Facing a 5bet with QQ preflop

SamiusMester

NL10 holdem online game. 6max. No stat. Average players. I'm (9,85$) opening 0,3 with QQ from CO. Shortstack BU (4,3$) calls. SB folds BB (13,35$) 3bets to 1,35. In this stakes lot of players Squeeze with wide range and I don't want to go 3way OUP with it, so I 4bet to 3,35$ and a lot of times I'm ahead. Rather win the pot now, than facing a flop A or K. BU folds, BB jams allin. Pot that I can win is 14,55$. The call is 6,5$.
Can I call that? Is he ever 5bet allin wider than KK+ AK? Should I 4bet less than that to make him fold? Can I go to the flop 3ways and be +EV with just a 3bet call?

CactusCards

Depends on your opponent, but very rarely is a 5 bet anything other than KK+

Jungle266

Off the top of my head...you need around 30% to break even (6/20). Let's assume that AK is in his shove range. There're 16 combos of AK and 12 combos total of AA and KK so just over half the time he has AK. So around half the time you are ahead, plus, a little less than half the time you have a chance (around a 20% chance I think) to bust AA, KK with a set. So half of half is 25% (perhaps it should be half of 60% not 50%...which is even better for you) plus your little bit of set hope and you have around 30%...so using 'table math' I think this is a call.

That said...I am usually suspicious of this kind of weirdness at the micros. Bluffing is more difficult than betting when you have a monster. I think there's less AI bluffing than people think in these spots.

So perhaps all things considered maybe this is a call but not necessarily a super +EV spot.

MrFuss

If villain 5bet range is only KK, AA this is a -EV call.



If you add AK to his range a call becomes profitable and of course as his range gets wider you gain EV.

SamiusMester wrote: »

Can I call that?

Sure

SamiusMester wrote: »

Is he ever 5bet allin wider than KK+ AK?

Maybe. Without any stats or other info on villain theres no way to tell. But at micros its certainly possible AQs, QQ, JJ are also in his shove range.

SamiusMester wrote: »

Should I 4bet less than that to make him fold?

Your 4bet is a good standard size. If theres any fold equity its probably only with a 4bet shove.

SamiusMester wrote: »

Can I go to the flop 3ways and be +EV with just a 3bet call?

Depends on their ranges. Also need to consider flop play. Say you call, BTN calls. Flop comes 8,5,3 rainbow. BB shoves. What do you do? If you plan to call then it's better to just 4bet shove pre.

SamiusMester wrote: »

In this stakes lot of players Squeeze with wide range and I don't want to go 3way OUP with it

I wouldnt want BTN to great great odds calling with Ax or good SC. I think a call is probably the worst play here. Folding is too nitty. So you can only raise. If BB has AA, KK well that sucks and you're probably going to get stacked unless you play passively and an A or K comes on the flop. But if BTN comes along and hits a middle board then you're still getting stacked.

If you're going to 4bet you should have already considered what you would do if BTN or BB shoves. If im 4betting QQ im probably doing so with the intent to call a shove. And in that case you may as well just shove and pick up some fold equity.

Dont be afraid to get stacked with a premium hand. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes you win. Make appropriate notes on your opponents and move on.

SamiusMester

Thanks everyone:)

Jungle266

Good points from MrFuss. I think it's relevant here to remember that this is one of those situations that is probably close to neutral EV (assuming villain's shove ranges are correct). You're going to be on the other end of this hand just as much as you are with the QQ so the 'sometimes you lose, sometimes you win' observation is a good one. Sure, getting this situation right consistently will lead to a profit but that's a tall order given you don't know much about villain's habits. There are easier spots where the most +EV play is more obvious (such as what to do regarding value bet sizing when you have the nuts or relative nuts)...where we can make money consistently without agonizing over a decision. 'Optimizing Ace King' is a good read that is very relevant to this type of hand.