X/R On Paired Board w/ NFD & Overs

MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
edited August 6 in Tournament Poker Hands
In this hand we're far from the money. Villain seems somewhat loose based on previous actions, stats and notes although its a small sample.
[P] 3Bet All-In (Eff. Stacks: BB between 5 and 20) with {ATo} (1)
[P] 3Bet Blind vs Steal All-In (Eff. Stacks: BB >= 8) with {ATo} (1)
[P] Limp and called a raise with {88} (1)
[P] Opened all-in from the Button (Eff. Stacks: BB between 5 and 18) with {ATo} (1)

$2 - $2500 GTD - 250/500 - 80% Ante - NL - 8 players

Hero (CO): 30.62 BB
BB: 27.88 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 69)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has :QH: :AH:
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.3 BB, Hero 28.52 BB, Villain: 25.78BB) :JH: :9H: :JS:
BB checks, Hero bets 1.91 BB, BB calls 1.91 BB

Turn : (9.12 BB, Hero 26.62 BB, Villain 23.87 BB) :7D:
BB checks, Hero bets 3.28 BB, BB raises to 7.06 BB

Hero ?

We're getting just over 5:1 to see the river which gives us odds to draw to the flush but we could run into a full house. J9 & 99 is certainly in vililains range. Also Jx hands which block flush cards. The straight came for T8. However there's also lots of draws in Vs range which he could be bluffing on a scary board. This is a really tough spot. We're getting odds to call but ROI could be in play. Folding seems awfully nitty so I think my options are to call or raise.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    Raising is IMO suicidal and I don't like calling much.

    General observation: people who are quite good at poker seem to me to overcomplicate 30bb poker as found in mid-late stages of tournaments. If an opponent puts up resistance to aggression she usually has something. Your tournament life is too valuable to ditz around being clever. You don't need to be clever at 30bb.

    Also even at 30bb I don't like min-raising. It's very 2016. 2.25x is better here.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Also even at 30bb I don't like min-raising. It's very 2016. 2.25x is better here.
    Lol. My typical RFI sizing....
    70bb+ (2.5 - 3)
    35 - 70bb (2.25 - 2.5)
    <35 (2)
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 8
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    MrFuss wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Also even at 30bb I don't like min-raising. It's very 2016. 2.25x is better here.
    Lol. My typical RFI sizing....
    70bb+ (2.5 - 3)
    35 - 70bb (2.25 - 2.5)
    <35 (2)

    It's not wrong, obviously, I've just concluded that even shallow a bit above min puts more pressure on the BB, plus since I'm favorite to win the pot if they defend by calling I don't mind adding a little to the pot. Against aggressive 3-bettors min-raise has some merit.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    Min-raising is terrible preflop IMHO
    Villain has to call 1 to win 5.3 ; he has 1/6.3 = 15.87% pot odds. He is (should) basically calling with almost ATC except the worst off-suit combos. So you don't put any pressure on him.
    2.3 - 3 bb raise (depending on ranges, not really stack depth @MrFuss ) is more adequate.

    Same about your c-bet. C-betting 1.91$ into a 5.3$ pot gives V 20.94% pot odds. So if he has any piece of the board, he will continue. You have no fold equity and it can also impact the hand you rep (do you put 1.91 with :AC: :AD: ?)
    It's good that he continues with anything as you're still ahead of much of his range, and have great IO when he is on :HEART: FD and it completes, but you're still in the dark about his hand (how do you handle next streets) and you don't charge him enough for whatever hand he want to continue with.
    (Also such a small c-bet can trigger a check-raise just because of the sizing, in which case you've then either to jam over the top or turn your hand into a bluff catcher)
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Turn barrel here is not a good idea in general.

    I've been trying to double barrel bluff more often, especially with my good draws.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    MrFuss wrote: »
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Turn barrel here is not a good idea in general.

    I've been trying to double barrel bluff more often, especially with my good draws.

