Flopping an overpair with 77

Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
My first hand history, so go easy on me :)
This is a $1/2 NL hand in a small Midwest poker room. It was very late, and we were down to playing 5-handed. It is a very passive table preflop with 3-bets being very nutted. 3 older guys (65+).

Villain is a young guy 2 seats to my right, and he has been very loose preflop and aggressive postflop. He has been winning lots of small pots from the old guys by barreling almost all flops and turns, rarely getting to showdown.

Preflop - Hero ($550) is UTG/HJ with :7h :7d . I open to $10, which is pretty standard in this game. Button ($400) calls, and Villain in the SB ($190) calls.

Flop ($30) - :5d :4s :3d - SB checks, Hero bets $12, Button folds, SB raises to $35, Hero calls.

Turn ($100) - :9c - SB goes all in for $145, about 1.5x the pot. What should hero do here?

My thoughts: First, I don't want to assume I was right to bet the flop, but I'm pretty sure that's the right play (feedback obviously welcome). Besides flopping a set, this is about as good a flop as I can hope for. With a bet I can get value from hands with a pair, anything with a 6 which is open-ended, and flush draws. I am occasionally behind, but even against most of those hands I have equity with my gutshot. By betting I can also deny equity to lots of hands with 2 random overcards (Q9, JT, 98, etc.).

Once I do decide to bet the flop, there is the question of sizing. I opted to go fairly small (40%), but in retrospect I think a bigger bet on such a connected board might be better. the hands mentioned about that are calling me are probably going to call $25 nearly as often as they call $12.

After getting to the turn and Villain jams, I consider several different factors. At this point, though, I'll cut this off and hear some feedback, then give my turn action and reasoning later. Thanks in advance everyone!

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    This looks like a pretty good combo counting exercise to me and it's going to hinge on whether V plays flush draws like this and how many we give him.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Building V's range from the point of the check raise, this is probably worst case scenario. I've made all of his non paired hands diamonds besides the diamonds on the board. I dont think he'd check a bigger over pair and risk letting opponents see a free card.

    tit89z3z90ke.png

    Being that V is a loose/aggressive player its possible he has other worse flush draw holdings like higher suited connectors and Kx. In this case hero has solid equity @ 65%.

    We can see here that 71% of V's holdings are draws, some with pairs which are beat by hero's 77.

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    The only hands that currently beat hero are sets and 2 pair which make up 29% of the range. Hard to say whether or not V would check these either.

    ozsifwb9x4y7.png
    Once I do decide to bet the flop, there is the question of sizing. I opted to go fairly small (40%), but in retrospect I think a bigger bet on such a connected board might be better. the hands mentioned about that are calling me are probably going to call $25 nearly as often as they call $12

    I think your bet sizing is fine. If V is on a draw, they are monster draws and I dont think a pot bet would push him off his hand.
    Turn ($100) - :9c - SB goes all in for $145, about 1.5x the pot. What should hero do here?

    At this point I dont think V has a 9, He could have x/r the flop with something like 9Ts, 89s but I doubt he'd make such a large over bet on the turn risking a fold from hero and losing value. The 9 is basically a blank and he could be shoving with 100% of his range. We see hero has 75% equity here which makes this an easy call. (Not so easy live but this is why we practice)

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  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 112 ✭✭
    Wow, this was great analysis. I look forward to reading the follow-up post.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    I actually made a mistake when moving from the flop to the turn. I did not include his made hands, oops. Instead of 75% equity hero has 58%. Its still a super profitable call @ +81 EV. Just not quite the slam dunk as in my original analysis.

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  • Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Thanks @MrFuss for the time you put into your responses. That was very helpful for me, as I'm a fairly new player. I have only logged a little over 200 hours of live play, and so this combination/equity work doesn't come very naturally to me yet (especially in real time at the table). My hope is that through these discussions and through my own off-table work I can get to the point that this kind of stuff becomes second nature.

    Basically here was my thought process in the moment:
    1) The 9 on the turn doesn't concern me, as I can't really think of any hands he would be check-raising on the flop with a 9. Maybe 99 specifically, but there are very few combos of that and he often wouldn't be raising that anyway.
    2) If he had a value hand, I don't think he would shove 1.5x pot for fear of missing value by letting me fold. This is more of a psychological/interpersonal point, but it was my "live read" if you want to call it that.
    3) by holding 77, I cut down on the straights he could have. This is a small factor, but leans me a bit more toward calling.
    4) even if I'm behind on the turn, I am almost never drawing dead.

    Ultimately I decided on a call, and the villian flipped over :Qd :6d for a flopped combo-draw. The river was the :8s , so my hand held and I scooped the pot.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Sounds like you had a great read. Before getting into the ranges my first reaction was that villain was shoving with a big draw. I should have added any combo to his range of a 6 with the diamond draw such as Kd6d, Qd6d. Really working on ranges and hand reading and this was very helpful.

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