32 suited and a bluff 3bet hand

sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
All hands are live 1/3.

Hand 1:

I'm UTG with :3h :2h and the aggression isn't too big so I go for the limp. MP opens to 20 and there are 2 callers after so I defend.

Flop (5 players, pot $83): :5h :6h :Ks

I check to MP who bets $70. It's very obvious he has AK as he normally opens to 15 and is an old man. It folds around to me. By default for that price and reverse implied odds (he could be holding :Ah :Kh ) I'd fold but as I have the gutshot too I go for the call. Furthermore there is no way anyone is putting in an almost pot bet if they had :Ah :Kh .

Turn (2 players, pot $223): :7c

I check to MP who bets $150. He only has about $150-$200 left so I go for the fold. I figure if I try repping the straight and jam he's still snap calling. With only 2 continuing combos that have hit the straight for this price ( :3h :4h and :8h :9h ) and so many other combos of Kx I believe folding is the best decision here. My question of course is what could I have done better here?

Hand 2:

I'm cut-off and UTG opens to 15, MP calls and I 3bet to 45 with :8c :9s as a bluff. It's very rare I do this but given what info I had and my table image this was a time to 3-bet as UTG is a solid full-time playing reg but always opens to 20 if he has a hand in his upper range. Someone should tell him about his bet sizing. Anyway, UTG and MP call.

Flop (3 players, pot $138): :7h :Th :2D:

Checks to me, the flop hasn't hit my perceived range and I check too.

Turn: (3 players, pot $138): :6d

UTG bets $55. MP folds and I min-raise to $110 to make it look like a bluff. He calls.

River: (2 players, pot $358): :Ad

UTG checks. Too scared of a flush, I check. I win the pot with the straight and he tells me he would've called if I jammed. He had a set of 7s exactly as I expected. Mistakes were definitely made and I could have extracted more value. What should I have done on the river? Was I right to be scared of the flush? He would've opened suited connectors to 15 as well and with two flush draws on the turn I choked on the river.
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Comments

  • sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    Additional info: in hand 1, villain flipped his hand and showed AKo so my prediction was correct.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 6
    I think you need to take a deep breath and start with some basics.

    For instance, give us the stacks first, and not make us piece the story together like a puzzle. That's way more important than finding the colored card icons - it's fundamental to the strategy of the hand(s). NL, as the name implies, is all about the stacks.

    Second, the MP's raise in the first hand is not an open. You opened the betting by calling/aka limping/aka flatting here - that matters, as MP is responding to your action and now charging your action more to continue, as he should. By recognizing that his action is not the opening of the betting, you get to think about his his isolating range, and what kind of strategy you want when you open the betting passively.

    Third, it isn't obvious the "old man" has AK. He has some sort of range, maybe centered on AK, fair, but forcing this information on yourself and others won't help you think through the poker strategy. Further, if you are actually 100% certain of his holding, there is no hand history, as the answer to your predicament is clear.

    Now you're ready to talk about the value of your decisions.
  • Jungle266Jungle266 Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    I think limping UTG (or in any position for that matter) with small suited connectors in most small stakes games will lose money in the long run. Our flushes and straights will often be dominated and many times we will find ourselves in really tough spots where making the wrong decision will be very -EV instead of 'slightly' -EV. Sure, it's impossible to say that 'such and such' is ALWAYS a bad play. But, in most cases, limping these kinds of hands is going to cause us nothing but grief and the times we win will not make up for our losses.
  • ROI RUINERROI RUINER Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    I can’t imagine any scenario where playing 32s UTG is +EV. Also I don’t ever see any scenario where limping UTG is +EV unless it is to limp raise with a strong hand vs habitual squeezers.

    The only other time I will limp is in a “no fold em” situation “where players have to see the flop and there’s not much I can do to prevent it and I think it’s a good idea to set mine small pairs (66-22).

  • Jungle266Jungle266 Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    I guess what I'm getting at, and this is a bit off the topic at hand (pun!), is that I try (and fail!) not to think in absolutes about hands...even if this is taking that idea to an extreme. For instance, if we knew that we could call, not get raised PF, and that everyone would fold to a flop bet greater than the BE% then we could take that line. I'm not saying to do it here...I'm just saying that in some universe that's what's happening.
  • sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Third, it isn't obvious the "old man" has AK. He has some sort of range, maybe centered on AK, fair, but forcing this information on yourself and others won't help you think through the poker strategy. Further, if you are actually 100% certain of his holding, there is no hand history, as the answer to your predicament is clear.

    Now you're ready to talk about the value of your decisions.

    You're right. I was too excited at being correct. He could have had aces, kings or AK. All would have been played the same way minus AhKh. I typed this up after leaking about $400 and wasn't in the right mindset. Apologies.

    Effective stack for hand 1 was ~$350-$400 (old man's stack).

    Effective stack for hand 2 was ~$345. On the river villain had about $200 left behind.
    Lagtard wrote: »
    I can’t imagine any scenario where playing 32s UTG is +EV. Also I don’t ever see any scenario where limping UTG is +EV unless it is to limp raise with a strong hand vs habitual squeezers.

    The only other time I will limp is in a “no fold em” situation “where players have to see the flop and there’s not much I can do to prevent it and I think it’s a good idea to set mine small pairs (66-22).

    This is true. It was towards the end of the night and I was doing one of those "let's hope for a quick buck before we leave" plays.

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