10NL: KK BB 3B vs CO 3x RFI, Paired Flop OOP

DoubleBarrelDoubleBarrel Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 870 ✭✭✭
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: $10.05 (VPIP: 18.94, PFR: 13.66, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 233)
Hero (BB): $10.35
UTG: $10.10 (VPIP: 27.91, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
CO: $22.54 (VPIP: 32.31, PFR: 21.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)
BTN: $12.40 (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 25.76, 3Bet Preflop: 12.90, Hands: 67)

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Kc Ks
fold, CO raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.10, CO calls $0.80

Flop : ($2.25, 2 players) 3c 9c 8h
Hero bets $1.32, CO calls $1.32

Turn : ($4.89, 2 players) 8s
Hero checks, CO bets $4.89, Hero ???

Comments

  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    edited August 10
    Before getting into flopzilla and exploring Vs range I think im shoving every time here. His large bet is polarizing and I dont think V is betting pot with trips or full house. I think its more likely that you've shown weakness and he's trying to push you off the pot assuming you have something like AK, AQ. He could have a smaller pair, a good draw or even air. There are lots of scary turn cards and it will be hard for you to play well OOP on the river so thats why I would shove here.

    After opening with 37% I've given him this range of 22% to call your 3bet. His nut hands are weighted 50%. Maybe sometimes he flats and sometimes he 4bets. With only 66 hands its hard to determine his range but they seem pretty laggy so we'll go with that.
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    You were crushing Vs range pre w/ 77% equity and that doesnt change on this flop. Notice you're only behind sets, 2 pair and AA which makes up about 5% of his range.
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    After he calls your cbet Im assuming V is going to float a lot and call with any draw, reasonable bluff catcher like smaller pairs or of course his nut hands. You still have 72% equity vs his continuing range.
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    The turn card is actually good for you and you're equity increases to 77%. You're only beat by 13% of Vs range. Now you've shown weakness and he's likely betting with 100% of his range, especially if he's just floating on the flop thinking you have 2 high cards.
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    So V bets and you can see he can reasonably bet with 100% of his range which is all nuts, draws and bluff catchers. You STILL HAVE 77% equity here.
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    So yeah, Im shoving. I think you've induced a bluff or even a bad value bet. You're only beat 13% of the time.


  • DoubleBarrelDoubleBarrel Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 870 ✭✭✭
    edited August 11
    :D Thank you for such in depth analysis. I'm working through this and I notice that one of the problems I have when doing such off table work - and when range estimating at the tables - is that I give villain(s) too narrow of a range. Do you really think he's calling my 3b that wide pre? Do you keep him that wide after my cbet? Combos like T7s, 85s, etc?
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Joseph F wrote: »
    Do you really think he's calling my 3b that wide pre?
    MrFuss wrote: »
    After opening with 37% I've given him this range of 22% to call your 3bet.
    Based on his laggy stats, yes. I didnt show his opening range but it was 37% which is pretty standard for a laggy player in the CO position. He folds over 1/3 of his hands to make the call which seems reasonable. It might be a tad wide but but narrowing it down a little isnt going to effect your equity too much. In fact you would be removing some of the middle suited connectors that hit this board so you may even gain a larger advantage. If you have equilab or flopzilla play around with this spot and see what it looks like. Start with my range, then make it a bit wider, then a bit tigher. Look at linear and polar ranges etc... If you do explore this spot further Id be interested to see what you find.
    Joseph F wrote: »
    Do you keep him that wide after my cbet? Combos like T7s, 85s, etc?
    T7s has an OESD and if its Tc7c he has an OESD & a flush draw. No one is folding that. 85s catches a pair on a middle board and worth a float in position against a 3bettor who may only have high cards. If its behind to an overpair it has outs and in this case would have caught trips on the turn. If you did have AK in this spot you would check the turn, V would bet and you would fold.

    In core there's a lesson where Splitsuit says you should be continuing with 70% of hands on each street. In this example V continues with 65% on the flop. You must continue with your draws and pairs with appropriate pot odds in order to not get exploited.
    Joseph F wrote: »
    I'm working through this and I notice that one of the problems I have when doing such off table work - and when range estimating at the tables - is that I give villain(s) too narrow of a range.
    My guess is that you're projecting your own style of play onto your opponenets. I based Vs range on his stats which are quite laggy. High VPIP, high PFR. You only have 66 hands but thats what we have to go by so we do our best to estimate the range. Also take into consideration that this is 10NL and in general the player pool is going to be more splashy then at higher stakes.
  • DoubleBarrelDoubleBarrel Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 870 ✭✭✭
    edited August 11
    When it comes to the 70% model, do you agree with it? The math that's rooted in it? Do you think that some of it's criticism comes from folks who misunderstand/misapply it?

    for the record - I have flopzilla, power equilab, gto+, etc lol. I like the software tools available in this game.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 103 ✭✭
    Firstly 66 hands is NOT a viable hand sample amount to make many firm judgements. Be careful.. My ranges are quite different but without getting into it You should almost always cbet the turn but, as played, I like the x/shove flop for sure regardless.. sometimes it's a cooler but it's pretty much mandatory.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    oblivius wrote: »
    Firstly 66 hands is NOT a viable hand sample amount to make many firm judgements. Be careful..
    Definitely agree.
    MrFuss wrote: »
    With only 66 hands its hard to determine his range but they seem pretty laggy so we'll go with that.
    Poker is a game of limited info so we do the best with what we have. Its also much harder to have a "false positive" for an aggro player than it is for a nitty player. With 66 hands and VPIP of 33 at a 6-handed table, that means villian is playing about 2 hands per orbit over 10 orbits. Thats a lot of action. Sure he could be on a heater but thats fairly unlikely.
    oblivius wrote: »
    My ranges are quite different but without getting into it
    Why not get into it? Thats what the forum and these discussions are for. Id be interested to see a different range analysis and Im sure OP would too.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Joseph F wrote: »
    When it comes to the 70% model, do you agree with it?
    It depends on your situation. The 70% model is part of a balanced strategy which aims to make your play unexploitable. At lower stakes I think this becomes less relevant and exploitative play becomes much more profitable as players actions are typically more face up. However I think anyone posting on this forum aspires to level up and developing good solid strategies will help you succeed when that time comes.

    One of the main aspects I like about the 70% strategy is that its foundation is good starting ranges. Typically if you find yourself folding too often its because you have too much junk in your range. If all you have is the nuts then you're probably playing too tight and can open up a little bit.


  • DoubleBarrelDoubleBarrel Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 870 ✭✭✭
    MrFuss wrote: »
    Joseph F wrote: »
    When it comes to the 70% model, do you agree with it?
    It depends on your situation. The 70% model is part of a balanced strategy which aims to make your play unexploitable. At lower stakes I think this becomes less relevant and exploitative play becomes much more profitable as players actions are typically more face up. However I think anyone posting on this forum aspires to level up and developing good solid strategies will help you succeed when that time comes.

    One of the main aspects I like about the 70% strategy is that its foundation is good starting ranges. Typically if you find yourself folding too often its because you have too much junk in your range. If all you have is the nuts then you're probably playing too tight and can open up a little bit.


    What I find most interesting about this topic is how the solvers largely wind up supporting the 70% model. Like warfare, the model isn't necessarily going to hold up to all enemy resistance but is a starting point and foundation - as is GTO itself - and from there you find your routes to exploitation.
  • MrFussMrFuss Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Which way to you know to go if you dont know where you started from? :)

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