Was this the wrong call?

KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
1$-2$ Americas Cardroom
I have $339 and Villan has $181
I had :Td :9d UTG. I raised to $6 folds to BB who raised it to $21 and I call.
Flop: :Ks :Jd :5d
Villan Shoves for $162

I called because I calculated in my head that I had 12 outs which gives me a 48% chance to get my flush or my straight using the 4 and 2 estimate.(4x12=48%) I put his range as AA, KK, AK, QQ

I lost the hand as the run out was..
Turn :Ts and River :6h

I thought this was a good call but when I put the hand into Poker Snowie it said it was -12 EV and that I should have folded. I used the equity calculator here and it shows that I am +14 positive EV in this position. What did I calculate wrong?

I am not sure how pokersnowie got that determination.
Was this a bad call? Should I have folded?

Villan had :As :Ac

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 6
    First off, if qq is in his range he is blocking your straight outs, meaning your calculation is wrong, off the bat. However, while it is in his preflop range, shoving qq here is unlikely. What you'll most likely see, if a Q is involved, is aqdd, which has you in terrible shape.

    Anyway, that doesnt matter too much, because your real mistake is calling pre into this 4 spr pre with an easily dominated hand. Snowie probably won't like this call, preferring clearer speculative equity like 67s, although a tougher player can make it sometimes.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    The preflop call is the mistake. You open UTG (with a strong range) yet on the bottom of your range. BB raises (when he could have completed and see a cheap flop), against your UTG range - so rather screaming strength.
    Why calling the 3bet with the bottom of your range ?

    Also when Villain overshove flop (162$ into a 43$), I don't understand how you can continue.

    "Don't pay them off" should be your mantra.
  • KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Thank you for your responses. I did not even consider the SPR. Big mistake.
  • wescrowescro Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    Completely agree with Persuadeo and Red that we should fold pre when at the bottom of our range here. V's 3-bet range against an UTG open is very strong here. But given that the call was made, I think it's an interesting decision on the flop after V shoves.

    Even giving V a 6% open range here, with a few high-equity bluffs thrown in (A9s+, T9s, JTs+, etc), we have 43.9% equity by the river according to Flopzilla. Needing to call $162 to win $203 leaves us 44% equity needed to make the call. So depending on how tight you think V's range is here, I think it's okay to call. The fact that V is all-in and we can guarantee ourselves both streets to realize our draw equity (once again, acknowledging that the bad decision to call pre-flop left us in this less than desirous situation), I don't hate calling here and I think I actually prefer it to a fold.

  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
    Persuadeo is the man.. Looking forward to the SPR is gold and so relevant and something I don't think about enough... Also try to remember that A: Our FD is NOT to the nuts and B: Our hand equity "Would be" virtually a flip vs KK+, JJ, AK, AdQd, but the POT equity is less due to the >3x pot overbet (as stated above).. Less than Break even at best unless you add a few high EQ bluffs at mentioned
  • PsychixtelloPsychixtello Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    edited August 9
    I'm new to the site so here we are with my 1st analysis!

    The first mistake you made is to call the substantial raise with your bottom range cards from a guy that has clearly a decent hand. Also, if you think his range is only the 4 premium hands you mentioned (so no JJ-88), why would he overshove the pot like a maniac with QQ or even KK? I would rather consider AQdd or AA-AKo where one of the 2 is a diamond. In this particular hand, I would remove 1 out (average) for my prediction to be more realistic. Cause to me, his crazy overshove shows clearly protection (AA, AK) with some 1 diamond combos or a semi-bluff that becomes blockers for your FD (AQdd). So some of his combos has a d in it. KK and JJ are no longer in his range after the crazy shove on the flop, so you don't have to really worry about the board pairing to crush your FD. So to me after flop, your opponent range is always AA, AK and AQdd considering his tight image (from your preflop read on him).

    Your second "mistake" is to identify your outs without comparing your equity related to the pot size. So, if you consider that you have an average of 11 outs x 4 = 44 (as explained previously) you are in a situation where you have to put $160 in a pot of $1+$42+160? It's a pot where you need at least 44% equity to break even. In that situation, if you consider the rake and the optional tip, it's an -EV call to me.

    And to conclude, I don't know how your equity software works. Is Pokersnowie automatically inserting V's range? Like an average range-hands that would be played that way in that situation. It may be the reason why you get different results.

    Have a nice day and GL on your next poker session

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