    Sure but that is just pressing your hand's equity rather than responding to what the board, grown worse, is telling you, range vs range. Plus your sizing does not work for this type of hand IP. All it does is reopen the betting.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    Red wrote: »
    (Also such a small c-bet can trigger a check-raise just because of the sizing, in which case you've then either to jam over the top or turn your hand into a bluff catcher)

    In tournaments that sizing isn't going to look particularly small. In fact it's pretty standard.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Also even at 30bb I don't like min-raising. It's very 2016. 2.25x is better here.
    Red wrote: »
    Min-raising is terrible preflop IMHO
    Villain has to call 1 to win 5.3 ; he has 1/6.3 = 15.87% pot odds. He is (should) basically calling with almost ATC except the worst off-suit combos. So you don't put any pressure on him.

    Im not convinced theres any more fold equity raising 2.5x vs 2x when the stacks get shorter and I prefer playing a smaller pot here. Most of the smaller stacks were min raising and getting folds so I was going with the flow. Plus Im not upset when BB continues with all his garbage against a strong range.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    2.3 - 3 bb raise (depending on ranges, not really stack depth @MrFuss ) is more adequate.
    Isnt this highly exploitable? Raise size based on the strength of my range would turn my cards face up. "He raised 3x he must have a strong range". "He min raised his range must be capped"
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    (Also such a small c-bet can trigger a check-raise just because of the sizing, in which case you've then either to jam over the top or turn your hand into a bluff catcher)
    Having so little time to make decisions when playing online my assesment in the moment was...

    1. My small bets could induce a bluff on a scary board.
    2. His range contained more semi-bluffs than nut hands.
    3. If V calls with a jack I still had some equity
    4. If V was not holding a jack a shove over his x/r had good fold equity.

    I did shove and V folded. Even though I won the pot I realized this may have been a terrbile play which is why I brought it to the forum. Now Im going to analyze range vs range and see what happens. I have not done any prior analysis.

    On the flop my 32% CO opening range has a strong advantage over the BBs wide calling range. He could be calling even wider given the pot odds. Its also possible he 3bets with AQ or TT,99 so i've weighted them 50%. Im ok with the bet here on the flop and as a general strategy, my understanding is that with a good equity advantage you should bet often and small, with a small or no equity advantage, bet rarely and larger. Maybe a 1/2 pot bet here would have been better but I also dont mind V getting priced into continuing with a bunch of garbage. And Im not sure the difference between 1/3 and 1/2 bets would affect my fold equity.

    7ary8d0jqsm7.png

    After V calls the flop with any reasonable hand or draw my equity advantage vanishes.

    lgyp6qac1y20.png

    The 7d favors Vs range and now Im slightly behind. This is the first obvious mistake in my line. If I bet I should bet big but I think a check would be the best play. However its worth noting that Im trying to fight for pots more often. Im playing micro stakes for a reason and that is to experiment and learn without any serious risk of loss. I don't hate betting here and I felt that if I checked behind on the turn it would be very hard to play well on any river card.

    ogjb50cptz1c.png

    When V x/r we see that 27% of his range is trips or better.

    wyiha1li4fb5.png

    And 51% of his range is various semi bluffs.

    s86slezy3icp.png

    In conclusion I think I played the hand pretty well although larger bet sizings could have been more optimal. My shove was for value if V calls with his draws. If V has trips or better he's obviously not folding. My shove could have functioned as a bluff if V folds a 9, 7, TT or other smaller pocket pairs.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    @MrFuss : maybe your Villain are inelastic, which is a mistake of them you can exploit.
    Yet for you, you should not bet the same range with a 2.0x or a 2.5x or a 2.8x or a 3x range. (As well a as a good Villain shall not react the same either).
    So I'd rather advise you to dig into these preflop sizing and ranges through theory (videos and books of pro) to improve your game, rat
    MrFuss wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    2.3 - 3 bb raise (depending on ranges, not really stack depth @MrFuss ) is more adequate.
    Isnt this highly exploitable? Raise size based on the strength of my range would turn my cards face up. "He raised 3x he must have a strong range". "He min raised his range must be capped"

