Value vs Protection against a fish

MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 142 ✭✭
edited July 2019 in Online Poker Hands
There were 220 entrants in this MTT. In this hand we're in the money with 24 players remaining. I was down to about 15BB when the bubble burst with around 35 players getting paid. Since then I caught a couple hands, was playing well and accumulating chips. Villain was a terrible player. He was playing rags, calling all ins way behind and catching cards. Every time he raked a hand he would show his cards. Sometimes it was a bluff, sometimes it was a hand but it was easy to see his betting patterns and his cards were basically face up for anyone paying attention. Ill add my thought process during play inline with the hand. Ill add my post analysis afterwards.

$3 REBUY - $1500 GTD
2,000/4,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players

VILLAIN: 58.18 BB (VPIP: 54.90, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 52)
UTG+1: 25 BB
MP: 11.76 BB
Hero (MP+1): 41.14 BB
CO: 20.36 BB
BTN: 25.9 BB
SB: 12.87 BB
BB: 63.57 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has :QC::QS:
VILLAIN raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB
>I definitely want to 3bet here for value. Villain is a whale who will pay to see the flop and I want to discourage any action behind me to secure position and get heads up.

Flop : (20.3 BB, 2 players) :8C::5C::2C:
VILLAIN checks, Hero bets 10.15 BB, UTG calls 10.15 BB
>Villain had showed a few hands where he played any 2 suited cards and in those hands he either donked or bet/raised IP when he hit a flush. As mentioned his cards and play were face up so I felt very confident here. The only holdings im behind are 22, 55 and 88 but I believe villain would have donked any kind of hand. If Im behind I still have the flush draw and 2 queens for outs. Im still betting for value and want villain to continue. With an SPR of only 1.5 Im looking to get it all in. My only 2 options are to shove or bet <= 1/2 pot leaving enough left behind to bet again on the turn. I bet 1/2 pot with the intention of shoving the turn.

Turn : (40.6 BB, 2 players) :3S:
VILLAIN checks, Hero bets 21.89 BB, UTG calls 21.89 BB
>This puts a wheel on the board but the turn is basically a blank. I stick with my plan and shove.

River : (84.38 BB, 2 players) :JC:

Hero mucks :QC::QS: (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 71%, Flop 54%, Turn 68%)

VILLAIN shows :AC::6D: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 29%, Flop 46%, Turn 32%)

VILLAIN wins 84.38 BB

Hand Analysis
Preflop:
I think the 3x 3bet is the right play. I want action from villain and I dont want someone showing up with AA or KK behind if I were to just jam. A more optimal line would have been to 3bet 4/5x expecting villain to call any standardish sizings.

Flop:
I think this is the inflection point in the hand. The only way I win this pot is by shoving here and pushing villain off his hand. However Im really trying to get it all in, not push him off a weaker holding.

Turn:
Given the previous actions and SPR there is no other play here than to shove. Checking doesnt seem viable as I would be in a tough spot on the river. If I check the turn Im only doing it with the intention to call any river bet or check it down.

Conclusion:
1. A better PF 3bet sizing of 4/5x would have been a better line simply for value. It also would have inflated the flop pot size enough so I would have shoved then vs the turn.

2. A shove on the flop may have pushed him off the hand but in the moment I was trying to get it all in and not let him find the fold button. Theres also a very good chance he calls anyway.

3. The shove on the turn gives villain 3:1. In hindsight he has the odds to call even though it puts most of his stack at risk.

4. After review I feel like I unintentionally slow played these queens and allowed my opponent to catch up.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,316 ✭✭✭✭
    Not sure the flop cbet is a good idea?
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 142 ✭✭
    edited July 2019
    With an SPR of 1.5 and top pair or better shouldnt I be committed to getting it all in here? Seeing he was holding the :AC: makes that decision to check the flop pretty easy. But in play he could be holding anything like a weaker club or any card that paired the board based on what I had seen leading up to this hand. Once he entered preflop he wasnt folding, no matter how weak his hand was. And for that matter he wasnt folding post flop if he had any piece of the board.

    If I check the flop whats my plan on the turn? Check bet or are we just checking it down?

    If turn goes check check and he leads the river I know Im beat based on villains history and I can lay it down. However that cant be the optimal line right?


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