Check Raise Flop?

obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
2nl 6max
Villain BU 100bb eff

BU opens 2x and Hero flats in BB with :Js :8c
FLOP :Qd :6s :5s (4.5bb)
Check, V bets 3bb
I flat but really think after the fact that I should have x/raised this flop
I know ranges are wide for both players and BU should have a modest range advantage but calling seems like a lower EV play. Looking for some analysis, here's mine.

IF: Villain flats there are a bunch of good turn cards I can barrel ie, 4,7,9,T,Q, spades
I'm blocking a small part of his str8 draws and some QJ combos.....
IF: Villain raises I can fold
IF: Villain folds that'd be best of all says Captain Obvious...

I might raise TP some percentage of the time as well..... OK thanks in advance

Comments

  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    I think you have much better hands in your range to x/r with. If you were to x/r I think villain will continue with overpairs, good Qx, 65 and good flush draws. Against that range you're not doing too well. Even if a spade comes on the turn he will still have some flushes in his range and some of his Qx and overpairs will pick up a flush draw on the turn. OOP and against a large sizing I think this is a fold on the flop.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 11
    RyanH1995 wrote: »
    I think you have much better hands in your range to x/r with. If you were to x/r I think villain will continue with overpairs, good Qx, 65 and good flush draws. Against that range you're not doing too well. Even if a spade comes on the turn he will still have some flushes in his range and some of his Qx and overpairs will pick up a flush draw on the turn. OOP and against a large sizing I think this is a fold on the flop.

    Good construction theme, but this is exactly the argument to make this xr, as BU should continue much lighter than this, and if he is not, an expanded xr can make perfect sense.
    Check, V bets 3bb
    I flat
    ...and far, far better than this choice, especially vs sizing.
  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    @persuadeo How wide would do you think BU should continue vs BB x/r would you include all open enders and hands like :Jd :Td ? If BU is not defending enough vs a x/r wouldn't that just put you up against a stronger range on turns and rivers?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    RyanH1995 wrote: »
    @persuadeo If BU is not defending enough vs a x/r wouldn't that just put you up against a stronger range on turns and rivers?

    Well obviously.

    I think you are assuming J8o is supposed to put in more chips after the xr fails, whereas much of a XR raise is going to X turn on many cards as values shift in any case.
    How wide would do you think BU should continue vs BB x/r would you include all open enders and hands like :Jd :Td ?

    BU should let go of the bottom of his cbet range, like Ax that chose not to go for SDV, and pure garbage. Pairs and direct draws need to continue for the most part, as the XR is just too easy and draw heavy for BB here.
  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    I think I understand. I was more concerned with how J8o would win the pot on turns and rivers rather than focusing on how often the x/r would just take down the pot on the flop.

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