    In short, "price=range"

    If you bet bigger, you need to win more often to be +EV (your pot odds are worst than with a small bet). Thus you need more equity. Thus you need a stronger range - which is per se a narrower range.
    The same is true as caller.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    @MrFuss : maybe your Villain are inelastic, which is a mistake of them you can exploit.
    Yet for you, you should not bet the same range with a 2.0x or a 2.5x or a 2.8x or a 3x range. (As well a as a good Villain shall not react the same either).
    So I'd rather advise you to dig into these preflop sizing and ranges through theory (videos and books of pro) to improve your game, rat
    MrFuss wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    2.3 - 3 bb raise (depending on ranges, not really stack depth @MrFuss ) is more adequate.
    Isnt this highly exploitable? Raise size based on the strength of my range would turn my cards face up. "He raised 3x he must have a strong range". "He min raised his range must be capped"

    In short, "price=range"

    If you bet bigger, you need to win more often to be +EV (your pot odds are worst than with a small bet). Thus you need more equity. Thus you need a stronger range - which is per se a narrower range.
    The same is true as caller.

    I understand this bet sizing principle when playing postflop but I thought when raising pre you should mostly use static RFI sizes unless you're trying to exploit a certain player type, especially inelastic players as you mentioned. Postflop you should always use dynamic bet sizes based on the odds you want to lay in regards to your range and the board. In this particualar hand I was min raising because the table had been folding too much to min raises.

    https://redchippoker.com/what-to-open-raise-preflop/
    3. To prevent astute opponents from gaining information about the strength of your hole cards, you should generally open to the same size. If you are playing against players that call too much and don’t pay attention to your raise sizes, you should raise as big as you can with value hands. If you are playing against players that fold too much and don’t pay attention to your raise sizes, you should min-raise with all of your weaker hands.

    4.To get the most folds for the least amount of money you should generally raise to three times the big blind. Game dynamics changes the fold equity relative to the ratio of big blinds risked. Many times, people won’t even consider folding unless you raise to four big blinds. Other times, a min-raise can be most effective.

    https://redchippoker.com/always-use-same-bet-size-podcast/
    OPEN-RAISING
    An open-raise is when the first person to enter the pot does so by raising. It is common to see players use a 2.5x size in tournaments, 2-4x in online cash games, and 4-7x in live cash games. These are typical static bet sizes, but not always the best.

    For instance, say you are in MP with AJ and there are weak players in the blinds. Sure, you could use your default open-raise size here, whatever that may happen to be. But personally, I would choose a slightly larger than normal size for two reasons:
    • I want one or both of the weak players to myself. The larger size is a disincentive to the players between myself and the button.
    • I have a huge edge in terms of cards, skill, and position and weaker players are more inelastic. Thus if they want to continue preflop they will not be dissuaded because I added a few extra big blinds to my open-raise size.
    • There are plenty of spots where you can open-raise smaller (e.g. when stealing to take advantage of players who fold too often with non-premiums) and larger (e.g. to target certain players). Do not automatically use the same size each time. Each spot is unique and there are plenty of ways to create more profitable spots with small changes to your sizing strategy.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 14
    MrFuss wrote: »
    https://redchippoker.com/what-to-open-raise-preflop/
    3. To prevent astute opponents from gaining information about the strength of your hole cards, you should generally open to the same size.

    If on the same position you always open the same amount, you don't give information about your cards. You but give information about your range (because of "range=price").

    Opening with 2x, 2.3x, 2.5x, 2.7x or 3x (*) should not be made with the same range. Yet if you always open 3x or always open 2x, you don't give info about your cards.

    (*) Note that this is more prevalent online than live, because you can do a lot of fine tuning with your bet sizing online (up to 0.01$) - allowing 2x, 2.3x, 2.5x, 2.7x or 3x open bet sizings - , where you can only bet a BB multiple in live games (so only 2x or 3x, nothing in-between).

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