Winning Players - Help me get a sense of variance!

SenhouseSenhouse Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
I’m not new to poker having played tons of limit hold’em but I’m new to NLHE. I’ve been playing 1-3, and am 50 hours in. Finally had my first real bad session. Lost with AK vs AA on AKx board, set of 5s to a turned gutshot, etc.

My request: if you are a proven winner, show me the results from your last 10-20 sessions.

Mine are: -90, 130, 38, 432, 58, 53, 60, 568, and the rough one -610. Sessions all between 4 and 7 hours.

I’d love to have a better idea of what to expect.

Thanks!
Chris

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    Most proven winners win 2 of 3 sessions unless they are manufacturing wins by locking them in once ahead.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 964 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 10
    not sure how helpfull this will be...

    Its mixed between 1-2 and 1-3 most session are about 4 hours ..most are played late afternoon or early evening....in Atlantic City....

    -413 (yesterday ...and one bad beat in a 900 pot, but then again I have given a few too)
    -94
    +15
    +119
    +226
    +289
    -27
    -226
    +90
    +135
    -137
    -185
    +279
    +602 (includes a $100 rake back earned previous month)
    +643
    -183
    -61
    +129
    +21
    +213

  • SenhouseSenhouse Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Thanks Eazzy! That was great. Anyone else?
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 376 ✭✭✭
    What do you hope to gain from such a small snapshot? If I were to post 20 winning sessions in a row or 20 losing sessions in a row, what would that say? 50 hours of table time is a week for some grinders and a year for others.

    Instead of lamenting about recent results focus on improving how you play the game.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    If you really want to know what to expect, Ed has some insight:

    “If you let it, no-limit hold ’em will torture you in nearly every way imaginable. Eventually you’ll hit a stretch, weeks maybe, where you’ll lose every single all-in pot, whether you get it in good or bad. You’ll run the biggest bluff of your life and some guy will snap-call with king high – and win – and you’ll sit stupefied wondering how he could make that call. Then he’ll say he misread his hand and thought he had a straight.” (The Course, p.211.)

    See also: https://redchippoker.com/poker-downswings-the-final-mental-game-frontier/
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭✭
    Senhouse wrote: »
    Mine are: -90, 130, 38, 432, 58, 53, 60, 568, and the rough one -610. Sessions all between 4 and 7 hours.
    Losing 610 at 1/3$ or 2 buy-ins is totally normal and expected, esp. if it occurs in possible cooler situation.
    Not rough, not abnormal. Buckle up for up to several buy-ins lost per session if you play poker.

    Also comparing winerates from different rooms doesn't mean much. You can crush a tight room yet winning little. Or be a bad player in a wild spazzy room, yet winning huge. But if you only compare the winning/losses, the 2nd ones seems better.
  • SenhouseSenhouse Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Not sure why my post could be read as lamenting anything. Given the big hands that were totally reasonable, of course that worst loss day wasn’t outrageous. I am just curious how big and erratic the swings will be.

    I’m a teacher (and don’t have children of my own) so I expect to be playing a lot every summer and long holiday weekends. I do want my mental game to be strong which is why I was looking for how often to expect big down days and such.

    Thanks for the link, Kat. I’ll go check it out now.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    Welcome
    Moderation In Moderation
  • U_TurnU_Turn Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    I started CORE and keeping records mid-December 2018:

    qixivxvq5qpd.png
    mm3sepkc3gob.png
  • SenhouseSenhouse Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    That’s awesome U Turn! Thanks!
  • Gameaholic21Gameaholic21 New JerseyRed Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    @U_Turn What tracking app is that? Do you like it/recommend it?

    I've been using Poker Analytics 5, which I like, Just trying to explore what else is out there
  • U_TurnU_Turn Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    @U_Turn What tracking app is that? Do you like it/recommend it?

    I've been using Poker Analytics 5, which I like, Just trying to explore what else is out there
    It’s called Pokerbase. I like it and I would recommend it. It’s free and it seems to have all the major features of some of the paid apps.

    It has some cool extra tools built in:
    mw86h00edjtz.png

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 17
    Here is my online SNG graph from back in the day. If you're looking for a sense of variance, the last 10-20 sessions are nothing. You could take any 500 game stretch in there and conclude anything you wanted to conclude.

    raoa3f27rmb5.jpg
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    The graph in my downswings article is from my sessions but left-right reflected, since if my results were as shown I'd be living under a bridge.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    The graph in my downswings article is from my sessions but left-right reflected, since if my results were as shown I'd be living under a bridge.

    You don't live under a bridge?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,281 -
    persuadeo wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    The graph in my downswings article is from my sessions but left-right reflected, since if my results were as shown I'd be living under a bridge.

    You don't live under a bridge?

    I vacation under a bridge, I live in a condo.
    Moderation In Moderation

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file