Thin value on river

CrodigglyCrodiggly SF Bay AreaRed Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
NL 1-1-2

V in lowjack is an action player - straddles at every opportunity and has played >60% of hands (n = ~20)

Button straddles to $4, folds to lowjack, who min-raises to $8, hero in HJ has :As :Td and calls. Button calls.

Flop ($24): :Ks :Tc :6h - checks around
Turn :Kd : lowjack bets $5, hero calls, button folds
River: :9s lowjack checks, hero?

Comments

  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    A clear value bet.
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    edited July 15
    Very borderline imo. You may get called by a max of 16 combos that you beat (QT and JT). You lose to 12 combos of QQ and JJ. If you think that you get called by all QT and all JT, then you can go for thin value.

    I honestly don't know if you can even completely discount villain having a King. With QJ getting there in the river, he may be scared to bet trips. Again, very borderline imo.
  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 844 ✭✭✭✭
    Clear bet, if ure opponent is playing more than 60% of the time and continues with those in some form of aggression post he will have an abundance of hands by the river especially after he checks back. Simply see the amount of combos that could exist given the line compared to the hands you beat that will take the same line. Youll see u beat an overwhelming amount
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  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    Clear bet, if ure opponent is playing more than 60% of the time and continues with those in some form of aggression post he will have an abundance of hands by the river especially after he checks back. Simply see the amount of combos that could exist given the line compared to the hands you beat that will take the same line. Youll see u beat an overwhelming amount

    Isn't this logic severely flawed? We don't care about the hands that make it to the river that villain will fold, because against those betting and checking have the same EV. We care about what we beat when called. In order to target calls from enough of his range in which villain calls, you have to make a tiny bet, which would open the door to villain bluff raising.

    Again, I see this spot as marginal. Possibly slightly positive EV if hero plays and sizes it perfectly each time this spot comes up.
  • CrodigglyCrodiggly SF Bay AreaRed Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    osirus0830 wrote: »
    Very borderline imo. You may get called by a max of 16 combos that you beat (QT and JT). You lose to 12 combos of QQ and JJ. If you think that you get called by all QT and all JT, then you can go for thin value.

    I honestly don't know if you can even completely discount villain having a King. With QJ getting there in the river, he may be scared to bet trips. Again, very borderline imo.

    I think there are a lot more weak Ts in his range - a 60% open range could include something as weak as T3s+, T7o+. He could even call off with a 9 that just improved on the river.

    In the game, I checked and showed my hand, he mucked and said he had "a weaker ten"
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    Crodiggly wrote: »
    osirus0830 wrote: »
    Very borderline imo. You may get called by a max of 16 combos that you beat (QT and JT). You lose to 12 combos of QQ and JJ. If you think that you get called by all QT and all JT, then you can go for thin value.

    I honestly don't know if you can even completely discount villain having a King. With QJ getting there in the river, he may be scared to bet trips. Again, very borderline imo.

    I think there are a lot more weak Ts in his range - a 60% open range could include something as weak as T3s+, T7o+. He could even call off with a 9 that just improved on the river.

    In the game, I checked and showed my hand, he mucked and said he had "a weaker ten"

    There are a lot of weak tens in his range. Again, how many of those weak tens does he call with? If he calls with something as weak as T7, how low do you have to size to get a call with a holding that weak? If you do bet really small, is he or other villains in your player pool capable of reading the small sizing as weakness and check raise jam as a bluff?
  • March422March422 Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    I would 3b this, esp vs this villain to $30 and expect him to call worse aces broadways and pps and maybe some trash. ATo doesn't play well multi way and we are sure to be oop vs btn all be it with a super wide range. Also we are opening ourselves up to get squeezed here after a weak raise and a weak looking call. Why not isolate villain and give ourselves an extra shot at picking up the pot pf.

    As played we should be polarized on the river so betting mid pair goes against that? What about min raising the turn and checking back/ folding to river bets or raises on the turn
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    osirus0830 wrote: »
    Again, I see this spot as marginal. Possibly slightly positive EV if hero plays and sizes it perfectly each time this spot comes up.
    Marginal spots is where good players make money. Well handling light spots makes the difference between the field and the strong players
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    If you don't value bet AT here then you only bet trips or better. Everyone should fold when you bet.
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    edited July 16
    eugeniusjr wrote: »
    If you don't value bet AT here then you only bet trips or better. Everyone should fold when you bet.

    If he bets all AT combos, villain should only call with pairs higher than T, trips, or better. If he only bets trips or better, hero should only call with trips or better. Essentially you're arguing that in order to get value from 12 combos when we have trips or better that we should value bet AT. Villain is likely to value bet some percentage of his JJ and QQ so that 12 is probably closer to 6 combos. That's one approach, the other is to ensure that hero has the proper ratio of bluffs.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    When thin value betting there are fewer bluffs, but yes they should be there. Which are the best ones here? I don't see anything.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Against this player type, a 3bet pre is best IMO. BTN will call with entire range we call the minraise.
    With that in mind, both LJ and BTN are very wide so why not bet flop?

    As played this is a clear bet on the river.

    Against such a wide range we have to capitalize on second pair and better. Especially with our kicker.

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