1/2 live: Do I call big bet in this multiway pot for my A-high flush draw on paired board?

UnoMas777UnoMas777 Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
edited August 2 in Live Poker Hands
1/2 game at local casino. It's 2am and the table is full of guys who range between 40-65. I look like i'm in my twenties. 7-handed.

Hero has 450 behind him, and has been playing really tight.
Villain1 (UTG)is maybe in his 50s and his stack is about 250. Loose-passive.
Villain2 (UTG +2) has about 150. Older asian guy, who's been following an asian dealer around, moving to every table she's been dealing at. He's pretty loose.
Villain3 (CO) is mid-60s and has shown a couple bluffs already. He plays about 80 percent of his hands. His starting stack was 132.

Hero is in SB with :Ah :Jh .

Villain1 (UTG) limps.
Villain2 (UTG +2) limps.

Villain 3( CO) raises to 12.
BTN calls.

Hero (SB) calls.
V1, V2 call.

5 players to the flop (pot 60).

FLOP:
:4h :4s :9h

Hero donks 31.
V1, V2 calls.
V3 (original raiser) shoves 125 all-in. (Pot now 280)

Hero tanks, do I call 94 more with two people to act behind me on a paired board?

94/(60+(31*3)+94)=.34

Without knowing the other people's hold cards and knowing which of my outs are dirty. I have 6 over card outs and 9 outs to a flush. So roughly around 60 percent equity. But what kills me is that i'm not closing the action. V1 has more than 125, and should i worry about him just shoving all-in to, and now instead of calling 94 extra, i'm calling something like 194 to chase a flush on a paired board? Is this an easy fold?

Best Answer

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2 Accepted Answer
    UnoMas777 wrote: »
    Without knowing the other people's hold cards and knowing which of my outs are dirty. I have 6 over card outs and 9 outs to a flush. So roughly around 60 percent equity.
    lol, what ?

    idykau6biuah.png

    I don't know where you see your 60% equity ? Even against a PP lower than J (giving you possibly 15 outs), you're slightly behind HU (48.99% against 55)


    Now on this board, you have to call, no looking for a Hero fold (and esp. after you donked)
    Against QQ, as shown, you've 40% equity. Count 37% against 99+ and 32% against 99, QQ+. If a V holds two of your outs, you lose around 5%.
    Pot odds are 94/372 = 25% ( you forgot to include the 125$ shove in your calculation)

    So you're between barely +EV and nicely +EV.

    As played, I think you have to shove over the top.
    If V2 gives action, he will shove (which doesn't reopen the action) and if you call and V1 call, then remaining eff. will be around 120 for a main pot of ~500$ but no side pot - yet you've too good of odds to fold on turn for the main pot, except if turn is 9 or 4. Either you will be force to call, or you let V get off the hook if :HEART: turns and V is now scared. So it makes no sens to just call.


    Now the issue is that you are in an uncomfortable spot... but you put yourself in it !
    First you've many reason to squeeze preflop. Yes you've a decent hand, but you will play OOP. And calling will entitle limpers to call, shrinking your EV. I tend to favor more and more SB as only fold/3bet but without a calling range.
    Second donking is to be made when the card(s) favors your range. Do you have many 4x on SB ? And you face limpers with potential 4X and CO with an uncapped range and short stack, which will (should) shove with all of his overpairs (99+). Problem is that you donk with no reason (explain here at least), no plan and no having foresee what are Villains' ranges, how they could react to your donk and no knowing what to do when you get action.
    Also if you have a hand strong enough to donk this dry flop, then you've one strong enough to 3bet preflop.

    Uneasy spot, but it all comes from a key preflop mistake and a marginal flop mistake.

    Hope you didn't fold.

Answers

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,280 -
    I'll leave it to the cash game specialists to pick this one apart, but I'm pretty sure it's not an easy fold. It's true you could be dead to either V1 or V2, so ask yourself in addition to their nutted hands here what other combos they play like this. If it includes dominated flush draws and middling pocket pairs, you're at least calling.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • UnoMas777UnoMas777 Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Dang, i should have signed up in this forum a long time ago. Excellent advice.

    I'm still kind of new to counting outs in poker, but i thought that you multiplied your outs by 4 on the flop.

    Thanks, Red, for breaking down the math for me in this hand. I actually ended up talking myself to folded, but started beating myself up afterwards when i realized i should've called. And not just being result-oriented after seeing two more hearts come out on the turn and river.

    I donked the flop because i wanted to build a bigger pot in case it just got checked back.

    I'm sighing right now because i played the hand so bad.

    Thanks for the solid advice about either fold/3bet SB ranges. I think i should've done that. But i thought my hand played well multiway because if it being a suited ace.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,280 -
    UnoMas777 wrote: »
    Dang, i should have signed up in this forum a long time ago. Excellent advice.

    I'm still kind of new to counting outs in poker, but i thought that you multiplied your outs by 4 on the flop.

    The central issue is that you can hit one of your outs but not win the hand. One simple example is the one given by Red when hitting your J is no good against QQ. The more subtle issue is that you can make your flush but still lose to redraws.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,280 -
    Incidentally the only person who regularly claims to have played a perfect poker session is Phil Hellmuth and he's misinformed.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Incidentally the only person who regularly claims to have played a perfect poker session is Phil Hellmuth and he's misinformed.

    Honey, he called with QT
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Now the issue is that you are in an uncomfortable spot... but you put yourself in it !
    First you've many reason to squeeze preflop. Yes you've a decent hand, but you will play OOP. And calling will entitle limpers to call, shrinking your EV.

    The difference between improving and polishing a weak strategy is what you take away from feedback. This pointer from Red is what you need to absorb, not how to make more and more break-even gambles.

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