When to get value after a great flop

Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
This is a $1/$3 hand played out of St. Louis. I had been at the table with the villain for 2-3 hours at this point, and he seemed pretty solid. I never saw him show down with anything weird, and he was doing pretty well in the game. In general, I would put him on pretty reasonable ranges in most spots. Maybe playing slightly more hands than he should, but nothing compared to most recreational $1/$3 players.

Villain ($550) opens to $15 UTG+2. HJ ($150) calls, CO ($200) calls, and hero ($725) calls on the button with :Qd :9d . SB folds and BB (100) calls, so we see a flop 5-handed.

Flop: $75 - :Ad :8d :4d
BB checks, Villain bets $30, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: $135 - :7c
Villain checks, hero bets $65, Villain x/r to $200, Hero calls.

River: $535 (Villain has $305 behind at this point) - :7s
Villain checks. Hero.....?

Here are my thoughts throughout the hand, then I'll follow up with some specific questions.
Preflop I felt like a call was pretty straightforward. The SB and BB were both really old guys who hadn't raised preflop with anything less than QQ, so I knew I was almost never getting squeezed in this spot. I briefly thought about 3-betting myself to thin the field a bit, but decided it was fine to call with a speculative hand getting a great price.

On the flop, obviously I'm thrilled with my hand. I went back and forth on whether a call or a raise would be better. I ultimately decided to call for 2 reasons. First, I wanted to give the BB a chance to stick around since he had a small stack. If he called the flop he might just feel committed to the pot and go with in on any turn. And secondly, I decided to call rather than raise because the villain UTG+2 is someone I viewed as a capable player. I didn't want to let him off the hook with an ace or shut down his semi-bluffs.

On the turn, after he checks to me I think it's a clear spot to bet. However, I was unsure what size to go with. I went about 1/2 pot to try to keep the villain involved with his 1-pair hands. After I got raised, though, this was the spot in the hand I was least sure about. I had a great stack size to just jam. However, I started thinking about his range, and here is what I came up with in real time:
I don't think he would x/r any set or 2-pair on a 3-diamond board, so I discounted all those. He either had also flopped a flush, or he had a semi-bluff like AxKd, AxJd, AxTd.
It's very possible that I over-narrowed his range, but again, those were my thoughts in the moment. Since I thought of him as a reasonable player and he opened in early position, the only flopped flushes I thought he could have were KJdd, KTdd, or JTdd. Since I am behind to 2/3 of his made flushes and want to give him a chance to bluff on most rivers, that's why I decided to call instead of jam.

I have a couple specific questions I wanted input on, but I'll wait and see some responses first. I look forward to hearing input from you all!

Comments

  • Ben GunnBen Gunn Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    I think I like a jam on the turn trying to get called by JTdd, KdQx, KdJx and if he has it KdTx. For the bare kings, he'd be getting 305 to win 1145 with (to him) 9 outs to make his flush. He doesnt quite have the odds, but I don't think it's unreasonable to offer villan a calling mistake.

    As played I probably just check back. The paired 7 shouldn't matter, but it does discourage a call with his one worse flush. Not sure what else can call that we're beating.
  • Cracked_Jacks11Cracked_Jacks11 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    I'm with you, Ben. On my drive home from the casino (and for several more days) I was thinking over that spot, and I think jamming the turn is better. There are a lot more hands worse than mine that would call than I think I considered at the time, mostly pair-plus-one-diamond type hands.
    If the worst flush you give him here is JdTd, then you should be folding this hand preflop.

    Just to make sure we're on the same page, JdTd is the best flush I give him on the turn after seeing all the action to that point. Because I have the Q and 9 and the 8 is on the board, there aren't really any medium suited connectors he could be playing. I don't think he would try to x/r with a small flush like 7d6d. Again, it's possible I overly narrowed his range on the turn, but that's the best I could estimate in the moment.
    With that clarified, do you still think I shouldn't be calling there preflop? The preflop action was one of the specific questions I wanted to dig into further, so this seems like a good opportunity to do that. Thanks!

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