Poker Snowie says this was a mistake

KJoKJo VermontRed Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
Played on ACR $1-2$ NLH
Folds to me ($277.50) on the button. I have...

:Kc :Qs
I raise it to $4

Big Blind($66.72) 3 bets to $16

Effective stack $52.72 SPR=2.5

I call and the flop comes...
:8d :Js :Ks

Villan bets $10.40

I call and the turn comes...

:4h

Villan shoves...

I fold.

Poker Snowie says I should have called Villan's all-in.

I can't figure out why... I put villan on AA, KK, AK, QQ or JJs when I called his 3bet.
If he would have had a set of JJs or KKs I think he would have checked the flop but maybe he was afraid of the flush draw and decided to bet it. So most likely he would have AA in this spot. I guess he also could have 3bet with 88s but not likely. I think I made the correct fold here. Is Poker Snowie telling me to call the shove because it is such a small shove amount?

Thanks for your help

Comments

  • boyd148boyd148 Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    If villain's initial stack size of $66.72 is correct, then your SPR going to the flop is more like 1.5 ( $16*2 plus SB of $1 is a pot of $33. $66.72-$16 = $50.72 effective stack. $ 50.72/$33 = 1.5 SPR. )
    The pot on the turn would be $53.8 and the shove would be for $40.32 so that is about 80% of pot and would not be considered a small bet.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,034 -
    Is Snowie saying you should fold after you manually enter in V's range, or is Snowie making it's suggestion based upon its own range/frequency assumptions?

    Knowing the answer to this is crucial when trying to understand output from tools like Snowie and various solvers/line suggestors.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 971 ✭✭✭✭
    Either you think his range is wide enough for his 3 bet that you call with KQ preflop, and given stacks have to get it in if you hit top pair...

    Or you think his 3 bet range is tight (as you do), and you have to fold preflop....

    I always remember an Ed MIller hand is some video many moons ago...where he 3 bets the btn...from the SB with 33 and the BB who is short shoves on him and he has to call (OOOPs) but the point was he had to call given stacks....As I remember the BB then berated Ed for being a fish....

    Its on of the reason good players keep SPR in mind before they make the bet or call....not after...

  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 56 ✭✭
    I think the 3betting range you assigned villain is way too tight for an online $200NL game. It is also BTN vs BB and ranges will be wide. As others said because the SPR is so low he has no choice but to shove on the turn. With the given SPR and the fact that you beat a lot of bluffs like :As x, T9, QT this is a call.

  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 103 ✭✭
    It'd be nice to see some stats on V..Could sway ranges a bit. Don't forget that 3betting should almost always have a ratio of value and bluff combos which means V gets to the flop with more than just value. He should probably bet ALL his value on Flop. This board is quite wet. I'm not slow playing anything. Also the Fcbet size is 1/3 pot..This may be due to stack size or ?? Either way IF you call the flop bet you'd better be planning to call it off due to <1 Turn SPR and TPGK. IF we know for sure V NEVER has bluffs on the flop or turn then overfold. The weird stack size PRE flop is a problem, especially in 3b pots. IMO you either fold PRE or stack off with TP although you do block some of his best semi-bluff combos.
    Here's one (there are many examples) PRE BB 3b v BU open range.. It's about a 1.5 value to 1 bluff combo ratio..Stats and sample size matter. If a plyr 3bets ONLY value combos then "hypothetically" fold everything.

    2kju9kqfddxp.png

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