the turn he has SDV so not gonna bet.
    You've let value on the table.

    (But also, don't limp)
  • CrodigglyCrodiggly SF Bay AreaRed Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    What bluff? The only relevant bluff would be AdXx, but because of the turn he has SDV so not gonna bet.
    You've let value on the table.

    (But also, don't limp)

    I understand the logic behind "don't limp" and I do it sparingly, but this seems like the perfect candidate hand to overlimp. My justification goes like this, but please help me see the error of my ways if I'm totally off base:

    If I raise with 2 limpers, I'd like to size up to ~8BB to have a chance to get heads up or steal (and even then, might go 3-4 way), which is way too much on a marginal hand like K8s in MP. Meanwhile, there are no aggressive players behind me so the chances of me getting raised off the hand are tiny. And in a game like this, I have huge implied odds when I hit a hand, as the table was incredibly splashy (the literal next hand saw a player stack off with 6s on a QJ9 flop).

    If there is ever a time to limp, this has to be it?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,160 ✭✭✭✭
    You don't want to play their game. You want them to play your game (and give you chips). In your game, you play aggressive ; limping/calling isn't aggressive.

    Now yes, there are some situations where limping could be a thing. Yet we shall do it with a reason and with a proper strategy.
    I could understand you reasons - yet expecting no raise when you're MP might be a bit optimistic - ok ; but they are only situational.
    But why this hand, why K8s ? You can't made it into a straight, your TP KX will often be behind and your TP 8x will very often face overcard(s). Which hand do you want to hit for them to then pay you off ?
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    Limping in this spot is fine imo. Isolating once there have been more than one limper in front of you requires an EP opening range. Over limping after multiple people have limped in front allows you to play more hands profitably.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 234 ✭✭
    I think opponent tendencies play a huge part in deciding whether to limp or raise here,

    what ranges do you expect from EP limps in this game?

    Are opps. overfolding? overcalling? Is there a pain threshold that can be reasonably reached?

    While its true a hand like K8s can have RIO against EP ranges, it can also have IO against EP ranges if the limps are not deceptive.

    Most EP limps are hands that can withstand a raise, so with that said is there merit in raising here?

    And if we do limp, are the implied odds great enough to risk lighting a bb on fire?

    To do that we need to calculate our implied odds:

    Profit = (% of time you make eff. nuts) X (amount won) - (% time you dont hit) X (amount lost)

    So basically you need your opponents accurately ranged, and a program like flopzilla which will give you stats on how often you hit/miss.

    Then its just plug and play from there.

    But as played, you gave your opp. exactly what he wanted with a cheap showdown

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,160 ✭✭✭✭
    Just limping behind with any junk-ish hand because first Villain has a loose limping range isn't a strategy. And isn't +EV.
    Focus on good aggressive play or you will never move up.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    This hand just isn't going to be profitable when played from this position or in this way. You're ignoring the foundations of winning poker and are simply gambling to hit a flop.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 234 ✭✭
    While K-9o is horrible against players who do not play K-8, it is great against those who play K-2.

    One small excerpt from Jonathan Littles Mastering Small Stakes No Limit Hold Em

    There is definitely a strategy that can involve limping with K8s from MP, but again, opp. tendencies will define/allow that strategy.

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